Astros' Lance McCullers Jr. won't be ready for start of season

Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. told reporters Wednesday that a recent MRI on his ailing right arm revealed a “small muscle strain” and that being ready for Opening Day is “out of the question” (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). McCullers added that there’s no structural damage in his arm and that his ulnar collateral ligament is undamaged. He’ll still be shut down for multiple weeks, which makes a season-opening stint on the injured list seem likely.

It’s another unfortunate health setback for the 29-year-old McCullers, who was limited to eight starts during the 2022 regular season, plus another three in the postseason. That lengthy absence was due to a forearm strain dating back to the 2021 American League Division Series. The 2022 season marked the second time in four years that McCullers missed substantial time due to an arm injury. He missed the entire 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November 2018.

Recent health woes notwithstanding, McCullers is one of the Astros’ most talented starters, evidenced by four consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons with consistently above-average strikeout rates and premium ground-ball rates. Over his past 393 1/3 regular-season innings, McCullers touts a 3.39 ERA, a 26.5% strikeout rate and a huge 55.6% grounder rate. The right-hander’s 10.3% walk rate in that time could stand to be improved upon, but his strikeout and ground-ball rates have helped mitigate what has at times been sub-par command.

The Astros lost Justin Verlander to free agency this winter and opted not to add another starter, due in large part to the organization’s considerable pitching depth. McCullers, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy form a strong quintet upon which to lean, and Houston has one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, Hunter Brown, ready for a big league audition.

If McCullers indeed opens the season on the injured list, his spot in the rotation would likely be filled by Brown. The 24-year-old made a brief MLB debut in 2022, pitching 20 1/3 innings with a sterling 0.89 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 68% grounder rate. That came on top of 106 innings of 2.55 ERA ball in Triple-A — his second successful run at that level.

There’s no indication just yet as to when McCullers might be sufficiently ramped up to join the big league club. His shutdown will likely last into mid-March, and the Astros will presumably have a clearer timeline once he eventually resumes throwing. For now, Brown looks poised to step into the big league rotation, leaving swingman Brandon Bielak and minor league righties Shawn Dubin, J.P. France and former top prospect Forrest Whitley as the Astros’ top depth options in the event of further injury.