2026 (Mock) Hall of Fame Ballot

	Home Runs	Gold Gloves
Willie Mays	660	13
Mike Schmidt	548	11
Ken Griffey Jr.	630	10
Andruw Jones	434	11

Most players who fall off a cliff at age 30 fall well short of Hall of Fame standards, but Jones is aided by the fact that he debuted at age 19 and became a full-time player at age 20. Jones spent nearly a decade as one of the best players in baseball and had six different seasons inside the top-10 in the NL in bWAR. 

At its core, the Hall of Fame is and should be about rewarding greatness, and Jones’ combination of skills is among the best in the history of baseball. It may take another year, but Jones looks well on his way to earning his rightful place in Cooperstown.

3. Félix Hernández, SP

• Year on Ballot: 2nd
• Last Year: 20.6%
• Current Tracking: 57.1% (+45)

No player looks set to make a bigger leap in 2026 than King Félix. After debuting with a respectable 20.6% in 2025, Hernández has already netted 45 votes in the publicly available ballots, a remarkable jump that has dramatically changed his chances of election in the coming years.

​The support around Hernández is a reflection of how the standards around Hall of Fame starting pitchers have changed in the last decade. In a different era, Hernández’s measly 169 wins and meager strikeout and innings pitched totals would have likely resulted in him being one-and-done.

Thankfully, the baseball community as a whole has wised up with their evaluations of pitchers, particularly when it comes to wins. The stat was misleading even when hurlers were expected to work into the eighth and ninth innings, and has become downright obsolete in the current era of relief specialists.

Even though his season-by-season workload was reminiscent of an earlier time, Hernández’s win total is perhaps more deceiving than any modern pitcher.

Though he had six different seasons inside the top 10 in the American League in ERA, Hernández only finished inside the top 10 in wins three times due to the Mariners’ pitiful offense.

No season is more reflective of Hernández’s lack of support than his 2010 campaign.

Despite leading the American League with a 2.27 ERA and 7.2 bWAR, he finished with a 13-12 record due to the Mariners scoring an average of just 3.17 runs per game, the lowest team total since the designated hitter was adopted in 1973. ​

If Hernández was able to win an additional four games per season during his decade-long prime, a conservative estimate given just how dismal the Mariners’ offense was, his career win total would be right in line with recent first-ballot electees Pedro Martinez (219), John Smoltz (213), and Roy Halladay (203).

The short-but-brilliant career of Halladay in particular presents a fascinating comparison to Hernández. The former Blue Jays and Phillies great sailed into Cooperstown on the first ballot yet had eerily similar numbers to his fellow 2010 Cy Young Award winner:

	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
Felix Hernandez	418	2,729.1	3.42	1.20	2,524
Roy Halladay	390	2,749.1	3.38	1.18	2,117

Of course, Halladay benefited from his reputation as a big-game pitcher, something Hernández was never able to earn due to the Mariners’ futility, but it’s also worth pointing out the differing perceptions about each pitcher’s longevity.

Halladay only put together 13 seasons with at least 100 innings pitched, barely surpassing Hernández’s total of 12,  but isn’t punished as greatly due to his career ending at the relatively normal age of 36.

Hernández, on the other hand, had his late great season in 2014 at age 29, as the bill for the massive workload he accumulated in his twenties came quickly.

His last four MLB seasons saw him total -0.1 bWAR over his final four MLB seasons, and his professional major league pitch came at the age of 33.

Yet much like Jones, Hernández benefits from the fact that he debuted at the age of 20 and was one of the best pitchers in baseball by age 23.

In spite of his abrupt end, Hernández still put together seven seasons with at least 200 innings pitched and an ERA below 3.50, the same total as Halladay and three more than 2024 inductee C.C. Sabathia.

In spite of his favorable comparison to Halladay, Hernández’s total body of work falls behind Hall of Fame statistical thresholds. His career 49.8 bWAR ranks just 113th all-time, trailing the likes of David Wells (53.4), Kenny Rogers (50.5), and Roy Oswalt (50.0).

