2025 World Series Betting Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Units on the Field	Edge
Offense vs RHP	Dodgers (Light Edge)
Offense vs LHP	Wash
Starting Pitching	Dodgers (Strong Edge)
Bullpen	Wash
Defense	Blue Jays (Strong Edge)
Baserunning	Dodgers (Light Edge)

The Bat X Projection: Dodgers (78.8%), Blue Jays (21.2%)

Before diving into the positional breakdowns, let’s start with the numbers. According to The Bat X, the Dodgers have a 78.8% chance to win the series — a shocking figure that implies a true line closer to -370. The current betting line of -220 implies just a 68.75% win probability, meaning that if you trust the Bat X model, betting the Dodgers carries roughly a 14.5% expected value, which is enormous.

That said, it’s just one model — albeit my favorite, given its award-winning track record for accuracy. Other FanGraphs projections tell a similar story: the general FanGraphs model gives the Dodgers a 67.1% chance (-204), ATC has them at 76.0% (-317), and OOPSY puts them at 68.1% (-213).

It’s worth noting these models don’t factor in the vig — the sportsbook’s built-in commission — but even without it, none of the FanGraphs systems show value on the Blue Jays at +180. In fact, each projection suggests that backing Toronto would be a negative expected value wager — a big no-no in betting.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the series is over before it starts. Models are just tools, not gospel. But they do help explain why the Dodgers are priced so heavily: every reputable projection system either aligns with the market or finds value on L.A.

Offense: 

Position	Dodgers	Blue Jays	Edge
DH	Shohei Ohtani	Bo Bichette	Dodgers
1B	Freddie Freeman	Vladimir Guerrero Jr	Blue Jays
2B	Tommy Edman	Ernie Clement	Blue jays
3B	Max Muncy	Addison Barger	Dodgers
SS	Mookie Betts	Andres Gimenez	Dodgers
LF	Enrique Hernandez	Nathan Lukes	Dodgers
CF	Andy Pages	Daulton Varsho	Blue Jays
RF	Teoscar Hernandez	George Springer	Blue Jays
C	Will Smith	Alejandro Kirk	Dodgers

At first glance, the Dodgers and Blue Jays appear evenly matched. The Dodgers posted a 113 wRC+ in the regular season, just ahead of Toronto’s 112. Los Angeles tied with Seattle for the second-best mark in baseball; Toronto was right behind. However, when we line them up, one team reigns supreme.

First Base: Freddie Freeman vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr

The Blue Jays’ best player, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., has been the hottest hitter of the postseason. Across from him stands the 2024 World Series MVP, Freddie Freeman, who hasn’t yet found his usual postseason rhythm. Would anyone be shocked if Freeman outperformed him in this series? I’ll give the nod to Vladdy, but don’t be surprised if Freeman flips the script like he did last October.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Centerfield: Daulton Varsho vs. Andy Pages

Another edge for the Toronto Blue Jays. Both rank in the 94th percentile or higher in Outs Above Average, so defense is essentially even. But Varsho’s 123 wRC+ tops Pages’ 113. Pages looked like an All-Star in the first half, but unless he rediscovers that form, Varsho is the better player right now.

Advantage: Blue Jays

DH: Bo Bichette vs. Shohei Ohtani

There is no contest here. While Bichette is a supremely talented hitter who would have led MLB in hits this season if he stayed healthy, his counterpart is arguably the greatest player who has ever lived. Not sure people are even debating who the best is anymore, but overall greatness will be a debate for a very long time. Even if Bichette was 110% healthy, the clear edge goes towards Ohtani.

Advantage: Dodgers, decisively. 

Shortstop: Andres Gimenez vs. Mookie Betts

Andres Gimenez has had some big moments so far in the playoffs, but he’s no Mookie Betts. Even defensively, you might take Mookie at short, as he was a deserved Gold Glove finalist. Mookie put up a .900 OPS in September and has an .809 OPS so far in the playoffs.

Advantage: Dodgers, decisively. 

