4 Reasons Diamondbacks vs Angels is a Trap Series

The Angels were on a four game winning streak up until losing their series finale against the first place Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday. They've won five of their last seven games. That includes a 13-5 shellacking of the Dodgers, and series victories against the Astros and the Rays.

Overall, since May 22, the Angels are 12-9 and have outscored their opponents by a whopping 122-91. The only reason their record isn't better is because their very poor bullpen blew three saves during that stretch. They easily could have been 15-6.

The D-backs, meanwhile, have been struggling. They are 5-11 in their last 16 games and have been outscored 79-45. The offense has been in a woeful slump, batting just .199 and averaging 2.8 runs per game during the skid.

The hope is they might be breaking out of that slump after a five-run, three-homer game against the Reds on Sunday. But they were still just 3-for-24 with runners in scoring position, which has been a team-wide issue since late May.

2: Expected Won-Loss and Base Runs

A team's won-loss record is not always the best indicator of how good they are. Of course at the end of the day the only thing that truly matters is winning games. But determining if a pace is sustainable (good or bad) needs to be looked at under the lens of deeper analysis.

Using Pythagorean Won-Loss, or expected won-loss, based on runs scored and runs allowed show the D-backs with an x-wl of 33-38 due to a -20 run differential. The Angels have a 32-40 x-wl, with a -31 run differential.

Looking at Base Runs standings, the Angels draw even closer, to 33-38. Base runs calculates the number of runs a team would be expected to score and allow based on underlying batting events and taking sequencing (luck) out of the equation.

A team like the Marlins, that has a 39-33 Base Runs record, can often surprise an opponent, like they did against the D-backs last week.

Again, the Angels bullpen is bad. Their 4.81 reliever ERA ranks 26th in MLB. They have an 8-12 record in one run-games, compared to the Diamondbacks 12-12 record in one-run contests. Therein lies the bulk of the difference between the two teams.

3: Starting Pitching Matchups

The starting pitching matchups favor the Angels. Their pitchers not only have the lower ERA across the board in each game, but even their peripheral and expected metrics such as xERA and FIP are superior as well.

Ryne Nelson, in particular, is coming off a disaster outing, having allowed seven runs in four innings against the Marlins. He has been up and down all year, but with 5.19 ERA the down has been more prevalent. It is critical that the D-backs don't go down in the series right out of the gate.

The one saving grace for Arizona in these matchups is they'll face left-hand starters on Tuesday and Wednesday. They're 12-5 when the other team starts a lefty, and 24-30 when they face a right-hand starter.

4: Travel Hangover

The Diamondbacks are coming back from an East Coast road trip without a day off to reset their body clocks. The Angels have been in California the past week.

They also got in a little later than planned Sunday night due to a one hour and 12 minute rain delay in Cincinnati on Sunday.

Diamondbacks vs Angels Summary

The Diamondbacks are the home team, and should be able to win this series. The Angels' rough bullpen is the equalizer for Arizona.

Don't be surprised if the Diamondbacks have to play some comeback baseball to win the series. If their offense continues to slump, especially situationally, even the bad Angels bullpen might not rescue them.