Atlanta Braves in Prime Draft Lottery Position Over Final Weekend

The Atlanta Braves are out of the playoff picture, but find themselves in a prime lottery pick position. Entering Saturday, they have the fourth-best odds for the first-overall pick in the draft at 9.24%, according to Tankathon. 

Regardless of how the season plays out, the lowest odds the team can finish with are the seventh-best odds at 3.03%. 

Back-to-back losses after a 10-game winning streak have helped improve their odds a bit. It also shows that their season had been in such a poor spot before the winning streak that even after it, they’re still in position for a top-10 pick and a decent shot at the top spot. 

It also helps that certain teams are ineligible for the top pick. The Nationals, Rockies and Angels, who all have worse records than the Braves, are ineligible for a pick higher than 10th due to previous lotteries, market size and revenue-sharing rules. 

For the sake of attempting to project where they could land, Atlanta Braves on SI ran 30 simulations of the draft lottery, and the Braves averaged a 3.57 position on the draft board, so around where they currently stand. 

The lowest the Braves dropped was eighth, and they won the draft lottery four times. The number 30 was picked based on the minimum sample size required under the Central Limit Theorem. 

Following the 9-3 loss to the Pirates on Friday night, the Braves sit at 75-85 on the year. They have the chance to show promise for next season, all while setting themselves up to boost the farm system going forward. 

In a farm system ranking back in August, MLB.com ranked their system No. 28 out of 30. While they have a strong track record of developing talent, including having a Rookie of the Year candidate in catcher Drake Baldwin and having two top 100 prospects, they’re still considered behind the eight ball for the future. 

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