Andrew Abbott Is Pitching at a New Level

Abbott has gone to the change-up 21.3% of the time, a significant jump from about 16% each of the past two seasons. The down and away movement has righties lunging at the pitch, leading to a .115 average, 32.4% whiff rate, and only an 83.8-mph average exit velocity.

The pitch’s vertical movement, in this case, its drop, has improved by over three inches compared to last year. Even when batters have made contact, it’s rarely been effective.

As you can see from the image above, Abbott’s control of his changeup has been excellent. He’s often able to place the pitch on the outside edge, or just out of the zone, which is a difficult location for hitters to do much with.

Abbott has also introduced a cutter, in a smaller sample, that he uses from time to time against righties to give them more to think about. We’ll see how he utilizes it throughout the year and if an increase in usage happens over time.

When you also consider his curveball and sweeper, each producing over a 25% whiff rate, you can see why he gets away with a lower-velocity fastball. I would say his command of the curveball is better, but his sweeper has produced some uncomfortable at-bats.

What has really been remarkable is how well Abbott has pitched in Great American Ball Park, a park that can be a nightmare for some pitchers. He’s allowed only one home run in four home starts and given up two earned runs across 20 innings. This goes to show his greatest strength: inducing weak contact.

For the third straight season, Abbott’s average exit velocity against has dropped. From 91.2 mph in his rookie year, to 88.2 mph last season, and 86.8 mph this year. Sure, he walks a few more batters than you would like, but soft contact has allowed him to limit the damage. He’s cut his home run-to-fly ball ratio in half, which has really helped him with run prevention.

What’s Next for Abbott?

The main complaint I hear about Abbott is how few innings he pitches. Of his eight starts this season, only two have gone longer than five innings. I get it. We all love to see a starter work deep into games, but that’s not as important as efficiency.

We all know how most pitchers fare the third time through the order, and although Abbott has been better than most the third time through, preserving his innings needs is another important consideration. In each of the past two seasons, Abbott has faltered down the stretch.

While the size of each sample varies and it’s not a perfect science, there is a trend. It was obvious that something changed down the stretch in both seasons. Fatigue would be my best guess and an important factor to watch this season.

For Abbott to truly take the step forward that he has shown flashes of so far, he’s going to have to prove he can pitch at a high level for the entire season. If he is more of a five-and-dive starter, that’s perfectly fine. As long as he’s productive and healthy, mostly five-inning outing will not destroy the bullpen, especially when you consider this is not an issue across the rotation.

The next thing I’ll be watching is how his fastball fares going forward. The 6% jump in swing and miss is promising, but it is still a pitch he struggles the most with and tends to give up home runs on. Now that he’s using it less, we’ll see what happens.

Final Thoughts

The Reds’ frustrating offense and frequent, avoidable mistakes have overshadowed just how effective their starting rotation has been. Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, and Abbott have shown they can be the engine that drives this team.

Although the Reds made a few external additions over the winter, their biggest bet was always on internal improvement. So far, Andrew Abbott has passed that test with flying colors. Now, it’s time for a few others to follow suit.

We’re not ready to crown him a Cy Young after just seven starts, but the growth and adjustments we’ve seen from him week in and week out have been one of the most underrated storylines of the Reds’ season.