Analyst advises Alex Bregman to avoid Cubs 'at all costs'

The Cubs and the Boston Red Sox appear to be the favorites to land the All-Star third baseman. Some reports have the Toronto Blue Jays in the mix. Other reports have the Astros still firmly in the mix, but Astros GM Dana Brown, at a recent media luncheon, said the team had “lost” Bregman. Most recently, reports have surfaced that Bregman would not be entertaining short-term deals, something which would seem to be a big hit to the likelihood of the Cubs signing him.

One MLB insider feels that there’s definitely one place where Bregman shouldn't sign.

Bregman advised to avoid signing with the Cubs

Analyst Jesse Rogers, in a recent edition of ESPN "Baseball Tonight," said the veteran free agent should avoid signing with Chicago "at all costs."

Per Rogers:

“He should avoid the Chicago Cubs at all costs. And the primary reason for that is the environment. I went to Baseball Savant, went to the Park Factors leaderboards, sorted by right-handed hitters, and just examined how much of a liability he would be playing in, in Wrigley Field. And the answer is astonishing. It is the most difficult ballpark of any for a right-handed hitter to double. Which is basically the most important skill that Alex Bregman needs to be chasing.

"His fly ball potency is not nearly what it used to be and if he’s not going to play in an environment like he was in Houston, where the Crawford boxes are 310 feet away, what he needs to be doing is chasing 40 doubles. That’s [Wrigley Field] the worst place in baseball to be doing it…

"What I’m doing if I’m Alex Bregman, is doing the very opposite. I’m looking at Toronto and I’m looking at Boston and saying ‘How do I get myself on a proven contract in an environment like that, that matches my swing, that matches my bat speed, that matches my skill set.’ More agents, more players should be doing that, retro-fitting their player’s skill to their environment and Chicago is the very worst place I can think he could wind up.”

There’s some truth to those words. As a matter of fact, Isaac Paredes, who was traded by the Cubs to the Astros in the Kyle Tucker deal this past December, is predicted to excel at Minute Maid Park (now Daikin Park) precisely because the Astros’ home field is so favorable to right-handed pull hitters like Paredes.

But this is surely something the Cubs front office has also considered. The hitter-friendliness of Wrigley Field can be all over the place, based on how the wind is blowing any particular game, month or season. There’s always going to be a factor of unpredictability when it comes to Wrigley.

Meanwhile, Bregman’s glove, field leadership and veteran stability give him multiple plusses above and beyond his bat skills. It could be argued that 20 or 30 points shaved off his batting average would not be a deal-killer when it comes to the decision to bring him aboard.

With spring training fast approaching, fans will find out soon enough how this Bregman drama plays out.