Battered Brewers Bullpen To Be Tested Down the Stretch

The most significant injury came last week, when it was announced that All-Star closer Trevor Megill was headed to the 15-day IL with a flexor strain. This came after back-to-back rough outings in a weekend series against the San Francisco Giants, suggesting that clearly something wasn’t right.

Megill, who boasts a 2.54 ERA to go with the second-most saves in the NL (30), is in the middle of a career year and is the clear anchor of the bullpen. He is set to have his first bullpen session on Thursday, and the club is hopeful that he can return before the postseason.

It’s encouraging to see that he’s progressing nicely in the early stages of his return. Still, it’s yet to be seen how he recovers as his rehab process ramps up and how effective he will be when he eventually returns from the IL.

Filling his shoes will not be an easy task, especially after the ball club lost yet another important reliever just days after Megill hit the shelf.

On Wednesday evening, the Brewers announced that trade deadline acquisition Shelby Miller was headed to the 60-day IL with a right UCL sprain. The injury may require Tommy John surgery and will end his 2025 campaign.

Miller was carrying a 1.29 ERA in his previous seven outings leading up to Monday’s appearance in which he left the game early after struggling, and he was really settling in as a key member of the back of this bullpen.

With Grant Anderson (ankle tendinitis) and DL Hall (oblique strain) rehabbing from their own injuries as well, it’s all hands on deck in this Brewers bullpen to get this thing to the finish line.

Fortunately, the Brewers — as is usually the case with this organization — have a deep group of relievers to pick up the slack. While everybody in the bullpen will have added pressure to perform, two of Milwaukee’s most valuable relivers will need to elevate their play to an even higher level in the coming weeks to keep this ball club on track.

Abner Uribe Has ‘Future Closer’ Written All Over Him

While skipper Pat Murphy will not formally name a closer in Megill’s absence, Abner Uribe will likely receive the lion’s share of opportunities until Megill makes his return.

Uribe, 25, has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball this season. His 1.87 ERA is tied for the sixth-best mark in MLB and tied for fourth-best in the National League among qualified relievers.

Not only have the results been stellar, but he’s been used nearly as much as any reliever in the sport. He’s tied for the third-most appearances in MLB with 67, and he leads MLB with 36 holds, which is seven more than the next-closest player.

From a pure talent perspective, Uribe is up there with the best of them. Go ahead and turn on an Uribe outing — it won’t take to notice that he’s certainly got the stuff to be an exceptional reliever at this level.

He’s a sinker-slider pitcher, and both pitches are diabolical. His sinker, which he throws just over half the time, sits nearly 99 mph and is elite when it comes to generating ground balls. Like most pitchers with a top-notch sinker, Uribe throws his fastball with the purpose of generating contract because of how difficult it is for hitters to do any damage with it.

Uribe’s sinker generates 14.1 inches of arm-side movement, and that is paired with plenty of vertical drop as well (6.1 inches of IVB). Simply put, it’s a bowling ball hurling at the plate at nearly 100 mph. The pitch has a Run Value of +8, which is up there for one of the more valuable sinkers in baseball.

Uribe’s sinker has an average launch angle against of -2 degrees, meaning that even though it has a hard-hit rate of 44.1%, it’s hit on the ground more often than not and plays right into the hands of Milwaukee’s premier defense.

Uribe is in the top-10 percent of MLB in ground-ball rate (53.5%), which is a direct result of his sinker’s success this season.

His slider is where things get unfair for hitters, though. Uribe’s slider, which has over a 10 mph separation in velocity from his sinker at 87.4 mph, is his wipeout pitch. If he’s locating the pitch where he wants, hitters stand almost no chance in the box.

Take a look at FanGraphs’ Stuff+ leaderboard, which quantifies the nastiness of a pitch based on its physical characteristics, and Uribe is sixth in all of MLB (min. 60 IP) in overall Stuff+ at 118. His slider leads the way with a Stuff+ of 129, which is the 10th-best mark in MLB for the pitch type.

Uribe’s sliders generates some of the most horizontal movement in the game at 10.6 inches of glove-side movement. It generates a whiff nearly half of the time (47.2%), and opponents are batting just .140 against his slider on the year with a .215 slugging percentage.

When hitters are geared up for his turbo sinker, it’s nearly impossible to time up his slider if he’s landing it where he wants. It generates a hard-hit rate of just 18.4% on top of its wicked whiff numbers, and the two pitches compliment each other perfectly.

Uribe might not have the prolific strikeout numbers as some of the other elite relievers in the game, but he’s still in the 90th percentile in strikeout percentage (30.1%) and is punching out over 10 hitters per nine innings.

