Analyst's D-backs Projection Will Have Fans Uneasy

Petriello highlighted the D-backs' pitching staff (to little surprise) as a problem area that contributed to Arizona's less-than-ideal projection ranking.

In particular, he noted the starting rotation.

"The rotation was supposed to be a strength in 2025, but Corbin Burnes getting injured and Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt both posting ERAs north of 5 put an end to that, leading to Merrill Kelly getting traded in July," Petriello wrote.

"With Gallen no longer on the roster (though he received a qualifying offer), this is projected to be baseball’s fourth-weakest rotation at the moment, so adds are vital to support a productive, entertaining lineup.

"That can’t all be done via free agency, so a trade from outfield depth seems like a possibility."

The D-backs' rotation, as it stands, would be led by Ryne Nelson, Pfaadt and Rodriguez, with the 4-5 slots being filled by a dealer's choice of Bryce Jarvis, Cristian Mena or any number of minor league arms.

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It's not just the rotation, however. Arizona's bullpen is in a dire state. In fact, the D-backs' overall relief pitcher projection is the fifth-worst in baseball.

So where will the wins come from, if the pitching staff is so depleted? Petriello points to Arizona's engine — the top of their All-Star-studded order:

"Yet with maybe the best middle infield in the game between Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo, as well as an MVP-caliber outfielder in Corbin Carroll -- all Silver Slugger winners -- this roster isn’t that far away from making noise in the National League. As long as someone can get some outs, that is," Petriello continued.

The issue is Arizona has not gotten much production offensively from anyone but Carroll, Perdomo and Marte (and perhaps Gabriel Moreno, when healthy). The bottom 5-9 in the D-backs' order produced well below average following the 2025 Trade Deadline.

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Arizona has many needs to fill, and very little resources to do so with. They need two starting pitchers, multiple relief arms (including a closer), a first baseman, a backup catcher and a right-handed outfielder.

With a reduced payroll looming, the trade market will have to supply some of those needs, but it may be hard — if not impossible — to bolster every position enough to outperform Petriello's projection by much more than a handful of spots.

Buckle up for a bumpy 2026.

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