Afternoon Delight: Saturday Base Hit Parlay

Start Times: Both At 405pm EST, 5/31/25

LEG 1: White Sox At Baltimore — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 Base Hit

Dean Kremer's had his issues this season, but I don't want to keep repeating myself — you can check today's earlier piece for more details if you missed it. The bottom line is Baltimore's righty hurler's pitched to contact all season (90.5% Zone-Contact) without generating swings-and-misses (8.5% Swinging Strike) or reaches outside the zone (31.0% O-Swing). 

Consistently living in the zone means lots of balls in play. Without a true put-away pitch (98 Stuff+), the result's an elevated .278 batting average allowed — which balloons to .314 (.890 OPS, .382 wOBA) when isolated to left-handed hitters. A perfect scenario to look for a hot-hitting southpaw to produce a base knock.

"Krispy" Kremer will be facing off against the Pale Hose and post-hype legend Andrew Benintendi — who's seeing the ball well versus RHP since returning from the IL on May 23rd: 76.0% Contact, .278 BA, 28.6% Barrel, .389 xwOBA. Benny's entrenched in a top spot in the lineup and playing on the road, ensuring a ninth frame. Giddy up...

LEG 2: Red Sox At Braves — Matt Olson Over 0.5 Base Hit

For all intents and purposes, Walker Buehler's been more than serviceable for the Bo-Sox (3.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) though I'd argue his luck stats (78.5% Left On Base, .268 BABIP) make a case for some negative regression on the horizon. That said, we've seen a distinct drop-off in Stuff+ (98) and swing-and-miss ability (8.5% Swinging Strike), very much making Buehler a pitch-to-contact starter (89.6% Zone- Contact). One, might I add that's without a put-away pitch to southpaws, who are hitting .294 off him this season.

Enter Braves' slugger Matt Olson, off a rough start to the season. Well, he's done a complete 180 as of late, looking like he might be regaining peak powers. Over his last 50 PA versus RHP, Olson's been a monster at the dish — .283 BA, .892 OPS, 57.1% Hard Hit, 20.0% Barrel, .378 xwOBA, 3 HR. 

As usual, there's a built-in backdoor for my plays as well. Just in case we don't get our hit early, Boston's pen has been worked hard lately — Aroldis Chapman's pitched three of the last four days and could be unavailable as well as Garrett Whitlock who threw 33 pitches last night.