Astros vs. Phillies prediction, pick, odds for Wed. 8/28

Astros vs. Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers

John Feltman’s Astros vs. Phillies Preview

Houston Astros Betting Preview: Favorite Matchup for Jose Altuve

Hand up, the Stros were a bad bet yesterday. Justin Verlander was not sharp and had no business dueling with Aaron Nola yesterday.

Spencer Arrighetti gets the ball on Wednesday and he is one of the most fascinating arms to examine in the league. Notably, he has a K/9 rate of nearly 11 but has a BB/9 rate of 4.09.

As you can see from the head-to-head starting pitcher chart above, Arrighetti's xERA is one run lower than his current ERA due to his ability to generate punchouts. But, you can also see why his WHIP is 1.68.

Arrighetti is also getting hit hard and allows too many fly balls to be consistently effective. If he is not missing bats, there is a good chance that the opposing offense is hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard.

Luckily for the 'Stros bats, they'll get a much tastier matchup against Taijuan Walker, who has some of the same issues as Arrighetti, but exponentially worse.

Jose Altuve has mashed against Walker in the past, going 11-for-32 with four extra-base hits. As a team, the Astros should be able to take advantage of Walker's propensity to allow hard contact and frequent free passes.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Is Taijuan Walker Toast?

Taijuan Walker has had a respectable career, but it's evident that his decline phase has arrived. Walker is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, and that is not a hyperbolic statement.

He finds himself below the 10th percentile in the following categories:

• xERA
• Chase%
• Fastball Velo
• Whiff%
• Avg Exit Velo
• Barrel Rate
• xBA

These are nightmare statistics heading into a matchup against an extremely balanced Astros offense. There is no reason to believe Walker will be effective on Wednesday afternoon — it would take a lot of good fortune and Michael's secret stuff from Space Jam.

If you can't miss bats, walk a lot of hitters and allow frequent hard contact, what purpose are you serving? I'd be stunned if Walker spun a gem.

The good news for the Phillies is they have a reasonable offensive matchup themselves. Arrighetti racks up punchouts, but the Phillies do not strike out very often.

Their numbers are worse against right-handed pitching, but their bats are primed to bounce back after cooling off over the last couple of days. Arrighetti typically has a high pitch count due to his control issues, which could lead to ample run-scoring opportunities for the Phils' bats.

With Walker on the mound, I can't back the Phils' here and I'll be looking to fade them in the early going.

Astros vs. Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis

I am concerned with Arrighetti's inconsistencies on the mound, but I am far more confident the Astros bounce back after being shut out on Tuesday. Walker has no chance of stifling the Astros, so I am going to target Houston in the first five (F5) innings.

The Phillies may end up having success against Arrighetti, but the 'Stros' offense has the upper hand. It is a slam-dunk play for me, and I expect the Astros to have a bit more motivation to avoid the sweep.

Pick: Astros F5 ML 

Moneyline

BET Astros

I think the Astros pour it on early against Walker, whose horrific metrics suggest he could implode. The uncertainty of Arrigihetti is holding me back from making this my official play, which is why I wanted to target the first portion of the game.

Run Line (Spread)

Pass

I lean towards the Astros' run-line, but this is a pass for me. Both offenses should have great success, which leads me to my lean on the total below.

Over/Under

BET Over

Walker is a trainwreck and Arrighetti is prone to allowing free passes and hard contact. Both offenses have been stagnant over the last couple of days, so I expect them both to bounce back.

I see a lot of sharp money pouring in on the over, so I am more than comfortable targeting it despite the large total. I’d be stunned if this finale was a low-scoring contest.

About the Author

John Feltman is a college football and college basketball writer for The Action Network. He is also a middle school ELA teacher, plaguing his students' minds with the world of sports. He often uses his free periods at school to write and handicap the week's games. Feltman is also a movie junkie, reader and poker player, but most of all, he is a Dallas Cowboys fan. He has not missed a televised game since he was 10 years old. 

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