Arizona Diamondbacks Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Arizona Diamondbacks Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 34

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 10

OPTIONS: None

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 5; Jansel Luis, Cristofer Torin, Wellington Aracena, Ashton Izzi, Yu-Min Lin

LARS NOOTBAAR (5.076): $6,700,000 ($1.45M raise)

The Case: Nootbaar enters his final trip through arbitration from a $5.25M salary after another injury-shortened season. He spent more than two months on the IL but returned healthy and finished with 334 PA, 8 HR, 33 RBI and a 102 wRC+.

Joey Wendle (2022, $1.45M raise) provides the best comparison. Wendle entered from a $4.55M Arb-2 salary and totaled 371 PA with 3 HR, 32 RBI and an 82 wRC+ while spending 50 days on the IL. Nootbaar has slightly less platform-year bulk and spent somewhat more time on the IL, but he holds clear advantages in power and offensive quality while essentially matching Wendle’s RBI production.

The extra missed time prevents Nootbaar from building an argument substantially above Wendle, but his quality and power advantages are significant enough that he should at least match Wendle’s $1.45M raise despite the lower PA total. I project a $1.45M raise, bringing Nootbaar’s total salary to $6.7M.

Tender Prediction: Nootbaar will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

PAVIN SMITH (4.144): $2,375,000 ($125k raise)

The Case: Smith struggled to stay on the field and did not build enough platform-year bulk to make a meaningful push from his previous salary finishing with only 122 PA, 3 HR and a 55 wRC+.

Miguel Andújar (2023, $175K raise) provides the ceiling comparison. Andújar was also DFA’d during his platform year and finished with only 90 PA, but produced 4 HR and a 105 wRC+. Smith has the slight bulk advantage with 32 additional PA, but Andújar was dramatically better offensively and also more power despite less bulk. I project only a $125k raise from his previous $2.25M salary, bringing his total salary to $2.375M.

Tender Prediction: Smith should certainly be a DFA/non-tender. Just a few months ago, the Diamondbacks cleared Smith through waivers, meaning every team had the chance to claim him and nobody did. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was back with the Diamondbacks in some capacity, but there is no reason to guarantee him over $2M, in my opinion. Non-Tender.

GABRIEL MORENO (4.061): $6,100,000 ($3.55M raise)

The Case: Moreno put together a historic platform season at a premium position, combining offensive production with his value behind the plate. Moreno won the batting title en route to a 141 wRC+ season in 549 PA. His case fits into the upper end of the Arb-2 catcher market, and the combination of his platform-year production and career body of work should allow him to make a substantial jump from his $2.55M Arb-1 salary.

William Contreras (2025, $3.4M raise) provides the primary precedent. Contreras’ $3.4M raise was the largest Arb-2 catcher raise identified over the previous 10 seasons. Contreras accumulated substantially more PA in his platform year, which gives him the clear bulk advantage, but Moreno holds the advantages in wRC+, aWAR, RBI and the defensive metrics. Moreno’s season was simply better on a rate and overall-value basis despite the playing-time disadvantage.

J.T. Realmuto (2018, $3M raise) provides an important second lookback. Realmuto received a $3M raise from an Arb-1 salary very similar to Moreno’s $2.55M starting point. That comparison is important because it removes any argument that Moreno’s relatively modest previous salary should structurally prevent a raise of this size. Realmuto demonstrates that an elite catcher can make a very large Arb-2 jump from this starting-salary neighborhood.

That gives Moreno a legitimate argument to move beyond the existing Contreras benchmark rather than merely match it. The question is whether the lower PA total prevents him from creating meaningful separation. I do not think it does enough to keep him at $3.4M given the batting title, overall value and defensive superiority. I project a $3.55M raise, bringing his total salary to $6.1M.

Tender Prediction: Moreno will be tendered a contract. There are some staggering stats regarding the Diamondbacks’ record with Moreno versus without Moreno, the kind of stuff that plays well in a hearing if Moreno’s representatives want to push it here. Ultimately, I don’t think it will need a hearing. Tender.

RYNE NELSON (4.020): $3,775,000 ($775k raise)

The Case: Nelson was limited by injury in his platform season but still made 15 starts and threw 87.1 IP with a 4.95 ERA. The missed time limits the raise despite Nelson continuing to provide starting-pitching value when healthy. I project a $775k raise from his previous $3M salary, bringing his total salary to $3.775M.

José Urquidy (2023, $725k raise) provides the floor. Urquidy also worked in a hybrid starting/bullpen role, spent a similar amount of time on the IL and entered from a previous salary only $25k higher than Nelson’s. Nelson threw more innings and posted a similar ERA, giving him the statistical advantage within a very similar platform-year structure. I project a $775K raise, bringing Nelson’s total salary to $3.775M.

Tender Prediction: Nelson will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.