His seven-year peak rates out a bit better, but is still two points shy of the Hall of Fame starting pitcher average, even after adjusting for the massive workloads of 19th and early 20th century hurlers. ​

What Hernandez lacks in quantitative data, however, he makes up for with the qualitative. Despite sharing a prime with inner-circle Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, Hernández still had a strong argument as the most imposing and dominant pitcher in the game. ​

His Safeco Field starts became must-see events, with fans filling up “the King’s Court” with yellow “K” shirts and signs, and Hernández delivered far more often than not.

​As much as I love using WAR to evaluate a player’s career, it should not and can not be the end-all, be-all. Hernández’s decade-long stretch as the Mariners ace can go toe-to-toe with any other 21st-century pitcher and should be rewarded with an election to Cooperstown.

4. Chase Utley, 2B

• Year on Ballot: 3rd
• Last Year: 39.8%
• Current Tracking: 67.7% (+20)

The first three players on this list have had greatness that was easily recognizable. Carlos Beltrán was one of the best five-tool players of all time, equally likely to take your breath away in the field or on the bases as he was with his 40-home run power.

​Andruw Jones was universally considered the best defensive center fielder of his era, able to make the impossible plays look routine while possessing a thunderous middle-of-the-order bat to boot.

​King Félix turned regular starts for a lowly Mariners team into showstopping spectacles, taking on workloads reminiscent of an earlier era and dismantling hitters with his array of lively fastballs and wipeout secondaries.

​Compared to those three, it was much more difficult to see why Utley was among the best players of his era. He never ranked among the league leaders in home runs or batting average and only topped the 20-stolen base plateau once.

He was a dependable and steady defender at second base, but wasn’t flashy enough to ever earn a Gold Glove.

​If you were to watch Utley for a day, you may walk away unimpressed. If you were to watch Utley for an entire season, however, you would understand exactly why he was the centerpiece of one of the most dominant teams of the 21st century.

​The idea that Utley was the best player of the late 2000s Phillies may be controversial, given that Ryan Howard won the MVP in 2006 and Jimmy Rollins took home the award in 2007.

Yet while Utley finished seventh and eighth respectively in MVP voting those two seasons, we can now see that Utley was the most valuable player on each of those teams.

​2006

• Ryan Howard bWAR: 5.2
• Chase Utley bWAR: 7.3

2007

• Jimmy Rollins WAR: 6.1
• Chase Utley WAR: 7.8

These MVP results speak to the essence of Utley. He wasn’t hitting 50 home runs every year like Howard. He wasn’t stealing 40 bases or hitting 20 triples like Rollins.

Utley’s brilliance was his ability to show up every day and dominate every phase of the game. Although the only stat Utley consistently led the league in was hit by pitches, his combination of skills made him one of the best players in baseball during his prime.

Most bWAR among position players from 2005-10

1. Albert Pujols: 52.1
2. Chase Utley: 45.5
3. Alex Rodriguez: 38.3
4. Mark Teixieria: 33.4
5. Joe Mauer: 31.8

Among second basemen, Utley’s 49.3 seven-year peak WAR is tied with Robinson Cano for the eighth-highest total of all time, trailing seven Hall of Famers and narrowly edging out first ballot-electee Ryne Sandberg.

​Narrow the group to just 21st-century Hall of Famers, and Utley’s advantage becomes even more favorable.                          

	AVG/OBP/SLG	OPS+	H	HR	RBI	WAR	dWAR
Craig Biggio	.281/.363/.433	112	3060	291	1,157	65.5/41.8/53.7	3.7
Roberto Alomar	.300/.371/.443	116	2724	210	1134	67.0/42.9/55.0	4.6
Jeff Kent	.290/.356/.500	123	2461	377	1518	55.4/35.8/45.6	-0.1
Chase Utley	.275/.358/.465	125	1886	259	1025	64.6/49.3/56.9	17.4

​Other than the absence of accolades, the biggest knock on Utley is his lack of longevity. He didn’t play over 100 games in a season until age 26 and played over 140 games just once in his final nine seasons.

