Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants prediction, pick, odds for Mon. 8/12

Braves vs. Giants Odds

Monday, August 12

9:45 p.m. ET

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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Braves vs. Giants Projected Starting Pitchers

Nicholas Martin’s Braves vs. Giants Preview

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Braves Teetering

After blowing an 8-2 lead in Sunday'’s game, the Braves lost and now hold a 61.7% chance of making the playoffs (FanGraphs). Recent losses to the Colorado Rockies have negatively impacted the Braves' standings and confidence.

There is plenty of time to right the ship, but the chances of a shocking playoff miss are far greater than anybody expected.

That makes this an excellent time for a start from Sale, who is still the NL Cy Young favorite, having pitched to a 2.75 ERA and accumulated 4.4 WAR this season. Sale was not at his best in his last start against the Milwaukee Brewers, as he allowed a season-high nine hits over just 4 2/3 innings.

Since the start of July, Sale's form has remained fairly consistent with the rest of his campaign. He pitched to a 2.68 ERA and 2.85 xFIP across 34 innings and six starts, striking out 33% of batters while allowing a .230 average against.

Sale is allowing a .208 SLG on non-fastballs this season, inducing a 43% miss rate.

While Sale still looks rock-solid and could quickly work seven innings here, Atlanta's bullpen does look concerning. Over the last month, Braves relievers have pitched to an ERA of 4.95, and the unit is a little taxed coming out of a three-game set at Coors Field.

The Braves rank 19th in wRC+ against southpaws since the All-Star break (105), posting the second-highest strikeout rate (32%). Across the season, they rank 11th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching (108).

San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: On A Tear

The Giants enter this matchup amid a 12-4 tear, putting them back into the playoff conversation.

They may not be an easy out if they get there either, given the way that Snell, Logan Webb, and Robbie Ray have pitched lately.

Since the start of July, Snell has tossed 39 innings with a 1.15 ERA, a 2.87 xFIP, a .137 xBA allowed, and an 18% hard-hit rate allowed.

The Giants offense has been impressive, especially against left-handed pitching, ranking fourth in wRC+ (119) and sixth in hard-hit rate (33%) against the side. They’ve posted a 136 wRC+ and .843 OPS against lefties since the All-Star break. Matt Chapman has been a key contributor, leading the team in home runs and RBIs, and his recent batting achievements have bolstered the Giants' offensive threats.

Braves vs. Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis

It feels crazy to think there is a case to fade the Cy Young favorite in a pick-em, but I see value on the Giants Moneyline.

Since the start of July, Snell has pitched to a superior ERA and features comparably strong underlying results to Sale. It's probably not right to argue that Snell offers an edge over Sale, but he doesn't need to for the Giants to have a good chance to take this critical matchup.

The Giants are a top-five offense against left-handed pitching and have remained red-hot in that split. Their bullpen has also been in better form than the Braves and should offer somewhat of an edge in the few innings the starters are out of this matchup.

At anything better than -115, I see value in backing Snell and the Giants to take this one.

Pick: San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-110, Bet365) | Play to Moneyline (-115)

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