3 Breakout Candidates For Mets In 2022

While the Mets still have moves left to make after the lockout, they already have a few players on their roster that we could potentially see breakout in 2022.

These individuals have shown promise in small spurts throughout their careers. And if they can stay healthy and put it all together across a full season, they could wind up surprising the rest of the league. 

So, without further ado, here are three candidates that could have a breakout season for the Mets this year.

Taijuan Walker

It was certainly a tale of two halves for Taijuan Walker in his first season as a Met last year. The right-handed starter posted a 7-3 record, 2.66 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his first 16 starts, which earned him the first All-Star nod of his career. However, he hit a wall in the second half of the season with an 0-8 record, 7.13 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 20 homers allowed in his final 64.1 innings of work.

Although both Walker and the Mets refused to admit it, the hurler was clearly fatigued after not throwing more than 53 innings across a season since 2017 due to Tommy John surgery and the 2020 Covid-shortened campaign. In 2021, Walker threw 159 innings in 29 starts after tossing a total of just 67.1 innings since the start of 2018.

On a positive note, as dreadful of a second half as he endured, Walker tossed two gems against the Dodgers (6.2 innings, one earned run, eight strikeouts) and Giants (six innings, two earned runs) back in August. He also finished his 2021 campaign on a high-note by shutting down the lowly Marlins across 7.1 innings, while allowing just two runs on two hits in his final outing of the year. 

So, with Walker's arm now built up enough to handle a full season workload for a starting pitcher, he should be able to take things to the next level in 2022. Walker showed flashes of brilliance on the mound at times last season, and earlier in his career as well. And if he can avoid hitting another wall this season, the Mets should be getting a version of Walker that is closer to what they saw in the first half of 2021. 

The Mets signed star pitcher Max Scherzer to a record-setting three-year, $130 million contract in November and are looking to add another top of the rotation starter before the season begins. This means Walker is likely to be the Mets' No. 5 starter, which takes some pressure off of him after being relied on as the No. 2 (After Jacob deGrom's injury) and No. 3 a season ago.

Regardless, Walker has impressive stuff and his first half performance from 2021, along with the promise he has shown in small doses earlier in his career, all point towards the 29-year-old finally reaching his potential across a full season. 

Drew Smith

Last season, hard-throwing righty reliever Drew Smith made a career-high 31 appearances, and tossed 41.1 innings. This proved to be Smith's first full campaign as a big-leaguer, which saw him become a solid contributor out of the Mets' bullpen, posting a 2.40 ERA, 168 ERA+, 1.065 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. 

Unfortunately, Smith hit the I.L. with right shoulder inflammation in August, which kept him out for the rest of the season. But even still, the 28-year-old showed what he can do in 2021, which indicates that a breakout campaign could be on the horizon. If Smith can take the next step this season, he can potentially emerge as a reliable late-inning arm in the Mets' 'pen. 

The right-hander deploys a 95 mph fastball and his 87.9 mph cutter is his best put away pitch (25%), per Baseball Savant. Smith's 85 mph changeup (60% whiff rate) and 77.4 mph curveball (41.2% whiff rate) were his best swing-and-miss pitches, and if he starts throwing them more often, it could lead to an even better performance in 2022. Among MLB's percentile leaders from a season ago, Smith's fastball spin rate ranked in the 95th percentile and his curveball spin rate was in the 83rd percentile. 

While the Mets are destined to add multiple relievers after the lockout ends, Smith has earned a spot in their bullpen. And if his development continues to trend in the right direction, he is primed for a breakout season in 2022.

Mark Canha 

Last but not least, we have Mark Canha, who was part of the Mets' pre-lockout free agency class that saw them splurge $254.5 million on four players.

Prior to signing a two-year, $26.5 million deal with the Mets in November, Canha spent his entire seven-year big-league career with the Oakland Athletics. Now, he will get his first chance at performing in a big market under the bright lights in New York city. 

Canha, 32, has proven to have some pop in his bat since making his major league debut in 2015 (89 career home runs). But, in his first full season since the pandemic began, he was unable replicate his monstrous 2019 campaign, where he slugged 26 homers, drove in 58 RBIs and slashed .273/.396/.517/.913 with a 212 OPS+. 

Regardless, Canha still hit 17 homers, drove in 61 RBIs and slashed .231/.358/.387/.746 with a 111 OPS+ in 2021. He is also known for getting on-base (.366 OBP since start of 2018, 26th best in baseball) and has eclipsed a walk percentage of 12.3% or higher in his last three seasons. 

While Canha is currently viewed as a super utility man/fringe everyday player, he could show why he deserves to be a regular in the lineup by making an impact at multiple positions for the Mets, who dealt with a slew of injuries in 2021. Canha is highly versatile and has the ability to play all three outfield spots and first base, so the Mets can move him around the diamond, while utilizing him as a Swiss Army Knife.

Canha holds a ton of value given his versatility, power bat and ability to get on-base. That's why he is our third choice to have a breakout season for the Mets this year. 

The Mets also have one of the largest analytics departments in baseball, which should give Canha the necessary resources to help him potentially reach his ceiling in 2022 as being a 20-25 homer player that gets on-base at a high clip.