2026 Fantasy Baseball ADP Guide: Draft Strategy (151-200)

Drew Rasmussen – Health No Longer a Question

When you have had three elbow surgeries, I understand why fantasy players will be cautious when drafting you. Rasmussen was always a talented arm that just could not stay healthy missing most of the 2023 and 2024 seasons. However, in 2025, he started 31 games and finishing with an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth straight season, although sample size varied.

Another year removed from injury should allow Rasmussen more time to build up this offseason and hopefully surpass the 150-inning mark for the first time in his career. We all know the talent he has, and even if the swing-and-miss stuff isn’t as present, the high floor and ceiling make him a worthwhile pick in this range.

He’s not going to walk batters and he comes with an elite groundball rate. A combination that I often look for in pitchers who do not have the best swing and miss stuff. You’ve likely drafted a few higher end arms earlier in the draft so going with a high floor, and relatively high ceiling, pitcher in this range is worth whatever injury risk you might associate with Rasmussen.

Ian Happ – Consistency Matters

As much as we all like to chase upside, pick the fun rookie, the breakout candidate, or the toolsy guys who haven’t put it all together, sometimes you need a healthy baseline. Consistency. Production that you can almost write in sharpie when filling out your team.

That guy is Ian Happ, who will hit 20-25 home runs, post a .340+ OBP, and land somewhere in the 115-125 wRC+ range. Oh yeah, he’s also going to play in 150 or more games, and he has for the past four seasons. The best case outcome with Happ isn’t to the level of lifting your team, but the worst case is still a starting caliber option.

Knowing what you are going to get is a luxury in this range. Happ is not only a consistent player, but he’s now in a Cubs lineup that appears to be improved from last season which should give him ample run production opportunities.

Jonathan Aranda – Limitations Limit Ceiling

To me, Aranda is the perfect case of a good baseball player who is not exactly a good fantasy baseball player. In certain leagues he works, but for the majority of standard leagues I struggle to value Aranda in the top 200.

The Rays have been notorious for playing platoon for a number of years. Aranda, although a strong-side platoon, will still not see much of any playing time when a lefty is on the mound. If that were to change, so would my opinion, but I’m not willing to cross my fingers and hope at this stage in the draft.

Aranda does make great quality of contact (93 mph average exit velocity) but does have some swing and miss to his game. Last season’s .316 batting average came with a .409 BABIP, which I think is hard to be sustainable. Platoon restrictions, mediocre power especially for first base, and coming off a year I find difficult to repeat has me lower on Aranda.

Royce Lewis – Is the Hype Over?

The “what if” story with Royce Lewis has been alive since his debut in 2022. The early flashes were loud, as he hit 15 home runs across 58 games in 2023, but as the sample size and injuries have grown, the production has slowed.

In 2024, Lewis was limited to 82 games where the power still showed up (16 home runs) but the rest of his numbers feel behind. Last season, his first over 100 games, he posted an 85 wRC+, 13 home runs, and a career best 13 stolen bases.

Here’s where I stand: If you have selected a number of safe picks, maybe Lewis is worth the risk. However, the injury history, pedestrian metrics, and questionable lineup have scared me away from Lewis in the top 200. I still wonder if the injuries have changed his career trajectory enough and I don’t want to be the team who has him as we find out.

Matt Shaw – Unclear Path to Playing Time

Matt Shaw’s rookie season did not get off to the best start. However, Shaw turned his .556 first half OPS around and posted a .839 OPS down the stretch and finished with respectable numbers for a rookie. With the addition of Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner still on the roster, I have concerns about playing time.

If the Cubs get creative and create a new path for Shaw to see everyday at bats (position change, trade, etc.) then I’d be “in” on this selection. But, as it stands today, Shaw is looking more like a utility piece, which could give him added positional flexibility.

The tools are there for a top 200 pick and if you are patient, selecting Shaw in this range could pay off once he picks up positional flexibility and an injury helps his playing time outlook. For now, I would look elsewhere in this range but still have Shaw on my list to roll the dice a few rounds later, if he’s still there.