An early look at 5 top free agents the Giants should target this offseason

5. Jacob deGrom

Despite Carlos Rodón heading for free agency this offseason, I would be surprised to see the Giants go big-name hunting on the starting pitching market. Last season's class of free agents featured several enticing, relatively young starters and the Giants seemingly made no effort to bring them in. Furthermore, they already have Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Jakob Junis under team control through 2023. It's hard to envision this regime changing course and giving out a big deal.

With that said, Jacob deGrom is a unicorn. He's consistently been the best pitcher in MLB when he's been healthy. In six starts this year, deGrom has been dazzling to watch, racking up 55 strikeouts against just three walks in 36.1 innings pitched with a 1.98 ERA. While injuries have limited him to just 128.1 innings pitched over the past two seasons, deGrom has shown no signs of decline when he has stepped on the mound.

Set to turn 35 next year. deGrom will obviously receive several lucrative offers this winter if he hits the open market, but his long injury history and advanced age could lead him to settle for a short-term deal with a high average annual value. Perhaps that entices the Giants to get involved.

Max Scherzer set a record last offseason with a three-year, $130 million contract. Could the Giants bring deGrom to San Francisco with a two-year, $90 million offer? While president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi would be committing roughly a fourth of the team's payroll to one player, it would give the SF Giants an opportunity to have the best starting rotation in MLB without having to worry about any commitment to deGrom beyond 2024.

4. Brandon Nimmo

deGrom would be the biggest name free-agent signing by the Giants in more than a decade, but his current teammate with the Mets Brandon Nimmo is probably a more likely candidate to end up in San Francisco.

Nimmo has consistently been an above-average center fielder since the Mets first called him up back in 2016. An exceptional defender, according to almost all advanced analytics, Nimmo also has a patient approach at the plate alongside 10-15 homer power. Nimmo has an excellent .822 OPS over the course of his career, and his 2022 triple slash of .266/.353/.421 is right in line with his previous performances.

A left-handed hitter, Nimmo has done more damage against righties but has still maintained a solid .260/.366/.409 triple-slash against southpaws as well. Given his defensive acumen in center field, the Giants will not have to worry about finding a platoon partner for Nimmo in center like they have with Yastrzemski. That could have an excellent domino effect to solidify the Giants' outfield

With Nimmo in center, Yastrzemski and Austin Slater would be freed up to play in the corners, where both excel defensively. If the SF Giants just added an average everyday player (e.g. David Peralta) to hold down left field, Yastrzemski and Slater could enter a traditional platoon that could help their offensive production return to their 2020-2021 levels.

Center fielders Starling Marte and Chris Taylor received four-year deals worth $72 million and $60 million respectively last offseason. Both were older than Nimmo will be this winter (he turns next March), but neither struggled with durability as much as Nimmo throughout their careers and Taylor offers exceptional defensive versatility. For those reasons, Nimmo will likely land a three or four-year deal with an average annual value in the $14-$18 million range. If the SF Giants believe in Nimmo's health, they could very well make him a top target.

3. José Abreu

Set to turn 36 in January, Abreu would immediately be the oldest player on the Giants roster. However, 2022 has shown the Giants that they need to be less reliant on platoons going forward. They need to find a few players who can consistently contribute against left and right-handed hitters. Abreu has consistently been one of the best all-around hitters in MLB since he signed with the White Sox back in 2013. San Francisco will have a hard time finding a more well-rounded bat to solidify their lineup than Abreu.

Over the past four seasons, Abreu is hitting .288/.356/.498 with an average of 24 home runs a year. Perhaps most important of all, Abreu has been one of the most durable players in MLB missing just 15 regular-season games over that span. While the Giants have had excellent stints from first basemen like Brandon Belt, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Wilmer Flores, their lineup has been hamstrung by injuries to each of those players. It's obviously impossible to predict injuries with a great deal of certainty, and Abreu's age is a cause for concern, but it's hard to argue with his track record.

Making Abreu an even more appealing target, his walk rate has taken huge steps forward over the past two years, and he's posting the best strikeout rate of his career in 2022. Defensively, Abreu has been an average or better defender at first base according to most advanced analytics but also has the bat to justify playing designated hitter.

Abreu is currently in the final season of a three-year, $50 million deal, and given his performance, a new contract in that range is well within the range of possibilities this offseason, with a three-year, $70 million contract probably approaching the ceiling of potential outcomes. While a deal in that range is far from a cheap contract, it also will be far smaller (and shorter) than the contracts handed out to younger premium bats this offseason. With Brandon Belt's future uncertain and the White Sox likely turning to younger bats at first base and designated hitter, Abreu is an obvious target for the SF Giants.

2. Trea Turner

The Dodgers have to sign star infielder Trea Turner to an extension before he reaches free agency, right? Turner has been fantastic for the SF Giants biggest rivals since they acquired him from the Nationals at the 2021 trade deadline. Turner has hit .314/.360/.505 with 37 doubles, 7 triples, 24 home runs, and 33 stolen bases in 183 games with the Dodgers over the past season and a half while playing exceptional defense at shortstop and second base.

Yet, the Dodgers did not attempt to sign Turner to an extension prior to this season, and it seems like the 29-year-old is set to hit the open market. Easily one of the 15 best players in MLB, every team should try to sign Turner. Besides his bat and infield defense, he has also shown the ability to be an above-average defensive center fielder in the past. For a Giants team that values versatility and has holes all over the field, the potential fit is obvious.

The question is, will the Giants be willing to offer Turner a big enough contract to keep him from signing with another team? That remains to be seen. San Francisco has plenty of budget room to make a major addition this offseason.

Turner's agent will likely try to top the 10-year, $325 million contract that Corey Seager received last offseason, and there might be a team willing to do that even though Turner is two years older than Seager was. Turner has not missed much time due to injuries in recent years and is an excellent defender at multiple premium spots (two things that were not true for Seager). If teams are less willing to spend this offseason, though, Anthony Rendon's seven-year, $245 million deal feels like the floor for Turner.

1. Aaron Judge

Of course, if we are talking about star power and this year's free-agent class, there's no bigger name than Aaron Judge. The Linden, California native has been a face of MLB ever since his amazing rookie season. Since 2017, Judge has only recorded a sub-.900 OPS once, and that was during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.

This year, Judge is chasing history. He currently leads the league with 52 home runs and has a legitimate shot at breaking the American League's single-season home run record. Yet do not let Judge's big power numbers lead you to believe he's a one-sided player. He is hitting .296/.399/.666 this year and is a career .280 hitter with exceptional walk rates. Judge has struggled with strikeouts at times, but he's cut his K-rate significantly over the past two seasons to 25.3% (down from the 30% rate he hovered around in the first four years of his career).

Judge is also an excellent outfield defender, having graded above average or better in right field every year of his career, per Outs Above Average. This season, he has shown off even more versatility, grading out as league average center fielder as well.

More importantly for the Giants, Judge and the Yankees seem destined to part ways this winter. The Yankees are reportedly refusing to offer him more than $32.5 million a year, a ways away from his $36 million per season asking price.

Judge will be 31 next season, and while the Yankees seem hesitant to match his annual salary request, the bigger question for the Giants will likely be the length of his contract. Will they be willing to commit to paying Judge into his forties? If not, are there other teams out there who will?

Judge grew up an SF Giants fan and loved Barry Bonds. If the Giants sign him this offseason, he will be the franchise's biggest acquisition since Bonds back in 1992. The parallels are obvious. All the Giants need to do is line up the money.