Baseball-Reference projects the New York Yankees to have one of the worst records in baseball

Long one of baseball’s most consistent playoff teams, the New York Yankees missed the postseason in 2023 for the first time in six years after going 82-80.

It was the franchise’s worst season since 1992, when they went 76-86 in Buck Showalter’s first season in the dugout, and one overshadowed, as many expected, by Aaron Judge. Fresh off signing a stunning nine-year, $360-million contract, the hope was that one of the game’s biggest names was going to help lead the Bronx Bombers back to the promised land with hopes of another big season off his record-setting 62 home runs in 2022.

Instead, a torn ligament in his toe forced him to miss a third of the season — one that will now require “constant maintenance” — and the rest of the Yanks couldn’t muster up what was needed in a highly competitive AL East. This offseason saw them bring forth a mitigation plan, of sorts, picking up superstar slugger Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres in a deal that saw them trade away pitcher Michael King among some of their top prospects, as well as Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox in another deal.

Couple those with the signing of Marcus Stroman to help bolster the rotation amid minimal free agent losses, and the Yankees were optimistic about a big 2024 season, set to be skipper Aaron Boone’s seventh with the club.

But according to Baseball-Reference’s season-long projections, the Yankees are instead slated to have one of the worst seasons in franchise history, leaving them last in the AL East. Their numbers have the Pinstripes, on average, finishing the season with a 72-91 record, poor enough for a .441 win-loss percentage that would be the seventh worst in the franchise’s historic 122 years in Major League Baseball, and the seventh worst in the bigs this season. It gives them a 2.7 percent chance of making the American League playoffs, far and away the worst among AL East teams.

In a best-case scenario, which Baseball-Reference gives a 90 percent confidence rating on, they would mimic last year’s measly record, which left them on the outside looking in.