Advanced Analytics Shows Holes in Baltimore Orioles Projected Starting Rotation

As the Baltimore Orioles enter spring training camp, the question is if their starting rotation can survive the gauntlet of the AL East.

The Orioles lost their ace Corbin Burnes in free agency to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Without being able to fill the No. 1 slot in the rotation, everyone will have to step up in 2025.

Eno Sarris posts advanced analytics for starting pitchers in an article for The Athletic.

Baltimore's rotation is not made of analytical darlings, which leads back to the original question – is the pitching good enough to get back to the postseason?

The categories of the analytics are Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+.

While pitchers are all taught balance throughout a repeatable delivery, metrics such as Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ consider a pitcher's uniqueness.

Certain pitchers have a different arm slot or release points, while others have great extension – releasing the pitch closer to the plate. Additionally, a few pitchers utilize a cross-body release point or successfully hide the ball from hitters.

The introduction of analytics to pitching has revolutionized the craft, incorporating factors like spin rate, maximum effort, measured movement and precise location.

Below is taking a look at these advanced metrics for each pitcher in the Orioles' rotation, something that highlights how they could have some troubles anchoring this team to another AL East title and during the playoffs.

Zach Eflin

Rank: 68, Stuff+100, Location+ 108, Pitching + 104, Proj.IP 174, ppERA 3.92, ppK% 20.2%

Eflin is slated into the No. 1 spot in the rotation coming off a year where, after being traded from the Tampa Bay Rays, he closed well with Blatiomre, posting a 2.60 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 55.2 innings pitched.

Eflin is heading into his age-30 season. He is not going to blow anyone away with analytics-grabbing stuff. He is a pitcher with various tricks but is still willing to make changes to evolve. Using more of a four-seam high fastball to change the hitter's eye level has kept his variety of breaking pitches off the barrel of opposing team's bats.

He is durable and will eat innings, but ideally, he wouldn't be the ace of the rotation.

Grayson Rodriguez

Rank: 18, Stuff+107, Location+ 107, Pitching+ 113, Proj.IP 161, ppERA 3.43, ppK% 31.1%

Rodriguez could take the top-of-the-rotation mantle from the departed one-year rental Burnes.

In 2024, Rodriguez posted encouraging numbers in 20 starts; 130 strikeouts and a 3.64 ERA in 116.2 innings pitched.

He shows brilliance, featuring a good command of his four-seam fastball, which sits at 97 mph and has good run. In addition, he has a plus change up that he throws to both right and left-handed hitters.

The reason why he is not ranked in the top 10 is that his slider lacks explosiveness. It has more of a frisbee movement, which he throws predominantly to righties. His curveball possesses a more vertical drop, which he features against lefties.

Charlie Morton

Rank: 129, Stuff+100, Location+ 97, Pitching+ 95, Proj.IP 150, ppERA 4.37, ppK% 23.1%

Morton thought he might have thrown his final pitch last September, but Baltimore came calling in January to give the 41-year-old right-hander his 18th season.

He is a two-pitch starter. He is a few years away from striking out 200-plus hitters, but he still runs his four-seam fastball at 94-95 mph while using a plus curveball that possesses a sharp vertical break.

Occasionally, he floats a change-up to lefties, but the curve is his calling card.

He will be a good addition to the middle of the rotation if he stays healthy.

Dean Kremer

Rank: 108, Stuff+ 98, Location+ 99, Pitching+ 97, Proj.IP 154, ppERA 4.27, ppK% 20.8%

Kremer will likely be placed in the four spot in the rotation. He is another guy who does not wow with exploding breaking pitches, but he does possess the ultimate equalizer with his splitter.

The plus splitter keeps hitters off of his 93 mph fastball.  He throws it to right and left-handed hitters but relies heavily on it to get lefties out.  He also mixes two-seamers and cutters to righties and occasionally spins up a curveball to lefties.

He is durable, and if he is not asked to do too much, he will be solid at the backend of the rotation.

Tomoyuki Sugano

Rank: **, Stuff+ **, Location+ ***, Pitching+ ***, Proj.IP ***, ppERA ****, ppK% ***%

Sugano was signed in December to a one-year, $13 million contract out of Japan.

The 35-year-old garnered his third MVP in Nippon Professional Baseball last season, going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA and 111 strikeouts in 156.2 innings.

It's not out of the possibility that Sugano could positively influence Kremer since they both rely on the splitter to get outs.

For $13 million, it's a wonder why more teams weren't interested.

Cade Povich

Rank: 145, Stuff+97, Location+ 98, Pitching+ 95, Proj.IP 99, ppERA 4.18, ppK% 21.3%

Baltimore is looking at a starting rotation without a left-hander. Povich is unlikely to break camp in the rotation, but he could be the swing guy between the rotation and bullpen.

He's entering his second big league season after he gave up 80 hits in 79.2 and an ERA of 5.20. 

Povich has a four-pitch with a four-seam fastball around 93 mph. The fastball is a touch straight, but he does have a plus curveball with a sharp vertical break. He also mixes in a good change-up that could be better off if he could cut a few mph’s to create more difference from his four-seam.

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