As a result, Utley played at least 300 fewer games than all three players, including nearly 1,000 fewer than Biggio.

​In another era, Utley’s meager counting stats would have been a major hurdle for his candidacy, but the recent shift toward players with injury-shortened careers could work in his favor.

Scott Rolen was easily elected despite playing over 140 games in just seven of his 17 MLB seasons, while Larry Walker snuck in on his tenth year of eligibility despite exceeding the 145-game threshold once in his own 17-year career.

​In a bizarre way, Utley’s lack of longevity could actually work in his favor. The fact that he accumulated more JAWS than his second base peers in far less playing time speaks to how dominant he was in his prime, even if he wasn’t fully appreciated by Gold Glove and MVP voters.

​Poised to climb over the 50% threshold in this cycle, Utley should have little problem picking up the remaining 25% or so in his final seven years of eligibility to earn election into Cooperstown.

5. Bobby Abreu, OF

• Year on Ballot: 7th
• Last Year: 19.5%
• Current Tracking: 38.7% (+14)

Abreu has become the modern-day analytical Hall of Fame darling. Underappreciated during his career, the sweet-swinging outfielder has generated support among new-age voters due to his defense, baserunning efficiency, and on-base skills. 

Due to playing on some truly mediocre Phillies teams, Abreu never got the attention he deserved during his peak, but he was astonishingly consistent. He racked up between 5.2 bWAR and 6.6 bWAR in every season from 1998 to 2004 while failing to reach the .300 batting average and .400 on-base percentage thresholds just one time total. 

Though he had his last great season in 2004 at the age of 30, Abreu put together six more years as a productive offensive contributor for some excellent Yankees and Angels teams. He posted an OPS+ between 113 and 126 in each season, stealing at least 20 bases each season and driving in 100 runs in all but one. 

The biggest knock on Abreu’s career is his lack of accolades. He never finished within the top ten in MVP and earned just two All-Star appearances. Some of that is due to the quality of teams he played with, but a lot of it is due to what was valued in the era he played in. 

Abreu’s peak ended just as the “Moneyball” craze kicked into full gear, and few players fit the Billy Beane ideal better. He drew at least 100 walks in each season between 1999 and 2006, which, along with an elite hit tool and consistent 20-30 home run power, helped him finish with an OPS above .900 six times during that span. 

Though his peak was decidedly less flashy, Abreu’s total offensive profile is awfully similar recent Hall of Fame inductee Todd Helton: 

	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	OPS+
Todd Helton	2519	592	369	1406	1335	133
Bobby Abreu	2470	574	288	1363	1476	128

Further working in Abreu’s favor is his impact on the bases. While he never ranked among the league leaders in steals, his saavyness helped him swipe 400 bases against just 128 caught stealings. 

He is the only player in MLB history with at least nine seasons of 60 extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases, and is one of just seven to accumulate 900 extra-base hits and 400 stolen bases in a career. 

As opposed to his offensive production, Abreu’s defense fell off drastically in his thirties, as he probably should have shifted to designated hitter a few years earlier than he actually did.

In his prime, however, Abreu was a well-above-average defensive outfielder, totaling 72 defensive runs saved in his first six seasons in Philadelphia and leading the National League in defensive WAR in 1998. 

Though Abreu may be short of the Hall of Fame threshold at a stacked right field position, his 60.2 bWAR is sandwiched between Dave Winfield and Vladimir Guerrero, while his 41.6 seven-year peak WAR is just ahead of Tony Gwynn. The total package is a 50.9 JAWS that is ahead of 15 of the 30 Hall of Fame right-fielders. 

Not all Hall of Famers are built the same. What Abreu lacks in accolades and Baseball Reference black ink is made up for with durability, consistency, and a head-spinning collection of skills.