Catcher: Alejandro Kirk vs. Will Smith

Alejandro Kirk quietly became one of baseball’s best catchers this year. Consistently elite defensively, he’s now among the top offensive catchers too, leading MLB in two-strike hitting. Heading into 2026, I have him as a top-five catcher in the game.

Will Smith, on the other hand, is the second-best catcher in the game. He’s not quite the defender Kirk is, but it doesn’t seem to matter; the Dodgers’ pitching staff has no problem with him. On top of that, he’s the second-best hitter at the position, no question about it.

Advantage: Dodgers

Left Field: Enrique Hernandez vs Nathan Lukes 

Enrique has an .863 OPS in 96 career postseason games and is hitting .306 this October. Lukes owns a .791 OPS through 11 playoff games — roughly in line with his 103 regular-season wRC+. Lukes is a solid contributor, but in October, experience matters. Enrique has proven to be a different animal this time of year.

Advantage: Dodgers

Third Base: Max Muncy vs Addison Barger

This one is pretty close, but Muncy’s track record is too strong to ignore. Over 72 career postseason games, he owns an .821 OPS and posted an .846 OPS this season. Since switching to glasses on April 30th, he’s posted a 161 wRC+, the eighth-best mark in MLB. His plate discipline and power make him one of the most underrated hitters in baseball.

I like Addison Barger a lot; he’s got a rocket for an arm, and he can hit a home run at any moment. He’s put up an .889 OPS in the postseason so far. He’s an excellent player, but he lacks the postseason experience and overall MLB track record of Muncy.

Advantage: Dodgers

Right Field: George Springer vs Teoscar Hernandez 

A battle of two postseason heavyweights, but Springer rises to the top. His 23 home runs in the playoffs are tied for the third most all-time. His .883 OPS over 78 games is something to marvel at. Even on one knee, the man is built for the most significant moments, and has a World Series MVP under his belt after he beat the Dodgers back in 2017.

Teoscar Hernandez can also swing it with the best of them in October. He’s posted a .888 OPS this postseason, and his .828 OPS in his playoff career is fantastic. However, he just isn’t George Springer. The advantage goes to Toronto.

Advantage: Blue Jays 

Second Base: Tommy Edman vs Ernie Clement 

Clement’s postseason has been electric — slugging over .600 with a strikeout rate under 5%. He’s become one of the most enjoyable hitters to watch and holds his own defensively at multiple positions. He’s been a big reason why the Blue Jays have made it this far, and he deserves all the credit in the world.

Tommy Edman is tough company. However, he’s coming off arguably his worst regular season to date, as he’s been bitten by the injury bug. Edman has been solid in October thus far, rocking a .791 OPS. Ernie is over 1.000.

I want to stick with Edman due to the experience, but in this case, I’m rolling with the hot hand, especially considering his regular season was better than Edman’s this year. Advantage Blue Jays.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Roster Flexibility and Benches

Some Jays fans argued that George Springer should shift to right field with Bo Bichette moving to DH — a fair point that would give Toronto another edge in this lineup comparison exercise. But even with that adjustment, my overall stance doesn’t change. Unless Bichette is fully healthy, moving him off shortstop doesn’t move the needle enough to bridge the gap.

The benches for both teams are similar. Neither has any looming bats, but plenty of solid contributors. We haven’t seen either team utilize their bench players much beyond defensive replacements.

Final Edge: Dodgers

When I lay it all out, the Dodgers have the stronger lineup, winning the lineup comparison battle 5-4, but some of their edges are enormous, while every one for Toronto is much closer. Toronto has enough talent to compete — their lineup depth and postseason momentum are real — but Los Angeles brings more firepower, more experience, and more star power to each matchup.

One final wrinkle favors L.A.: they won’t face any left-handed starters in this series. The Dodgers crush high-octane righties, and their lineup is built to exploit exactly that.

The Blue Jays have had a magical run, but the Dodgers’ combination of elite stars, deep supporting cast, and postseason poise makes them the more complete team and the clear favorite heading into this matchup.

