American League Central betting preview

The Chicago White Sox won the American League Central by a whopping 13 games last season. Unfortunately, that was followed by a quick exit in the playoffs. Nevertheless, they are mostly running it back with the same squad. It makes sense, because with some better health they can easily repeat and try their chances in the playoffs once again. 

After Chicago, the division feels very wide open and the odds support that opinion. Detroit, Minnesota, and even Kansas City made some upgrades to give themselves a shot at the expanded playoffs and Cleveland probably has the best pitching in the division so the Guardians can't be totally dismissed either.

Chicago looks like a sure thing but beyond that, any of those teams could rise up to No.2. 

American League Central Future Odds

• Chicago White Sox -190
• Detroit Tigers +600
• Minnesota Twins +600
• Cleveland Guardians +900
• Kansas City Royals +1400

Chicago White Sox (Best Bet)

Key Additions: 2B Josh Harrison, RP Kendall Graveman
Key Subtractions: SP Carlos Rodon

Chicago should once again have one of the best offenses in baseball. They could easily have multiple 30+ home run hitters and the lineup has few weaknesses. They are not the most nimble team and that is going to affect them in the field and on the basepaths. Second baseman Yoan Moncada is still a player some believe has a high ceiling. We have seen flashes and if he develops into an All-Star level player this lineup gets that much scarier.

Losing Rodon in the rotation hurts the Sox. They had been waiting on him for a while and last season was his best in the majors. They have lots of talented arms and he was as good as any of them, but they still have one of the best rotations in the majors with upside potential from improvements by Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. Chicago has arguably the best bullpen in the majors as well. Liam Hendricks and Craig Kimbrel are the best 1-2 punch at the back of any pen in my eyes and while I love when starters go deep into the ball game, the Sox starters don't have to. 

It is hard not to like the White Sox to win the division again with ease. They have the best lineup, best rotation, and the best bullpen in the group. Maybe not the best manager but it is unlikely that costs them too much. 

Detroit Tigers

Key Additions: SS Javy Baez, C Tucker Barnhart, SP Eduardo Rodriguez
Key Subtractions: SP Mathew Boyd

You could see that Detroit was on the rise last season. It did not quite push for the playoffs but the improvement was easy to see on the field and in the standings. Then the Tigers went and made some strategic investments. I love the addition of SS Javy Baez. He is an elite defender at a critical position and a dangerous hitter. The addition of Barnhart improves them up the middle too. The offense is still light compared to other top AL teams but if prospect Spencer Torkelson is the real deal they could be above average there. 

Starters Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal were solid last season. Now they have to show us what level of ceiling they have. If those guys are the real deal then things could get interesting more quickly than expected, but either way, the Tigers added a solid arm in the form of Rodriguez to take some of the pressure off. The bullpen is not quite at the level you want for a contending team but maybe an arm breaks through. Detroit is very interesting.

If you are going to make a play on a team other than Chicago this feels like the way to go. It is a big if though.

Minnesota Twins

Key Additions: SS Carlos Correa, 3B Gio Urshela, C Gary Sanchez, SP Sony Gray
Key Subtractions: 3B Josh Donaldson, C Mitch Garver

Minnesota might have fallen to last place in the division last season but it was not a total embarrassment. Nevertheless, the Twins appear set to climb up the standings with the moves they have made. Getting Correa is a very nice acquisition but if this club is going to go anywhere they need a healthy and productive season from OF Byron Buxton. Miguel Sano also has to be more of an All-Star level player. The Twins have raised their floor but if those guys struggle, or are hurt again, it is not going to work this season. 

On the mound, things are murky for the Twins. I like the addition of starter Sonny Gray but he is probably not a true ace. After him, the likes of Dylan Bundy and the recently acquired Chris Archer are not inspiring a ton of confidence. Those are lottery ticket acquisitions, not strategic pickups. The bullpen is mediocre at best and they are going to be asked to pitch a lot of innings as the rotation has no "horses". 

Minnesota's offense is going to give them a chance in a lot of games. They are better than Detroit there but on the mound, the Tigers are better. I am just not seeing how it would all come together for Minny.

Cleveland Guardians

Key Additions: Nothing significant
Key Subtractions: Nothing significant.

3B Jose Ramirez has become one of the most consistent and productive hitters in the majors but the Guardians still have one of the worst offenses. After Ramirez, it is a bunch of player sub-replacement level players most of who have already reached whatever ceiling they have. OF/DH Franmil Reyes has as much power as anyone in the league but after him there is no player you have to be careful pitching to. When they finally trade Ramirez it will be to retool for the future, not compete in the now. 

On the mound, they have the arms to make sure we are not looking at a Baltimore Orioles kind of situation. Ace Shane Bieber is elite and the rest of the rotation can fall in behind him. Health is going to be key as all of these guys have had questions in the past. The rotation is above average but the bullpen is not. I love the story of outfielder turned reliever Anthony Gose, but the fact that they are relying on him says a lot. 

You might be able to pick and choose some spots with Cleveland but consistent winning is going to be tough when you can't score. 

Kansas City Royals

Key Additions: SP Zach Greinke, RP Amir Garrett
Key Subtractions: SP Mike Minor, SP Jakob Junis

Kansas City might be able to compete better than expected this season. I actually like their lineup even if most of their players are on the wrong side of 30. Having the best hitting catcher in the game is a nice place to start (Sal Perez) and in 3B Bobby Witt Jr. they have one of the more exciting prospects in the game. SS Adalberto Mondesi is one of the most exciting players in the game too (when healthy). The Royals will score some runs. 

While the offense has promise I am not sure where the outs are going to come from. Greinke's acquisition was a nice nod to the past and he can still pitch but the fact that he is at the top of the rotation is scary. He just isn't that guy anymore. Beyond Greinke are a number of arms that have yet to prove themselves in the majors. They all walk too many hitters and give up too many hits. There is not an elite arm that can be expected to close out games consistently either.

You could make a case for the Royals to finish anywhere from second to fifth in the AL Central but even if their offense is in the top ten in the majors, with that pitching staff it is going to be hard to workaround.