Beginner Saves Strategy for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Profile 1: Identifying Closers With Good Teams 

These are closers whose roles are locked in who possess dominant stuff. We look closely at two other factors as well:

• Manager Style: Many managers have a style where they employ the closer in the best “high leverage” situation, the spots where the best hitters on the opponent team are coming up with the game on the line.  Identify those situations and handle with care.
• Contracts: Players who have locked in multi-year deals as the team’s closer are way more likely to keep that job.

Profile 2: Next In Line Behind a Shaky Closer - Using Depth Charts

Every bullpen has an ever changing depth chart under the closer.  We usually rate them in the following categories:

• Closer: the player who is named by the manager as the closer.
• Setup: the player who the manager brings into the game in the 8th inning
• Next in line: the player who is ready to take either of the above roles
• Best stuff of the others: the player in the bullpen who has the best stuff and is a future closer.

Many times setup players can become closers when the closer is traded near the trade deadline or sooner to help a team that is contending.  All players in the bullpen can add security to the ratio categories and often provide almost as many strike outs as your 5th or 6th starter on your roster.  Sometimes it is smart to go after these players.

With the way pitchers are used, some of the bullpen pitchers can also add to your wins total.

Profile 3: Late-Round Speculators

This is the tier where wins are made. You don’t need them all to hit as you can add and drop them easily. Consider targeting:

• High Velocity: Hard throwing pitchers are better in the late innings
• Multiple high velo pitches: A slider or cutter to go with the 2-seam and 4 seam fastballs.
• Swinging strike percentage (SwK): Getting batters to swing and miss in that innings correlates to more strikeouts and more success
• First-pitch strike percentage (FpK): Late innings pitchers who throw strikes have more success.  Simple really.
• Strikeout per 9 innings (k/9): The ability to strikeout more than one hitter per inning is important when coming in late in games with the game on the line.

Then, it is a matter of opportunity.  Where is that pitcher on the depth chart and how shaky is the player who is currently in the role.  The higher up the list of roles in the last section the better.  A rumored “by committee” closer can be very valuable in the late rounds.

Step 4: Punting Saves is Not a Strategy

Punting saves is not recommended but it can happen by accident.  If the eight solid closers go in a “closer” run during your draft and you miss on them, you need to PIVOT…PIVOT…PIVOT.

Accidental punting of saves can work if:

• You stack power, speed, AND starting pitching
• You speculate well on setup men behind shaky closers and high skills relief pitchers and be self-compassionate if you miss and make moves in season to get the right guys
• You trade mid-season to solve the low saves as they can be easy to come by if someone else accidentally has a windfall of them.
• You have others who are punting saves and so you don’t finish last 

Most managers who “accidentally punt” saves do so because they waited too long and were forced into bad players who are closers. 

Step 5: Expect to Add Saves Through Pickups

Let’s look at some numbers that might have us understand how important it is to be active and how many saves are available to pickup during the season:

• There were 1201 saves recorded last year by all teams
• The Chicago White Sox had only 25 and Padres had 49
• Only three teams had less than 35 saves so a majority of the teams were between 35 and 45 saves
• 214 different players got one save last season
• 32 players had more than 10 saves
• 21 players had more than 20 saves
• 8 had more than 30 saves
• Two players had more than 40 saves - Robert Suarez, Carlos Estevez (“Charlie Sheen”)

Here are the areas that you look at in the news:

• Injury: Injuries to the closer will open up opportunity
• Talent: Closer is bad and manager makes a change
• Opportunity: Setup man is so good that it forces a slow change.  Get him EARLY

Step 6: Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Overpaying for two elite closers: You budget will not work for hitters and starting pitchers
• Ignoring ratios: Some closers might have a high WHIP or ERA.  Be careful
• Draft closers on bad teams: Closers on bad teams get traded to ge setup men on good teams
• Draft skills not roles: Remember talent is the most important thing for relief pitchers to eventually get the role.

Saves are a category of talent and opportunity. Don’t draft as if jobs never change. They always do.

Summary 

The fantasy baseball landscape rewards managers who understand talent and the opportunity that is likely to come. Drafting for saves is about identifying a list of the solid closers and getting one. Then, cherry picking anyone who falls through the cracks and targeting talent with potential opportunity late in your draft or with a small amount of your budget.