Whether he is able to double his 2025 support in the next four years is a different story, but he should have a plaque in Cooperstown. 

6. Andy Pettitte, SP

• Year on Ballot: 8th
• Last Year: 27.9%
• Current Tracking: 56.7% (+31)

Through all my years of mock ballots, I have never once considered Andy Pettitte. While I admired his consistency and dependability, Pettitte’s mediocre 3.85 career ERA, along with the fact that he was rarely the best pitcher on his own team, left him just short in my eyes.

​For a while, it looked like Pettitte’s flaws would leave him well short of Cooperstown. After debuting with 9.9% of the vote in 2019, the left-hander failed to make inroads with voters through his first five years on the ballot, climbing to just 13.5% by 2025.

​Pettitte looked destined to fall off the ballot after his tenth year, but 2025 finally saw him make the jump to relevancy. His 27.9% vote share nearly doubled his career, and he looks poised to make another substantial jump this year, having already netted 14 votes.

​So what happened? How did a pitcher toiling in the mid-teens suddenly pick up momentum in his sixth year on the ballot? Much like many of these voters, I was influenced by the presence of C.C. Sabathia, Pettitte’s former teammate, who sailed in during his first year of eligibility with 86.6% of the vote.

​While Sabathia may have more signature moments than Pettitte and was able to reach the vaunted 3,000 strikeout threshold, the closeness of the two numbers was quite eye-opening: 

	WAR	W-L	IP	K	ERA	ERA+
Andy Pettitte	60.2/34.2/47.2	256-153	3316	2448	3.85	117
C.C Sabathia	62.4/39.4/50.8	251-161	3577.1	3093	3.74	116

That last number in particular is key, as it helps put context around each pitcher’s relatively high ERA. The ability to account for run-scoring environments is a necessary tool when comparing players for each era, and few pitchers benefit more from said adjustment than Sabathia and Pettitte.

​Having spent the majority of his prime in the American League East pitching against some truly elite offenses in Boston and Tampa Bay, voters were willing to overlook Sabathia’s 3.74 career ERA, which is currently the third-highest of any Hall of Fame starting pitcher.

​Pettitte, meanwhile, gets an even more favorable adjustment, as he pitched a greater percentage of his career in the steroid era and in the AL East.  His 117 ERA+ is tied with Gaylord Perry and ahead of the likes of Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, and Phil Niekro, each of whom posted a 115 ERA+.

​While Pettitte failed to reach many of the benchmarks historically associated with Hall-of-Fame hurlers, namely 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, he makes up the difference with a sterling postseason resume. His 19 playoff wins are the most in MLB history, and he was an integral part of eight pennant winners and five World Series champions.

​You would think that Pettitte’s big-game reputation would appeal to old-school voters, but that’s where the steroid issue comes into play. Pettitte admitted to using human growth hormones (HGH) in 2002 and 2004 to recover from injuries and was named in the 2007 Mitchell Report investigation.

​As we’ll discuss later with Alex Rodriguez’s and Manny Ramirez’s cases, everyone has their own interpretation of how to deal with steroid users’ Hall of Fame cases.

While I personally believe that players like Ramirez, Rodriguez, and Ryan Braun, who were suspended by MLB, should be left on the outside looking in, Pettitte never received punishment from the league, as HGH was not officially banned until 2005.

​Additionally, Pettitte only used PEDs to recover from injuries rather than, say, chase down an all-time home run record, an important distinction in my mind. He also expressed remorse for his actions, something that many of his fellow steroid users have failed to do.

​Of the six players I selected on this mock ballot, Pettitte admittedly is the one I have the least conviction about. Aside from the PED questions, I would have preferred Pettitte to have more seasons atop the statistical leaderboard, as he only had three top-10 ERA finishes and four top-10 strikeout seasons.

