Astros to activate Lance McCullers Jr. this weekend

The Astros are planning to reinstate right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. from the injured list this weekend, the team announced to reporters Wednesday (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). He’ll take the ball Sunday to start against the White Sox.

Sunday will mark McCullers’ first appearance on a major league mound since the 2022 postseason. Even in 2022, McCullers was limited to 47 2/3 regular-season innings because of a forearm injury. He made his 2022 debut in August, pitched down the stretch and added another 15 postseason innings. His forearm again flared up in spring training 2023, and McCullers eventually underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm and to remove bone spurs from his elbow.

That procedure ended McCullers’ 2023 season before it began, but the general expectation was that he’d return at some point in 2024. That never came to pass. McCullers worked through a throwing program last summer but never made it to the mound for a rehab start. The Astros revealed in August that McCullers was being shut back down to persisting pain in his surgically repaired right arm. His absence extended into the 2025 season, but after making four rehab starts — including nine straight scoreless Triple-A frames — McCullers is now set to finally return to the majors.

“It’s a day I’ve been waiting for a long time,” McCullers replied when asked what Sunday’s return means to him (video link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). “I almost feel like I’m making my debut in some aspects. It’s been a really long road for me. I thank my teammates, the coaching staff, the Astros organization for standing by me and supporting me.”

Injuries have been a persistent theme throughout the now-31-year-old McCullers’ career, but there’s never been any doubt of his abilities when he’s been healthy enough to pitch. The former No. 41 overall draft pick was a top prospect before making his debut in 2015 and has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in six of his seven major league seasons. Overall, McCullers touts a career 3.48 earned run average, 26.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate in 718 2/3 regular season frames. His work in 72 2/3 postseason innings is nearly identical: 3.47 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate.

It’s impossible to know what to expect from McCullers on the heels of such a lengthy absence. If he can recapture even 80% of his prior form, he’d be a boon to an Astros staff that has five other rotation options on the injured list (Luis Garcia, J.P. France, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti, Shawn Dubin). Hunter Brown has been one of MLB’s best pitchers this year, and fellow starters Framber Valdez and Hayden Wesneski have pitched well. Ryan Gusto has impressed in a small sample of 19 innings since being thrust into the rotation following Arighetti’s injury. Last year’s rotation savior, Ronel Blanco, has stumbled out of the gate with a 5.08 ERA.

On the whole, Astros starters rank seven in the majors with a 3.50 earned run average, but Blanco has struggled and the depth beyond the current quintet is a bit suspect. A healthy McCullers would be a pivotal development.

Houston signed McCullers to a five-year, $85MM extension back in March 2021 — a rare (but hardly unheard of) extension for a Boras Corporation client on the cusp of free agency. He was excellent in ’21, but those previously mentioned 63 innings (regular season and postseason combined) in 2022 are the only innings he’s pitched throughout the duration of that extension. He’s being paid $17MM this year and next in the final two seasons of that contract.