Starting Pitching

Dodgers	Blue Jays	Edge
Blake Snell	Trey Yesavage	Dodgers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Kevin Gausman	Dodgers
Tyler Glasnow	Shane Bieber	Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani	Chris Bassitt/Max Scherzer	Dodgers

This is where the talent gap widens exponentially. The Dodgers have one of the greatest postseason rotations in baseball history. It’s not just name value — all four are pitching at the peak of their powers. The Blue Jays have a strong staff, but their ace, Kevin Gausman, likely wouldn’t even crack this Dodgers rotation.

Game 1: Blake Snell vs. Trey Yesavage

Blake Snell faced the Blue Jays on August 9 and dominated — five shutout innings with ten strikeouts and three hits allowed. He’s been nothing short of brilliant this postseason, pitching to a 0.86 ERA over 21 innings with a 28-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Snell also threw five shutout innings against Toronto in 2024 as a Giant, and across 79 career innings versus the Jays, he owns a 2.39 ERA.

The Dodgers haven’t seen Yesavage, but you can bet they’ve been studying film. He leans on a fastball, slider, and splitter — and no team in baseball hit those three pitches better than the Dodgers, who ranked first in xwOBA (.363) against right-handed versions of them. The Yankees ranked third, and Seattle ninth — two teams that Yesavage handled well. The Dodgers will be his toughest test, but he’s capable of holding his own.

Still, the edge belongs clearly to Snell, who’s sharpening an already elite 2.58 career postseason ERA.

Game 2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Kevin Gausman

The Blue Jays haven’t faced Yamamoto — only Isiah Kiner-Falefa has seen him before. With seven pitches in his arsenal, Yamamoto is unpredictable and efficient. He’s been nearly as good as Snell, logging a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 innings with an 18-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s tougher on lefties (2.39 FIP) than righties (3.49), which plays slightly in Toronto’s favor given their right-handed core of Springer, Guerrero, Kirk, and Clement.

Yamamoto ranks in the 91st percentile in groundball rate, so if he stays down, he’ll cruise. But if the Jays elevate, they can end his night quickly.

Gausman hasn’t faced the Dodgers this year, but last season he tossed seven innings of one-run ball against them. Dodgers hitters have a career .757 OPS off him, with Mookie Betts being the one standout success. The Dodgers’ lineup profiles well against his pitch mix, but that doesn’t guarantee they’ll wallop him. Gausman’s consistency should carry over here.

Yamamoto is the more talented arm, but this matchup could finish closer than it looks on paper.

Game 3: Tyler Glasnow vs. Shane Bieber

Tyler Glasnow has been fantastic this postseason, but this might be his toughest test. His first two playoff starts came in the afternoon at Dodger Stadium, where shadows helped him — and World Series games won’t offer that same advantage.

He faced Toronto once this year and allowed two runs over 5.2 innings — solid, but far from untouchable. Springer and Guerrero are a combined 12-for-30 (.400) lifetime against him, so the Jays have seen him well. It wouldn’t be surprising if this ends up as Glasnow’s bumpiest outing of the playoffs.

Bieber hasn’t faced the Dodgers since 2022 and isn’t quite the same pitcher he once was, but he’s still capable of frontline stuff. The Dodgers crush right-handed pitching, and they’ve seen him before. Expect offense here more than anywhere else.

Glasnow remains the superior pitcher, but matchup-wise, this one’s the closest call.

Game 4: Shohei Ohtani vs. Chris Bassitt/Max Scherzer

This is where the gap becomes glaring. Bassitt has struggled against the Dodgers, carrying a 6.23 ERA across 30.1 innings. He faced them earlier this season and gave up three runs in 4.2 innings. His steadier outings against them came back in 2022 as a Met, but that wasn’t this version of the Dodgers — and it shows.

What will Max Scherzer do? Who knows. There was no reason to point towards a good outing for him against Seattle, but he did it. He’s a future Hall of Famer, and even at 41 years old, it’s hard to doubt him. But this is the Dodgers at the end of the day.