​The line between Pettitte and Hall-of-Very-Good pitchers Cole Hamels and Mark Buehrle is fairly close, but I believe that his remarkable consistency, postseason excellence, and ability to thrive in baseball’s toughest division during its most offensive-friendly era push him to Hall-of-Fame status.

Close But No Cigar

Dustin Pedroia, 2B

• Year on Ballot: 2nd
• Last Year: 11.9%
• Current Tracking: 26.3% (+20)

Dustin Pedroia presents one of the most unfortunate Hall of Fame cases in recent memory. The diminutive second baseman looked well on his way to Cooperstown after his first decade in the bigs, having already compiled four All-Star appearances, three Gold Gloves, 1,683 hits, and two World Series championships by his age-32 season.

​All Pedroia needed was two or three more All-Star caliber seasons to get his counting stats above the Hall of Fame threshold. Unfortunately, a Manny Machado slide in May of 2017 hit Pedroia squarely in the knee and forever changed the trajectory of Pedroia’s career.

Offseason surgery proved unsuccessful, and he would play a combined 9 games in 2018 and 2019 before calling it quits at age 36.

​Though not entirely his fault, Pedroia’s early retirement, along with some unfortunately timed injuries during his peak, leaves his counting numbers well short of the Hall of Fame threshold. His 51.8 bWAR is nearly 18 points shy of the Hall of Fame average at the position, and his 1,805 hits would be the lowest of any expansion-era position player.

​If Pedroia’s peak was up to Hall of Fame standards, it would be easier to overlook his lack of longevity. Yet Pedroia’s seven-year peak bWAR of 40.9 was just shy of the Hall of Fame average at the position, while his 46.4 JAWS ranks just 20th all-time at the position, one spot ahead of one-and-done Ian Kinsler.

​Though Pedroia is closer to Hall of Fame induction than David Wright due to contributions to two World Series championship teams, it’s much more difficult to excuse a modern-day position player’s lack of longevity than a modern-day starting pitcher like Félix Hernández.

As it stands right now, Pedroia is right alongside the likes of fellow MVP winners Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy as players whose brilliant peaks aren’t enough to overcome sub-standard counting stats.

​David Wright, 3B

• Year on Ballot: 3rd
• Last Year: 17.5%
• Current Tracking: 20.3% (+15)

Like Pedroia, David Wright’s lengthy injury history kept his counting numbers from reaching Hall of Fame standards, and his performance during his peak wasn’t great enough to make up the difference.

​When healthy, Wright put together some spectacular campaigns, headlined by a four-year span from 2005-2008 in which he batted .311/.395/.534 and averaged 6.0 bWAR a season.

The last three years of that stretch included three top-10 MVP finishes, and he would earn another one during a 7.1 WAR, 144 OPS+ monster in 2012,

​The big issue for Wright is what came in between those two seasons. Wright’s production fell off upon the Mets’ move to Citi Field, and he averaged just 2.7 bWAR from 2009-2011. As a result, Wright’s seven-year peak bWAR of 39.5 would be the lowest of any post-WWII third baseman, trailing the likes of Josh Donaldson and Evan Longoria.

​Because Wright only played 77 games after his age-31 season, his total body of work doesn’t stack up to his contemporaries at his position.

His 49.1 WAR is nearly 20 points shy of the Hall of Fame third base average, and his 44.3 JAWS is sandwiched between Donaldson and one-and-done Ron Cey.

​Even though I currently have Wright and Pedroia just shy of Cooperstown, the presence of Buster Posey, a fellow franchise icon who had shorter careers than both players, on next year’s ballot could be exactly what they need to rally support.

If Posey gets elected on the strength of his MVP and three World Series Championships, it could help change the narrative around peak-over-longevity position players.

Mark Buehrle, SP

• Year on Ballot: 6th
• Last Year: 11.4%
• Current Tracking: 23.5% (+12)

It might seem strange to put Pettitte on my ballot and not Buehrle, considering they are both durable left-handers from the 2000s who finished with ERAs in the high threes.

