Are the Twins Making a Mistake With Their Assets?

The offseason is just starting to ramp up. We have seen Dylan Cease, Pete Alonso, and Kyle Schwarber all sign lucrative deals to get things started. Three more players that many thought would be on different teams in 2026 are the Minnesota Twins’ three big stars.

Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez were all anticipated to be moved. The latest news out of the Twins’ front office, however, is indicating that this will not be the case. Are they making a mistake?

The 2025 trade deadline for the Twins looked like the kick start to an official rebuild. They traded off a handful of players on expiring contracts but also some with considerable control. Louis Varland, Jhoan Duran, and Griffin Jax among those more notable players.

This all seemed to be leading up to the eventual move of those three big names this off season. However, it now appears that the tune of the organization has changed.

President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has talked about building on this roster with hopes of competing. Credit to Falvey for having so much faith, however might he be overestimating his own abilities? Turning the Twins into a playoff-caliber roster given the team’s current resources seems like a very tall task.

There are three likely outcomes from this decision should Falvey’s words hold true: Everything goes to plan, the Twins delay the inevitable, or it blows up in their face. Here is a look at how all three of those could come true.

Path to the Playoffs

How does this plan of Falvey’s work out? What is the best case scenario for the Twins? It is finding a way to field a playoff team.

There is a clear path to making this roster one that can win 80 games and maybe hang around in the wild-card race. The path to making the Twins a playoff team becomes less clear, though.

The Twins are currently projected to have a payroll of $96 million in 2026. That gives them $40 million to work with to get back to last year’s payroll of $136 million. That likely is not enough to make this a playoff team. As said previously, it feels as if Falvey might be overestimating his abilities.

What does the offseason look like for the Twins in this scenario?

Potential Offseason:

• Mitch Garver: 1 year, $5 million (0.6)
• Luis Arraez: 2 years, $28 million (1.5)
• Willi Castro: 2 years, $18 Million (1.2)

The ideal offseason for the Twins should look something like what is listed above. Ha-Seong Kim would have headlined the list of additions above before he signed a one-year, $20 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.

The problem, and the reason why he was so pricey, is that the shortstop market really drops off behind Kim. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is likely the next-best pivot choice, but how much does he move the needle? The answer is likely not much.

Point being, those don’t need to be the exact signings, but it should be those players or someone similar to get this team substantially better. The team already added slugging first baseman Josh Bell earlier this week on a one-year contract, a move that fits the mold of the ones suggested above.

A couple of concerns come to mind. The first is whether or not ownership is willing to spend the money necessary. The second is whether or not adding those players make this team good enough to make the playoffs.

I did include the 2026 projected fWARs for these players for a reason. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Twins are projected the 17th-highest fWAR total in baseball (38.8). With the above signings they would jump to a projected fWAR of 42.1. That would only trail the Blue Jays, Mariners, Yankees, and Red Sox in the American League (for now).

There are obviously more moves to be made, so other teams would move with regards to their projected fWAR. The point remains, however, that if the Twins spend enough money they can build a playoff roster, but that is a big if.

Delaying the Inevitable

Are the Twins just delaying the inevitable? This is perhaps the most likely result of holding onto Buxton, Lopez, and Ryan. What could lead to this scenario and how does it play out?

As stated, for the Twins to make the playoffs and have a competitive season they need to spend on some free agents. If that doesn’t happen, or the free agents do not pan out, they could be in trouble. That is a recipe for what happened last year.

The Twins could again find themselves a couple games under .500 at the All-Star break with a decision to make. They will again have to decide if they want to sell off assets. Only this time it will likely have to include their three biggest names and potentially more.

Delaying a rebuild can turn into a nightmare scenario. Just take a look at the Angels. The Angels have not made the playoffs since 2014 and it is largely due to failing to build around their stars. Then when it became clear that they may need to tear things down and start over, they refused.

The downside to this is obviously they are running some risk. On top of that, they are also going to be losing some of the value that these players offer.

Buxton could fail to repeat what he did last season. He is about to turn 32, so it isn’t too far fetched to say he could regress to a 120 wRC+. Is he going to garner the same trade interest if he looks like a 2.0-win player instead of the 3.0 to 5.0-win player we have grown accustom to?

Ryan and Lopez are going to have a year and a half of control instead of two, which will hurt their value as well. Holding off on trading these players, just to do so later, would be less than ideal.

The Worst-Case Scenario

The Angels were mentioned in the previous paragraph, but this is the real Angels scenario. If the Twins do not trade Buxton, Ryan, or Lopez at any point this year and end up struggling, they could end up in a bad place.

Again, this is contingent on the team struggling. If they do and miss the playoffs while holding onto all three players, they are going to miss out on a lot of potential value.

Lets fast forward to the end of the season and assume all of this happens. The team misses the playoffs and they keep everyone. What kind of return are the Twins looking at for these three players?

Buxton will be going on 33 and likely aging out of being a strong center field defender. Ryan and Lopez will be one year away from free agency with Lopez costing upwards of $20 million. If they are bad, Ryan likely will not be extended and they will be forced to trade him for table scraps.

All of this said, and the potential for a lockout hasn’t even been factored in. If the worst-case scenario plays out and the 2027 season is cancelled (albeit, highly unlikely), they will lose Ryan and Lopez for nothing.

If there is a season but it is shortened significantly, what is a team going to offer for 15-20 starts of Ryan and/or Lopez. Not committing to a rebuild by trading these players could prove incredibly risky for the Twins.

What are the Twins Giving Up?

The point of this article is to try and gather whether or not the Twins are making a mistake. In order to do so, lets try and take a look at the Twins’ outlook for the near future in two different scenarios. The first being they do not trade anyone at all, and the second being they trade Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez.

What would each of these players fetch in a trade? Here are three hypothetical trade packages for all three players:

Byron Buxton to the Philadelphia Phillies for Justin Crawford (JB overall No. 90), Moises Chace, and Seth Johnson.

Pablo Lopez to the New York Mets for Mark Vientos and Ryan Clifford (NYM No. 7).

Joe Ryan to the Baltimore Orioles for Coby Mayo, Enrique Bradfield Jr. (BAL No. 6), and Wehiwa Aloy (BAL No. 10).

Try not to think too much about these trade packages. This is just for the sake of a thought exercise. Now that potential trade packages have been laid out, lets look at what the Twins potential 2028 lineup and rotation look like in both scenarios.

Minnesota Twins Potential 2028 Team – No Trades