The Blue Jays haven’t seen Ohtani since 2022, when he was with the Angels. Springer and Guerrero squared him up that day, but Ohtani has evolved massively since then. At this point, doubting Shohei feels foolish.

Clear edge: Dodgers, decisively.

Final Edge: Dodgers

The Dodgers are running out four aces. From a pure talent standpoint, none of Toronto’s arms match up. The Blue Jays’ lineup has had pockets of success against some of these pitchers, so they can still compete — but we’ve heard that before. The same was said about the Phillies and Brewers, and the Dodgers’ rotation silenced both.

If this series comes down to starting pitching, it’s an advantage for the Dodgers — and it’s not particularly close.

Bullpen

Dodgers	Blue Jays	Edge
Roki Sasaki	Jeff Hoffman	Wash
Alex Vesia	Seranthony Dominguez	Dodgers
Anthony Banda	Louie Varland	Blue Jays
Blake Treinen	Mason Fluharty	Wash
Emmett Sheehan	Braydon Fisher	Dodgers
Jack Dreyer	Brendon Little	Dodgers
Edgardo Henriquez	Yariel Rodriguez	Blue Jays
Tanner Scott	Max Scherzer	Who knows
Ben Casparius	Eric Lauer	Blue Jays

We don’t have the final rosters yet, so take this with a grain of salt. This is just my best guess of who we will see. It’s also nearly impossible to directly compare bullpen arms. Sometimes they have it, sometimes they don’t. The more often these teams see each other’s bullpen arms, the better.

The Dodgers don’t have a strong bullpen, but their starters have made that a moot point — Roki Sasaki is the only reliever who’s thrown more than five innings this postseason. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have three relievers who’ve logged at least six innings.

The most crucial factor here is matchups. One area of concern for Los Angeles is their lack of right-handed relievers built to handle Toronto’s lineup loaded with righties. In a big spot against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or George Springer, who’s getting the call?

The same question applies to Toronto. Who can they trust to neutralize Shohei Ohtani or Freddie Freeman? And if they stick with a lefty, they’ll have to deal with a run of right-handed bats in Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernández.

At this point, both bullpens feel like a free-for-all. The only defined strengths are at closer — and even there, uncertainty lingers. Jeff Hoffman finished the ALCS on a high note, but can he sustain it? Roki Sasaki has been electric in his new role, but it’s still a small sample. Can he replicate that dominance against Toronto?

Neither team’s bullpen inspires much confidence. The Dodgers’ relief corps has looked better this postseason, but they haven’t been truly tested yet. In terms of talent, I lean towards the Blue Jays. However, the Dodgers’ pitchers will go a lot longer than the Blue Jays’ arms, so Toronto will see the bullpen less, giving LA the advantage.

I think it’s fair to call this one a wash.

Defense and Baserunning

The Blue Jays are the best defensive team in Major League Baseball. They finished first in Fielding Run Value, and it’s shown throughout the postseason — this team rarely makes mistakes.

The key question now is Bo Bichette’s role. If he plays shortstop, it weakens the defense slightly. Suppose he DHs and George Springer moves to right field, that also hurts, since Addison Barger is the superior defender and isn’t dealing with a knee issue. Regardless of alignment, Toronto’s defense is clearly better than the Dodgers’.

That’s not to say the Dodgers are poor defensively — they’re just average. They finished middle of the pack in Fielding Run Value and have been roughly league-average in the playoffs as well. The Mariners, whom they just beat, ranked 26th in Fielding Run Value, while the Dodgers ranked 17th.

This is Toronto’s most significant edge in the series. The question is whether the Blue Jays can make enough contact actually to test the Dodgers’ gloves in tight games, which could be the difference.

On the bases, the advantage swings back to Los Angeles. The Dodgers finished inside the top 10 in Baserunning Runs, while the Blue Jays ranked 23rd.

That said, baserunning hasn’t played a significant role for either team this postseason — they’ve combined for just three stolen bases, and neither has made a glaring mistake on the bases. Both finished in the bottom 10 in stolen bases during the regular season.