Their overall body of work is nearly identical, as they sit 91st and 92nd, respectively, on the all-time JAWS leaderboard.

​Yet while Pettitte had a number of standout seasons, including four top-five Cy Young finishes, Buehrle only received Cy Young votes once during his 16-year career.

And though he had a few signature moments, most notably a complete-game masterpiece in the 2005 ALCS and a perfect game in 2009, his postseason resume pales in comparison to Pettitte.

​There is certainly a case to be made for Buehrle, especially considering fellow rubber-armed left-hander Jim Kaat was elected via the veteran’s committee. I just have a hard time overlooking a pitcher who was never considered among the best of his era and ranks just 151st in seven-year peak WAR, slotting in between Javier Vázquez and Bartolo Colón.

​Perhaps I will reconsider as more 21st-century starting pitchers get elected, but Buehrle falls just short for me right now.

Cole Hamels, SP

• Year on Ballot: 1st
• Current Tracking: 31.8%

The only first-year player this year who looks likely to remain on the ballot, Cole Hamels, has a stronger case than I initially believed. The crafty left-hander spent a decade as the anchor of a terrific Phillies rotation, averaging 209 innings, 197 strikeouts, and a 3.26 ERA from 2007 to 2015.

​The peak of Hamels’ career came during the Phillies’ championship run in 2008. The 24-year-old set the tone by tossing eight shutout innings in Game One of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers before joining Orel Hershiser and Liván Hernández as the only pitchers to win NLCS and World Series honors in the same season.

​In five starts that postseason, Hamels posted a 1.80 ERA and struck out 30 batters in 35 innings. The Phillies won all five of those starts, including the Game 5 clinchers in the NLCS and World Series.

​Though Hamels was unable to repeat the magic of that championship run, he finished his career with a 3.41 ERA in 100.1 October innings, besting notable postseason legends like Randy Johnson (3.50), Justin Verlander (3.58), Roger Clemens (3.75), and Pettitte (3.81).

​While Hamels’ regular-season resume isn’t nearly as historic, he certainly presents a fascinating argument for eventual election. His career 123 ERA+ is tied with Juan Marichal and Mike Mussina for 97th all-time, higher than recent Hall-of-Fame electees Tom Glavine (118) and C.C. Sabathia (116).

​Despite throwing his last professional pitch at age 36, Hamels was still able to reach the 2,500 strikeout threshold, an important demarcation for Hall of Fame starting pitchers.

Of the 29 retired pitchers ahead of Hamels on the all-time strikeout list, 22 are already in Cooperstown, one more (Zack Greinke) is certain to be elected in the coming years, and two more (Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens) would be in if not for off-field controversies.

​In terms of WAR, Hamels is short of all three thresholds, but he would hardly be out of place in Cooperstown.

His 59.8 career bWAR is in the ballpark of Marichal (62.8) and Sabathia (62.3), while his 48.2 S-JAWS (which adjusts for the massive starting pitching workloads of the 19th and early 20th century) is ahead of the likes of Whitey Ford (45.5), Sandy Koufax (44.2), Jim Kaat (42.4), and Jack Morris (37.4)

​My biggest issue with Hamels has to do with his peak. In an era with all-time greats like Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Max Scherzer, Hamels was clearly a notch below the cream of the crop:

• Top Five bWAR Seasons: 3 (4th in 2011, 3rd in 2014, 5th in 2026)
• ​Top Five Strikeout Seasons: 1 (3rd in 2012)
• ​Top Five ERA seasons: 1 (5th in 2014)
• ​Top Five Cy Young Finishes: 0

​Being among the best at your position is a key trait of a Hall of Famer. Sabathia won the AL Cy Young Award in 2007 and likely would have won it again in 2008 had he spent the whole season in Milwaukee.

Hernandez had three top-two ERA seasons between 2009 and 2014 and finished top-five in Cy Young voting four times during that span. Even Pettitte, who is considered somewhat of a compiler, had five top-five Cy Young finishes during his career.

