Three reasons why the Cleveland Indians could make (or miss) the World Series

While much attention has been paid to the potential for the generations spanning World Series drought for the Chicago Cubs to come to close this year, there is another long-standing World Series-less run that is under siege currently.

It has been since 1948 that the Cleveland Indians last raised a pennant in their town. While they got close a few times in the mid-'90s they never broke all the way through. And now as they prepare for their first American League Championship Series since 2007, they have a distinct opportunity to attempt to break that dry run if they can outlast the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays have reverted back into baseball’s most dangerous lineup over the past few weeks, making short work of the Texas Rangers in route to their second ALCS in as many years. The Indians will be faced with a similar challenge as they just overcame in sweeping the Boston Red Sox during their Division Series matchup: a potent offense, supported by a pitching staff that has the potential to be great itself.

The series between the two teams should be one that takes more than the minimum amount of games to settle. However, few would predict for both ALDS matchups to be done in such a swift manner either. So can the Indians continue their tear through the American League playoffs and dispatch of a second AL East team in as many rounds?

Here are the keys to what it would take to do so – as well as where it could go wrong.

Keys to the Series

Corey Kluber

He is the foremost pitcher in the series and should have the upper hand in any pitching matchup he is involved in. Kluber put to bed any concerns about the groin injury he sustained during his final regular season start, by firing seven scoreless innings in Game 2 of the ALDS. Kluber split a pair of starts against the Jays on the year, and is in line to potentially pitch three games in the series, two of which would be at Progressive Field where he has won 11 games at on the year.

Andrew Miller

Having the most versatile reliever in the game is never a bad thing, especially this time of year. Miller has pitched in any and all situations this season, especially since reaching Cleveland. He has 10 holds, three saves and four wins as a member of the Indians, all while striking out 46 batters and walking only two. That versatility was further put on display in the variety of situations he can be utilized in, thus creating an instant stopper to any dangerous situation that arises along the way. Miller pitched the fifth and sixth innings of Game 1 of the ALDS, then bridged the sixth and seventh in the decisive game two.

Jose Ramirez

He gets none of the acclaim but has been the balance in the Indians lineup all year. The 23-year-old third baseman as suited up at LF, 2B and SS as well, and quietly led the team with a .312 batting average on the year, while clubbing 46 doubles and stealing 22 bases as well. He carried his understated act over into the postseason, carrying a .500 (5-for-10) average with a double and a pair of walks against the Red Sox.

Josh Tomlin

Tomlin has made it his habit to regularly make effective starts throughout the year. He has not given up more than two runs in an outing since August, and is a vital part in stabilizing the undermanned Cleveland postseason rotation. He pitched five strong innings in the clinching Game 3 against Boston, and if he can stay in his standard six inning time frame of a 1.92 ERA that he has carried since September, that will be more than enough to get their bullpen a chance to win the rest of the way.

Three Reasons Why They Could Win

1. Pitching wins championships

Due to injuries to All-Star Danny Salazar and talented righty Carlos Carascco, the Indians have taken a rotation into the postseason that is not a carbon copy of the one that was one of the most formidable units in the game this year. However, this has not been an issue because they have a  deep and adaptable bullpen that can easily balance carrying multiple innings on a daily basis. The addition of Miller has been huge, as it has solidified roles all around him. The possible addition of Salazar to the ALCS roster adds yet another potent weapon capable of collaborating as an extra inning option for the Indians as well. As the Kansas City Royals proved a year ago, it does not require a star-studded starting staff up-and-down a series rotation to get the job done.

2. Putting the pressure on Russell Martin

The Indians were the busiest base running team in baseball this year, leading the Majors in stolen bases, as well as runs created on the base paths. Conversely, Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin only threw out 15% of would-be base thieves, by and far the worst total of his career. Just as recently as last year, Martin was a run-stopper behind the plate, leading the AL by cutting down 44% of runners. So the track record is there to say proceed with caution, but the current returns indicate to try him as often as possible. The Indians should release Rajai Davis (who posted an AL-best 43 steals) and company often to put the pressure on Blue Jay pitchers with runners in scoring position as much as possible.

3. Fearless Francona

Terry Francona has done this dance before, and it shows. Francona, who won two World Series as the manager of the Boston Red Sox, knows the right times to take a gamble and when to bide his time with his roster this time of season. Having an experienced and knowledgeable, yet unafraid manager pulling the strings is a major asset this time of year, and the Indians have a decisive advantage with him on their side.

Three Reasons Why They Could Lose

1. Overwhelmed by Toronto’s instant offense

Despite having some success in trading shots with the Red Sox via the long ball, the Indians are not a team that is built to do this on a regular basis. Conversely, it is the hallmark of the Blue Jay attack and allows them to shovel dirt on an opponent in rapid fashion. If the Blue Jays bats are finding gold over the fences often, they could easily bury the Indians less-powerful lineup.

2. Too much pressure on starters

The aforementioned alterations to the Indians rotation could leave it susceptible to being overwhelmed. While Kluber has been one of the best pitchers and foremost workhorses in baseball since his 2014 breakout, Tomlin and Trevor Bauer are less predictable. Mike Clevinger will enter the rotation in the ALCS and is scheduled to make his postseason debut in Game 4. The rookie had a rough go at it over his 17 MLB outings this year, posting a 5.26 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. However, it is the best they have available currently. Having Salazar back to work in long relief could be a benefit, and he could potentially be made into a starter again if the Tribe advances, but for now, overuse/prolonged starts could create issues for the Indians’ pitching depth.

3. Avoid turning to pumpkins on the road

Cleveland was one of the best home teams in baseball this year, carrying a .654 winning percentage and a +105 run differential on the year. That story changed however when they took to the road, finishing just two games above .500 and have a -4 run differential. This means that Games 1 & 2 are extremely important for them to not allow the Jays to take, as they struggled mightily at the Rogers Centre this year. In the four games that the Jays hosted Cleveland, they split the series 2-2, but their victories were 9-6 and a 17-1 drubbing, which Kluber started, no less. Home field advantage is with Cleveland, so they get to open and close the series at home, but they could put themselves in a bad position by losing footing before heading north for the middle three games of the series on Monday.

X-factor: Could they pull off the sweep again?

It seems more plausible that Cleveland could keep up their stingy ways in the loss column than Toronto could. The reason being, once again: pitching, pitching and more pitching. If Cleveland takes care of both games up front on their home turf, anything is possible.

Verdict

The Indians are an awfully complete ball club, capable of producing runs in a variety of ways and supporting its plus pitching staff with the top run preventing defense in the AL. Add in the experience of Francona and the fact that they have had an uncanny knack for the clutch hit so far, and it seems like it will at least be a two sport year for championship play in Cleveland. Indians win series in 7.