2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook After Baz Trade

Shane Baz’s Fantasy Outlook With the Orioles

For a long time, Glenn Colton and I have looked at the second season post Tommy John surgery as the year that a pitcher either is back ahead of his previous pitching or does not come back at all.  Since Shane Baz will be entering his second season after the surgery, there are no assurances that he is capable of coming back to form to be an ACE in this Orioles rotation.  

Greatness in baseball is a combination of talent and opportunity.  He will surely be the No. 1 or No. 2 starter in the rotation, but let’s take a look at the player and his metrics.

Baz will turn 27 in June during the 2026 season.  Last year was his first full season and his raw numbers were not good with 10-12 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  His velocity was 97 which is strong and projectable.  His BABIP was .303 which is the league average so he was not unlucky.  His FIP was 4.36 which is within the range for his ERA.  He had 11.8 SwK, 24.8 K%, 46.7 GB%.  These are good numbers but not at the level of his reputation.

This was a speculative move on talent alone.  

Role in the Orioles Rotation

With Baltimore, Baz steps into a rotation that badly needed a stabilizing mid-rotation arm. He is expected to slot in behind established starters like Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish, immediately giving him a clearer path to innings than he often had in Tampa Bay’s constantly rotating pitching plans.

This matters enormously for fantasy and especially for points league where Baz will go VERY late. Improvements in innings pitched can significantly boost a pitcher’s value in innings, wins, strikeouts and quality starts.  For 10-team leagues, he may not be important, but all other leagues need to pay attention.

The Ballpark Matters: Rule 8 in Rules of Engagement

Playing at Steinbrenner Field really hurt Baz.  It is hard to understand how Camden Yards will be better for him as it is a great ballpark for left- handed hitters.  However, it is a neutral ballpark for right-handed hitters.  There will be some improvement.

The Baltimore defense is also very good which will help a lot.  

Prospect Outlooks: Rays’ Return in Fantasy Terms

Slater de Brun (OF)

De Brun is the headliner of the package and immediately becomes one of the Rays’ more intriguing dynasty assets. He is a top-of-the-order hitter with speed and on-base skills. He models his game after Corbin Carroll and they look like each other at the plate. Do not look to him for 2026, but monitor for dynasty leagues. He was drafted number 37 in 2025 and only signed in July. He has little experience but is already a disciplined player at the plate.

Caden Bodine (C)

Bodine gives Tampa Bay rare catching depth. From a fantasy perspective, catching prospects are notoriously volatile, but Bodine’s defensive ability increases his chances of reaching the majors. He was drafted with the 30th pick in the 2025 draft so he is a long way from the majors. Played just 11 games in the Carolina League. 

Austin Overn (OF) & Michael Forret (RHP)

Deeper prospects than the other two in the deal, but keep an eye on them because fantasy value is opportunity plus talent.  Even though these are not blue chippers, they may get opportunities sooner with the Orioles than they would with the Dodgers.

Final Thoughts

The Rays trading Shane Baz to the Orioles is a classic example of how real-life baseball decisions ripple through fantasy strategy. Baltimore gets immediate pitching help, while Tampa Bay reloads for the future. Baz gets a slight jump because he is another year removed from TJ, throws hard and is in a slightly better ballpark.

Based on all the metrics, the talent and watching video of him, we like Baz to deliver something like this: 11 wins, 8 losses, 180 innings pitched, 195 strikeouts, 4.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP which is a very good season for Roto-style AND points play.

People Also Ask

What is Shane Baz’s 2026 fantasy value after the trade?
Baz is a mid-round SP target with upside due to innings and control through 2028.

Who did the Rays get for Shane Baz?
Four prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. (MLB.com)

How does this trade affect the Orioles rotation?
It upgrades a rotation that needed arms, boosting fantasy relevance.(BaltimoreBaseball.com)

Should fantasy drafters target Rays prospects?
In dynasty formats, incoming prospects gain value.