​Though some see it differently, I believe that the honor of being a first-ballot Hall of Famer should be reserved for only inner-circle Hall of Famers, and Hamels clearly falls short of that threshold.

I will be happy to take another look next year, especially if Pettitte is able to navigate his way to the cusp of election.

Francisco Rodriguez, RP

• Year on Ballot: 4th
• Last Year: 10.2%
• This Year: 11.1% (+8)

​The election of Billy Wagner in his last year of eligibility had several key implications for future election cycles. Not only did it avoid travesty with someone who was arguably the most effective pitcher in baseball history on a per-inning basis, but it helped boost the candidacy of other one-inning closers who may not be exactly in the Mariano Rivera class.

​While we still have to wait another decade to discuss the likes of Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, and other standout closers of the 2010s, one fascinating case on this year’s ballot is Francisco Rodríguez. The undersized right-hander rode his dynamic changeup to 437 career saves, including a record 62 in 2008.

​Of the five players ahead of Rodríguez on the all-time saves list, three are already in the Hall of Fame, while Jansen and Kimbrel seem like locks once they decide to hang up their cleats. The issue for Rodríguez is that his rate stats pale in comparison to many of his modern contemporaries.

	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K/9
Mariano Rivera	2.21	205	1.00	8.2
Trevor Hoffman	2.87	141	1.06	9.4
Kenley Jansen	2.57	155	0.96	12.7
Craig Kimbrel	2.58	159	1.02	14.0
Billy Wagner	2.31	187	1.00	11.9
Francisco Rodriguez	2.86	148	1.15	10.6

​Rodriguez wasn’t as robotically efficient as Rivera and wasn’t nearly as dominant as Kimbrel, Jansen, and Wagner. There is a fascinating argument to be made with Hoffman, but the Padres great blows Rodriguez out of the water in terms of 30-save seasons (14 to 8) while having a substantial edge in WHIP and total WAR (28.1 to 24.2)

​The best comparison for Rodriguez is not a Hall of Famer but rather Joe Nathan, who fell off the ballot after receiving just 4.3% of the vote in 2022. Like Rodriguez, Nathan also played for five teams over his 16-year career and has nearly identical rate and counting stats.

	ERA	WHIP	Saves	WAR	All-Star Appearances
Joe Nathan	2.87	1.12	377	26.4	6
Francisco Rodríguez	2.86	1.15	437	24.2	6

There is certainly an argument that Nathan should have received more Cooperstown love, but I think both he and Rodriguez fall into the “very good closer” category rather than “Hall of Famer.” Other than a season or two, neither ever reached the heights that Wagner or Rivera lived in, and neither matched the consistency of Hoffman.  

​As more modern closers get in, I may be forced to re-evaluate my position on Rodriguez, but as of right now, he is just a bit short.
Other Notable Players

Alex Rodriguez/Manny Ramirez

​There is no right way to handle steroid users’ Hall of Fame candidacies. I see validity in the argument that any steroid user with Hall of Fame numbers should be let in, and I see validity in the argument that anyone connected with steroids should be banned from Cooperstown.

​Everyone has a different way of interpreting an unanswerable question, but my general rule is that anyone who was suspended for steroids should be ineligible. It is one thing to use steroids during the Wild Wild West days of the late 1990s and early 2000s, but it is another thing entirely to be suspended for steroid use when there was explicit testing and rules in place.

​As long as Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, two players who were never suspended for PED use and were Hall of Famers before they started doping, are on the outside looking in, I can’t support the candidacies of Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez.

Jimmy Rollins, SS

​While the presence of his longtime double-play partner, Chase Utley, alongside him on the ballot may help boost Jimmy Rollins’ candidacy, it’s clear that he is not the same caliber of player.