That’s good enough when he induces weak contact and ground balls at the rate that he does, and his ability to get outs in so many different ways is what makes him such a valuable piece of the Brewers’ bullpen.

Control is everything for Uribe, which was the story as he was coming up as a prospect and has been his one shortcoming throughout his young major-league career. When he’s commanding his pitches, he’s as unhittable as any reliever in baseball. But it’s when he loses the strike zone where things can spiral on him.

Uribe has found a home in the eighth inning this season, but he’ll now be tasked with closing out games more often down the stretch. How that role shift will impact his production is yet to be seen, but with the way he’s thrown with conviction this season, he appears plenty capable of stepping up to the challenge.

The Milwaukee Brewers’ Unsung MVP: Aaron Ashby

As valuable as Uribe has been at the tail end of the bullpen, Aaron Ashby has been equally as valuable in his role and has been an integral piece to the Brewers’ success this season.

Ashby, who owns a 2.25 ERA across 52 innings, has often found himself in a long-relief role this season with the occasional high-leverage appearance. That role has been so important for this team that has struggled with getting length from their starters at times.

Not only has he held down innings to close games and preserve the bullpen, but he’s posting incredible numbers in the process.

Ashby, who also carries a 2.95 FIP and 2.92 SIERA on the year, is in the 98th percentile of ground-ball rate at a whopping 61.9% thanks to his sinker that also sits in the upper 90s and has an average launch angle of -1 degrees.

His sinker, which he throws just over half the time, is the tone setter for the rest of his arsenal. It’s another high-movement, high-velocity sinker where, if he is hitting his spot, it makes his devastating curveball that much more effective.

Ashby’s curve is his calling card. It’s a pitch that generates some of the most vertical drop of any curveball in baseball. Not to mention the pitch also sits 82 mph and has above-average glove-side movement.

Generating a whiff rate of nearly 43%, opponents are hitting just .154 against it this season while slugging a measly .205. When the pitch is on, it’s one of the most aesthetically pleasing pitches to watch in baseball.

Ashby is one of those arms where you have to see him in action to appreciate how special he can be. Like Uribe, control is the main thing standing in his way from emerging as a top reliever in the sport.

Beyond issuing free passes far too often (9.1% BB%, 32nd percentile), he loses too many batters with non-competitive misses at times. Landing his curve for a strike is huge, but if he is commanding his sinker, then that’s where it opens the door for much more chase and whiff on the rest of his arsenal.

As mentioned, the long-relief role has suited him well this season, but he may find himself now in more high-leverage situations the rest of the way with how the bullpen roles have shifted in light of Megill’s injury.

When the bullpen is rested and at full strength, he can continue to be utilized the way that he has. But he’s got the stuff to perform in tight or late-game situations as well, which was already on display in the Brewers’ first two games against the Philadelphia Phillies this week.

Ashby gets my vote for being the Brew Crew’s unsung MVP this season, and his role in the ‘pen just got even more important. Whether he is soaking up innings in the middle of the game or bridging the gap to Uribe or Koenig in the ninth, he’s going to be a one of the most important arms for Milwaukee the rest of the way.

Final Thoughts

All in all, it’s been another strong year for Milwaukee’s bullpen. They’ve been leaned upon as much as any (546.0 IP, the fourth-most in the sport) and they’re 10th in MLB in ERA. In fact, they have seemingly improved as the year goes on, posting the sixth-best ERA in baseball since the All-Star break.

But this bullpen is going to once again be key for this team to make a postseason run, and it’s going to be really interesting to see how this pitching staff handles these bumps in the road in the final weeks of the regular season.

In terms of actually replacing Megill’s closer role, the Brewers are well-equipped to do so with one of the premier eighth-inning arms in baseball in Abner Uribe. Likewise, just as we saw on Wednesday night, Jared Koenig may find himself in closer situations when some heavy-hitting lefties are due up to close out the game. So from that standpoint, the Brewers should be fine.

But it’s bridging the gap between the starters and the seventh or eighth inning that will be something to watch in the coming weeks.

Losing Shelby Miller takes away one of their key high-leverage arms. Of course, losing Megill shifts everybody’s role up an inning as well. So now instead of the “A” bullpen stretching all the way to the fifth inning, perhaps, the margin for error gets much, much smaller once the starters exit.

However, if there was a team to fight through bullpen injuries, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers — just look at how they covered the loss of Devin Williams a season ago when he missed the first few months of the regular season.

This team is a bullpen factory that doesn’t seem to miss a beat no matter what adversity they face, and they will be tested to an even greater degree the rest of the way.