Baltimore Orioles Playoff Odds Plummeting With Brutal Start To Season

There were some serious question marks surrounding the Baltimore Orioles heading into the 2025 MLB regular season.

Easily the biggest was their starting rotation, with skepticism abound with how they decided to handle replacing their ace from 2024, Corbin Burnes.

A free agent, the team wasn’t overly aggressive in bringing him back. He ended up signing a six-year, $210 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, securing long-term security and being able to play close to home.

Losing Burnes was a huge blow, but there were other front end starters available this offseason the team could have pursued.

In free agency, Max Fried would have certainly fit the bill. A trade for Garrett Crochet, who was with the Chicago White Sox at the time, would have certainly sufficed as a suitable replacement for Burnes.

Neither player was acquired, but the Orioles are going to be seeing a lot of them.

Fried signed a historic contract with the New York Yankees, agreeing to the largest deal in baseball history for a left-handed pitcher. Their other American League East rivals, the Boston Red Sox, acquired Crochet for a strong package of prospects.

Either avenue was available for Baltimore to take, who has shown no real interest in parting ways with top positional player prospects to bring in more pitching despite having a logjam and overflow.

Instead, they opted for a quantity approach to filling the rotation.

Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Kyle Gibson were all signed in free agency. Grayson Rodriguez was being relied on to anchor the staff alongside Zach Eflin.

Thus far, the strategy has backfired.

Morton has been abysmal and Sugano, while solid, does not profile as a front-end starter. Gibson is still in the minor leagues being stretched out for Major League outings while Rodriguez and Eflin are both on the injured list.

Unfortunately for the Orioles, their offense has not produced at a level to help compensate for the lack of pitching impact.

Underwhelming performances from shortstop Gunnar Henderson, infielder Jordan Westburg, catcher Adley Rutschman, first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and outfielder Tyler O’Neill are just as much to blame for the team’s 10-14 start as the abysmal pitching.

That has them in the cellar of the AL East heading into play on April 26 and their playoff odds plummetting.

As shared by FanGraphs, they entered the season with a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Through April 23, those odds have dropped to 22.9%, with the -22.1% being the second most in the MLB, with only the Atlanta Braves dropping more.

The talent is there for Baltimore to turn things around. But they are blowing what should be a window of contention with young stars on cost-effective contracts.