​His 2007 MVP campaign overshadowed what was a largely mediocre offensive career, as Rollins only posted an OPS+ above 100 in four of his 17 MLB seasons. Rollins may have been able to rack up gaudy hit numbers in his prime, but that was more a result of his remarkable durability and hitting atop a stacked Phillies order than his offensive prowess.

​Rollins’ biggest offensive contribution was on the bases, where his 81.7% stolen base percentage was the 11th-highest mark of all players with at least 300 attempts. Yet because he only managed a lowly .324 on-base percentage, Rollins only led the league in stolen bases once and has just three other seasons inside the NL’s top five.

​On defense, Rollins was a steady defender who took home four Gold Glove awards, but he wasn’t impactful enough to overcome his mediocre offensive performance. His 16.3 dWAR ranks just 54th all-time among shortstops, well behind the likes of glove-first Hall of Famers like Ozzie Smith (44.2), Luis Aparicio (31.8), and Alan Trammell (22.7)

​The total package average offensive production, good-not-great defense, and efficient baserunning just isn’t good enough to warrant serious Cooperstown consideration.

His 47.9 bWAR is nearly 20 points lower than the Hall-of-Fame average at the position, while his 40.3 JAWS trails the likes of Nomar Garciaparra (43.7), Troy Tulowitzki (42.5) and Miguel Tejada (41.9)

​He may stay on the ballot for a few more years due to his accolades, consistency, and contributions to the 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies. But Rollins is unlikely to ever make a serious push for the 75% threshold.

Omar Vizquel, SS

​Many people have drawn parallels between Omar Vizquel’s candidacy and the candidacy of Ozzie Smith, who was easily elected in his first year of eligibility. It’s an understandable comparison given that both were among the best defensive shortstops of all time, but the two were far from equals in the field.

​While Vizquel has a strong case as the greatest defensive shortstop of the 1990s, his 129 defensive runs saved pales in comparison to Smith’s mark of 237. In terms of defensive WAR, Vizquel trails Smith by a 44.2 to 29.5 difference despite playing over 1,200 more innings at the position.

​The fact that Vizquel only accumulated 45.6 WAR in his 24-year career despite his defensive prowess speaks to just how little he contributed offensively. He only accumulated an OPS+ above 100 twice in his career, and his career mark of 82 would be tied with Rabbit Maranville and Luis Aparicio as the worst of any Hall of Fame shortstop.

​Vizquel also didn’t produce much value on the bases. His 404 stolen bases were largely offset by 167 caught stealings, resulting in a 70.8% stolen base percentage that was the second-lowest mark all-time among players with at least 500 stolen base attempts.

​Vizquel does deserve credit for his longevity, as his 24 seasons were only topped by Rickey Henderson among modern-day position players. Yet even with nearly two-and-a-half decades to accumulate stats, Vizquel’s 45.6 WAR is still considerably shy of the Hall-of-Fame shortstops’ average of 67.7. Meanwhile, his seven-year peak mark of 26.8 ranks just 70th all-time among shortstops, right behind the likes of Elvis Andrus and Javier Baez.

​All of this points to a player that falls well short of Cooperstown, and that’s without even considering the numerous scandals Vizquel has been embroiled in after his playing career. This is an easy no for me.

Torii Hunter, OF

​Torii Hunter is a first-ballot “Hall of Very Good” player. He was an integral part of some very good Twins, Tigers and Angels teams, racking up 353 home runs and earning five Gold Gloves. He recorded at least 3.0 WAR in every season from 2001 and 2012 and posted an OPS+ above 100 in all but one season during that year.

​At the same time, Hunter had just one top-15 MVP finish throughout his career. He hit over 30 home runs just once and topped the 100-RBI plateau just twice, and was a largely inefficient baserunner.

​As I pointed out with Hamels and Buehrle, it’s hard to become a Hall of Famer when you were never among the best players at your position at any time in your career. Given that Hunter only finished within the top ten in the AL in WAR one time, he simply doesn’t meet the criteria necessary for Cooperstown induction.

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