A's Odds of Landing the Top Pick in 2026 MLB Draft Are Better Than You'd Think

Coming off a 76-86 season, the Athletics have their sights firmly set on making the postseason in 2026 following the emergence of rookies Nick Kurtz, the frontrunner for American League Rookie of the Year, and Jacob Wilson, who's first full season was comparable to some legendary players of the past 50 years.

Even with the franchise in a good position moving forward, a wrinkle in the draft lottery process could help the Athletics earn the top pick in the 2026 MLB Draft.

According to Baseball America, the A's odds at landing the No. 1 pick are set at 6.55%, which are the fifth-highest in the game. This is a pretty good spot to be for the club, and it's thanks to the Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels all earning lottery picks in the 2025 Draft.

The rules state that a team that pays into revenue sharing cannot pick in the lottery in consecutive seasons, so much like the White Sox this year, the highest they can select in the 10th overall pick. With the Rockies finishing with the worst record, they'll take that spot, followed by the Nationals and Angels.

The A's had to deal with this process in this year's draft, because there is a similar rule for revenue sharing recipients, only the rule is that they cannot select in the lottery in three consecutive seasons. After the A's held the sixth overall pick in 2023 (Jacob Wilson) and the fourth pick in 2024 (Nick Kurtz), they had to "settle" for Jamie Arnold in 2025, one of the top arms in the Draft.

If those three teams had still be in the mix, the A's would have had just 3.9% odds of landing the top spot, so they're in a better position that they would have been. They'll still need some luck in order to pick at the top of the draft, but they'll at least have a better shot that they would have previously.

The four teams with better odds are the White Sox (27.73%), Minnesota Twins (22.18%), Pittsburgh Pirates (16.81%) and the Baltimore Orioles (9.24%). For inspiration, the Cleveland Guardians entered the lottery for the 2024 MLB Draft with the ninth-best odds of landing the top pick, but ended up at the top of the draft anyway, selecting Travis Bazzana.

We'll have to wait a couple of months until the Draft Lottery takes place, but the A's are in a good spot to at least end up selecting in the lottery portion (picks 1-6) of the 2026 MLB Draft.