American League East betting preview

Last year, three teams in the American League East made the playoffs. The Toronto Blue Jays won 91 games and missed the postseason by a game, fueling an offseason of upgrades all across the roster. They are not just the favorite in the division, but in the American League. 

Meanwhile, the New York Yankees have not been as active as expected, inviting scrutiny as the New York Mets have been spending lots of owner's Steve Cohen's money to return to relevance. 

There are two certainties in the American League East right now. The first is that the Orioles are going to be a non-factor. We might see some of their rookies offer some hope, but if they win even 60 games, it will be a surprise. 

The second is that the Tampa Rays start the season as the most unpredictable team in baseball. Last year they won 100 games, tops in the American League, but how they do it is a very difficult math equation to solve before the season starts. 

Here is a look at each American League East team, through the lens of their future odds to win the division.

2022 American League East Odds

• Toronto Blue Jays +195
• New York Yankees +230
• Tampa Bay Rays +250
• Boston Red Sox +475
• Baltimore Orioles +15000

Toronto Blue Jays (BEST BET)

Key Additions: SP Kevin Gausman, 3B Matt Chapman, SP Yusei KickuchiKey Subtractions: 2B Marcus Semien, SP Robbie Ray

Toronto enjoyed a strong season a year ago, and there are so many reasons they can be even better this season. For starters, they are going to play in front of their fans in their own ballpark all season long, no more splitting the season between Florida, Buffalo and Toronto. Also, they hopefully will enjoy better injury luck after using 38 pitchers a year ago and seeing last year's top free-agent acquisition, OF George Springer play in just 78 games. Losing the likes of Semien and Ray hurt, but they have been "replaced" by Gausman and Chapman, players who can honestly be expected to match the production those players would have been most likely to produce in 2022.

Toronto had a lot go right for it last year, too, but super seasons from the likes of 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. and SS Bo Bichette confirm their elite prospect status and are unlikely to be outliers. Their lineup had four players with 100+ RBIs last season and scoring runs will once again be no problem. Match that with the best starting rotation in the division (and likely the American League), and Toronto is a great pick to win the AL East this season. 

I usually want more bang for my buck with my future plays, but the Jays are the best bet. 

New York Yankees

Key Additions: 3B Josh Donaldson, SS Isaiah Kiner-FalefaKey Subtractions: C Gary Sanchez, 3B Gio Urshela

To be honest, I am not sure how the Yankees won consistently last season, so I am right there with their fans as being frustrated with their moves this offseason. Moving off Gary Sanchez yielded Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa to improve the left side of their infield, but it is hard to know exactly what they are getting. At least in the case of Kiner-Falefa, they are getting more athletic. This team has plenty of raw power but still looks like a lineup that is going to have to go station-to-station and hope for three-run homers.

The lineup should provide enough offense, but the pitching is very questionable after ace Gerrit Cole. Cole could rebound and be the best starting pitcher in the game, and it would still be hard for this rotation to be much more than average. Over the years, New York has become ever more dependent on their bullpen and learned that those guys are often lights out one season and not so much the next. It is surprising they did not make play for Ray or Gausman. New York looks like a .500 team to me. 

You can wait on this team and see how it goes. I am not very optimistic. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Key Additions: SP Corey Kluber
Key Subtractions: DH Nelson Cruz

Tampa won 100 games last year and returns largely intact. Does that mean they can do it again? Since I never thought they could in the first place, I am skeptical but have to admit that if young players like SS Wander Franco, SP Shane Baz and SP Shane McClanahan perform well after the league gets a better sense of their strengths and weaknesses, it is possile. At some point, they are going to get SP Ty Glasnow back from injury, too, and that could give them a boost.

I am actually more comfortable with the young guys than I am with the likes of 1B Brandon Lowe clubbing 39 homers again and OF Austin Meadows matching his 106 runs driven in. The offense has me worried and that is going to be a lot of pressure on a pitching staff that might not have anyone capable of throwing enough innings to quality for the ERA title. That means they are going to lean just as hard a ever on a bullpen that was better two seasons ago than it was last season. Tampa is always one of the toughest teams to figure out. 

The values are getting better as we go down the list but I want more bang for my buck with the Rays. Play them when they are underdogs and hope for the best. 

Boston Red Sox

Key Additions: SS Trevor Story, OF Jackie Bradley Jr.
Key Subtractions: OF Kyle Schwarber, SP Eduardo Rodriguez

Similar to the Yankees above, I don't know how the Red Sox won like they did last season. I think the pickup of Story is going to be massive. In this lineup, he does not have to be the main guy, but I also would not be surprised if he hits 40 homers playing half his games at Fenway Park. He and Xander Bogaerts quickly become one of the best keystone combos in the majors. 3B Rafael Devers has risen to become the most dangerous hitter in the lineup and his ceiling can be even more than what we have seen. That is good because DH JD Martinez, while effective, is in obvious decline. 

Starter Chris Sale threw 42 innings last season and he looked good, so having him all season long is going to be important for Boston this season. Unfortunately, I am not very enthusiastic about the rest of the rotation. Nathan Eovaldi is wildly inconsistent and the additions of Michael Wacha and Rich Hill are more of the lottery ticket variety. Like the Yankees, they are going to have to lean hard on their bullpen. Boston won 92 games last season, but a 10-game drop in wins looks likely this year.

I think Boston is the second best team in the division, so there is some value here. 

Baltimore Orioles

Key Additions: SP Jordan Lyles
Key Subtractions: None

The O's found some offense last season but still saw put another terrible season in the books. 1B Ryan Mountcastle and OF Cedric Mullins both hit more than 30 homers last season, and you have to wonder if the latter can really be expected to keep up that level of production going forward. If the offense takes anything close to a step back, this group is going to be sunk even more than it has been of late. Catcher Adley Rutschman is one of the top prospects in the game. He will be up soon even if he does not start the season with the club. 

Lefty John Means can be a very effective starter, but there is not much in the way of MLB-level talent in the rest of the rotation. Until they can find some more arms, it is going to be tough for Baltimore to be competitive for more than just a couple of games at a time. The outlook for the bullpen might be a little better, but that is all relative. 

Baltimore is going to be able to slug their way to some wins, but in this super competitive division, there are going to be lots of ugly results. Not even worth the risk with that big payoff.