Attractive free agent targets based on contract predictions

The Braves’ recent decision to decline the options on Tyler Kinley and Pierce Johnson leaves them with no choice but to be extremely active this offseason. They essentially have to overhaul their entire bullpen, find someone who can play shortstop, and add both a starting pitcher and another bat.

How they go about doing that will be intriguing, because this has never been a club under Alex Anthopoulos that gets involved in bidding wars for top-tier free agents. But this is starting to feel like a “something has to give” situation. Either the Braves start spending, or their days of being viewed as legitimate championship contenders might soon be in the rearview mirror.

Over at ESPN, Kiley McDaniel released contract predictions for the top 50 free agents. Here are the ones that stood out:

Ranger Suarez: 4 years, $92 million

The Phillies have a lot on their plate this offseason, headlined by their pursuit of Kyle Schwarber, who will be one of the most sought-after free agents after blasting 56 home runs. That could create an opening for another team to swoop in and snag Suarez, who has been a rock in Philadelphia’s rotation over the last four years, posting a 3.59 ERA in 104 starts. He’s also terrorized opponents in the postseason, recording a 1.48 ERA over 42.2 innings. Suarez should be high on the Braves’ wish list if they hope to land a starter.

Zac Gallen: 4 years, $76 million

This one caught my eye because it’s far off from other projections that have Gallen landing a two-year “prove-it” deal. He’s coming off a rough year, posting a 4.83 ERA across 33 starts, but it’s possible teams will look past that and focus on the 3.34 ERA he produced from 2020–2024.

Edwin Diaz: 4 years, $60 million

A projection that’s well below what most of the industry expects. Many believe Diaz will command a five-year deal approaching $100 million. He’s been arguably the most dominant closer in baseball over the last half-decade, but if his market somehow cools to something in this range, the Braves should be all over it, considering they currently have no established closer or reliable high-leverage arms.

Michael King: 3 years, $57 million

If these numbers are accurate, King would be an absolute steal. When healthy, he’s a legitimate frontline starter, posting a 3.10 ERA over 247 innings with the Padres the past two seasons.

Devin Williams: 3 years, $45 million

McDaniel clearly isn’t projecting a red-hot market for closers. Williams has been one of the best relievers in the game throughout his career, but his first season with the Yankees was a disaster, producing a 4.79 ERA. That performance will likely keep him from landing a massive deal, though his advanced metrics remained elite. It would be shocking if he doesn’t surpass $50 million this winter.

Merrill Kelly: 2 years, $35 million

If the Braves don’t want to spend big, signing a steady veteran like Kelly fits their M.O. perfectly. He’s not an ace, but he’s a durable, mid-rotation arm who won’t break the bank.

Brandon Woodruff: 2 years, $25 million

When healthy, Brandon Woodruff has been a legitimate frontline starter. The problem is health has been hard to come by. Since the start of the 2023 season, he’s made just 23 starts, but in those outings, he owns a 2.78 ERA. There’s significant injury risk, but there was with Chris Sale as well when the Braves rolled the dice on him a couple of years ago, and that turned out pretty well.

Robert Suarez: 2 years, $25 million

A back-to-back All-Star with 76 saves over the past two seasons, Suarez would be a steal at this price. McDaniel’s projection feels low compared to industry buzz, but if this is the market, Atlanta should pounce.

Brad Keller: 2 years, $22 million

Keller has long excelled at inducing grounders, but an uptick in velocity turned him into a strikeout machine this year. He posted a 27.2% K-rate, 2.07 ERA, and 0.962 WHIP in 2025 — easily making him one of the top high-leverage relievers on the market. At this price, he’d be a great fit for a Braves bullpen in desperate need of arms

—