The edge goes to the Dodgers, but it’s likely to have minimal impact on the series. But every edge matters, so it could end up rearing its head in this series.

Important Stats To Know

The Dodgers see the fifth most pitches per plate appearance. They grind pitchers out, often leading to shorter outings for the starting pitcher. The Blue Jays are the opposite; it’s an aggressive offense, and they chase outside the zone at the ninth-highest rate in baseball.

The Brewers had the lowest chase rate in baseball, and they still found themselves fishing constantly. They jump on early strikes, which can lead to a barrage of runs early, or keep the starter efficient so they can eat innings. That’s extremely important: will the Blue Jays fall into a rut, or will they force these starters out of the game early?

This is the fifth time since the LCS round became best-of-seven in 1985 that one LCS was a sweep and the other went seven games. In the previous four instances, the team that played the seven-game series went on to win the World Series as well, from this MLB article. 

The Dodgers have won 14 of the previous 19 meetings, including two of three games this past August at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers took the first two games of that series as starters Blake Snell and Clayton Kershaw combined to allow only one earned run over 16 innings pitched. Ernie Clement hit a tiebreaking home run in the top of the ninth inning to help Toronto salvage the finale, from this MLB article. 

A connection between these clubs also resides on each bench. Don Mattingly, the Blue Jays’ bench coach, guided the Dodgers to three NL West titles while serving as their manager from 2011-15, according to this MLB article.

Overall Outlook

Throughout my previews, I’ve backed the Dodgers three different times — including a Dodgers over Blue Jays exacta at +850. I haven’t wavered once. This team might be the best I’ve ever seen.

Their lineup starts with the best player of my lifetime, Shohei Ohtani. Hitting second is Mookie Betts, the modern-day Derek Jeter — and by the time his career ends, he might surpass him. The three-hitter, Freddie Freeman, is a future Hall of Famer and last year’s World Series MVP. Batting cleanup, Will Smith is the second-best catcher in baseball and one of the game’s 15 best hitters since May 1st. Fifth is Teoscar Hernández, an all-time postseason performer. Sixth, the NLCS MVP, Tommy Edman. Seventh, a 40-homer threat with elite plate discipline in Max Muncy. Eighth, Enrique Hernández, who has never seen a moment too big. And ninth, Andy Pages, an elite defender who’s already hit at an All-Star level.

Then there’s the rotation — arguably the greatest postseason staff ever assembled. The 1998 Braves had Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. The 2019 Astros had Verlander, Cole, and Greinke. But none of those rotations had a number four like Shohei Ohtani. And the Dodgers’ top three — Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow — can go toe-to-toe with any trio in the history of the sport.

Before October began, I said the World Series winner would come out of the Dodgers–Phillies matchup. The Dodgers didn’t even play their best baseball — and still won in four. The Brewers were arguably the best team in the league, and L.A. dismantled them. Are we sure the Blue Jays are better than the Brewers or Phillies? That’s not a knock on Toronto; it’s the reality of what they are up against.

It’s one thing to have the highest payroll — it’s another when that payroll is optimized. They’ve proven they can win on the road, and at Dodger Stadium, they’re nearly unbeatable. Toronto needed seven games to get past Seattle, and if not for a George Springer home run, they might not be here. The Mariners are a great team — but they’re not the Dodgers. Not even close.

I already have plenty invested in this series through futures, but if I didn’t, here’s what I’d be betting. Ranked by confidence:

My Prediction: Dodgers in Five.

Suggested Bets

Dodgers to Win the World Series (-220)

Dodgers -1.5 Series Spread (-115) 

Los Angeles Dodgers to Win in Five Games (+350) 

Series Exact Outcome: Dodgers/Dodgers/Blue Jays/Dodgers/Dodgers (+1800) 

Player to Record the Most Hits: Mookie Betts (+650) 

Player to Record the Most RBIs: Teoscar Hernandez (+600) 

Max Muncy World Series MVP (+3000) 

You can find all of these picks on BetMGM.