2026 Fantasy Baseball: Closer Confidential – Updating Bullpen Confidence Grades

Two minor changes in this group. I bumped Edwin Díaz a single point, simply on the vibes that seem to exist in LA for him. I love a live trumpet also, so that might have much to do with it. Díaz and Mason Miller may have lead changes for highest confidence score all season long.

I also bumped Bryan Abreu up a single point, into the secure group. With Josh Hader is out, there is no second option for the Astros, nor will they need one. Abreu is very solid, just about a half season from a legit stud.

Changes in Confidence Grade or Closer Status in bold

Shaky Closers

As a Mets fan, I have a lot of scar tissue, particularly from last year’s bullpen. So perhaps my initial 85 score for Ryan Helsley didn’t give him enough credit. He has looked strong and in command so far. The old version of Helsley (pre-Mets) would be a secure closer, so we’ll put him on the edge of that cohort.

Jeff Hoffman hasn’t looked great but being already in the shaky closer group, there’s no need to panic. I’ve upgraded Pete Fairbanks after two solid outings, and knocked Ryan Walker (whom I was higher on than most) down one grade.

Changes in Confidence Grade or Personnel in bold

Seesaw Situations

I didn’t see Ryne Stanek as the Cards closer situation coming. I also don’t see it sticking. Stanek is a serviceable bullpen arm and does have closing experience. But nothing comes easy for him. Riley O’Brien is the favorite to replace him for the next save chance. But confidence and trust take a while to earn.

I’ve downgraded Carlos Estévez into this group and I anticipate between the time I write the column and when you read it, that he will be removed as the team’s closer. Lucas Erceg earned a clean save on Sunday. Keep an eye on Erceg and others who might get high leverage situations in KC.

Griffin Jax has had a rough start to the season. While he is the team’s closer, I will keep this bullpen classified as a committee because it will be fluid this week.

Gregory Soto has looked sharp in his outings versus the Mets, so if your league tracks holds or SOLDS (saves + holds), grab him. I don’t trust Santana and I think Soto will get his job eventually, but we shall see.

Paul Sewald has emerged as the clear closer, so I’ve bumped him up to a 75 score since one level of uncertainty has been removed.

*Denotes Closer Committee

Changes in Confidence Grade or personnel in bold

People Have More Questions About Closer Confidential

What do bullpen confidence tiers mean in fantasy baseball?
They group closers by reliability, separating stable ninth-inning options from volatile or committee-based situations.

How often should fantasy managers reassess closers early in the season?
Bullpen roles shift quickly, so weekly evaluation is standard, with more frequent checks during the opening weeks.

What makes a closer “secure” versus “shaky”?
Secure closers combine results and strong underlying metrics, while shaky options show inconsistency or role risk.

Are closer committees worth targeting in fantasy baseball?
They carry risk for saves but can still provide value in leagues that count holds or SOLDS.