Baltimore Orioles Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Baltimore Orioles Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 43 (includes players with options)

PENDING FREE AGENTS + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 5

OPTIONS: 3; Luis Robert Jr. (Club, $20M), Ryan Helsley (Player, $14M), Ryan Mountcastle (Club, $7.5M)

R5 MUST ADDS: 4; Michael Forrett, Levi Wells, Enrique Bradfield Jr., Braxton Bragg

Leody Taveras (5.031): $3,500,000 ($1.5M raise)

The Case: Taveras enters arbitration coming from a $2M Major League deal after posting 482 PA with 8 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB and an 80 wRC+.

Harold Ramírez (2023, $1.6M raise) is a comparison coming from a similar salary establishing a ceiling by posting similar bulk, though with 12 HR and 127 wRC+

José Siri (2026, $1.275M proj. raise) is a current class comp that Taveras should reieve a learger raise then. Siri has the power and quality advantage, but Taveras nearly doubles him in bulk PA, 482 to 251. Taveras falls just below Ramírez’s raise, resulting in a $1.5M raise and $3.5M total salary.

Tender Prediction: I am leaning on this being a DFA/non-tender. This was a great find and he posted a productive season, but he’s out of options and will now carry 5+ years of Major League service, which means if he gets removed from the roster and goes unclaimed, he can elect free agency while still being paid by the Orioles.

Ultimately, there are too many young prospects in that OF that need playing time paired with big-money contracts like O’Neill. Taveras should land a Major League deal as an XX(D) free agent somewhere else due to his positional versatility in the field and being a switch-hitter. Non-Tender.

Félix Bautista (5.000): $3,000,000

The Case: Bautista is a unique case because he never really entered the normal arbitration system, signing a 2-year/$2M extension at 2.000 service time after his 2023 injury before being pre-tendered at $2.25M following shoulder surgery that was expected to cost him most of the season. Bautista returned for just two games but enters the market with a career 67 SV, 14 HLD and 2.10 ERA.

Brusdar Graterol (2025, $2.8M total salary) provides an absolute total salary floor after accumulating roughly 450 days on the IL while entering arbitration with 11 SV, 39 HLD and 190.2 career IP. Bautista’s elite career production gives him the advantage despite the missed time, warranting at least a $3M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Bautista will be tendered a contract. This could end up in a hearing if his agent gets aggressive with the career argument, which I think he should. Tender.

Codi Heuer (4.059): $870,000 ($20k raise)

The Case: Heuer signed a minor league contract with an $850k Major League base and appeared in only eight MLB games while spending 149 days on option and finishing the season on option during a playoff race. There has not been a recent tendered Arb-3 reliever with that much option time, making this a minimum-type raise case. I project a $20k raise over his Major League rate, resulting in an $870k total salary.

Tender Prediction: Heuer will be a very strong candidate to be DFA/non-tender after using up his last option year and with the Orioles needing to add guys to protect from the R5 Draft. I think Heuer will be a very coveted minor league free agent, but I’m not sure I see him getting a guaranteed Major League deal. Because of that, I could see him back with Baltimore, just off the 40-man. Non-Tender.

Gunnar Henderson (4.036): $14,600,000 ($6.1M raise)

The Case: Henderson enters arbitration coming from an $8.5M Arb-1 salary after posting 702 PA with 24 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB and a 102 wRC+.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2022, $6.6M raise) provides the best comparison, coming from a similar $7.9M Arb-1 salary. Henderson falls below Guerrero’s raise after he posted a 132 wRC+ with 32 HR in a similar 706 PA. I project a $6.1M raise, resulting in a $14.6M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Henderson will be tendered a contract. This could end up in a hearing just due to the wild nature of the Arb-2 middle infield group of Abrams, Turang, and Neto from a very different starting salary. That whole market may move drastically on Exchange Day depending on who puts the first number on the board. Tender.

Albert Suarez (3.159): $1,050,000

The Case: Albert Suarez would technically be going through arbitration for the first time despite debuting in 2016. Suarez has been DFA’d seven times in his career, and if a case like this made it to arbitration, that would be the crux of the case rather than necessarily the statistics.

Anthony Banda (2024, $1.0M salary) was DFA’d six times and needed eight seasons to reach arbitration before being tendered in 2024. Suarez has meaningfully more career innings, including more starts, so I will give him an edge, but they should stay tight due to their shared lengthy DFA track record. I project Suarez at $1.05M.

Tender Prediction: DFA/non-tender. He seems to like Baltimore and will probably return to the Orioles on a minor league deal for what feels like the 72nd time. Non-Tender.

Jordan Westburg (3.098): $1,275,000

The Case: Westburg missed the entire 2026 season with injuries and enters the arbitration market with over 300 career days on the IL.

The best comparison is Gavin Lux (2023, $1.225M salary), since he also missed his entire platform year heading into arbitration. On a career level, Westburg has posted 1,027 PA, producing a 116 wRC+ with 38 HR and 127 RBI. Lux, without extrapolation of his 19-game 2020 season, entered arbitration totaling 1,003 PA with 18 HR, 105 RBI and a 99 wRC+.

Even if you extrapolate Lux’s 2020 season and give him the slight edge in bulk PA, Westburg still has run production and quality advantages which warrant him receiving a salary slightly above Lux at $1.275M.

Tender Prediction: Westburg will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

Colton Cowser (3.043): $2,600,000

The Case: Cowser broke onto the scene in 2024, finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year voting before a massive regression in 2025 followed by a small bounce back in 2026. He’s posted just one qualifying season, his rookie year, producing a career total of 1,390 PA with 53 HR, 153 RBI and a 102 wRC+, but a non-qualifying platform year that produced a 98 wRC+.

Dylan Carlson (2023, $2.35M salary), who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting before regressing the next two seasons, entered arbitration with nearly 1,500 PA and 34 HR. However, he did end his platform year entering arbitration on the IL, which makes him the floor for Cowser.

Two other players who get the bulk of their production from a lone qualifying season that wasn’t their platform year are Josh Lowe (2025, $2.6M salary) and Christian Walker (2021, $2.6M salary). Both follow similar career trajectories and are within 150 PA, 10 HR and 20 RBI of Cowser on a career level, with all three posting similar power and run production totals in their non-qualifying platform seasons. Cowser joins this group at $2.6M.

Tender Prediction: Cowser will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.