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Bleacher Report predicts Drue Hackenberg is Atlanta's breakout prospect of 2024

Originally posted on Atlanta Braves on SI
By Lindsay Crosby  |  Last updated Jan 2, 2024 12:41 PM ET

It's been an interesting few years for Atlanta Braves pitching prospect Drue Hackenberg. 

The righthander burst onto the scene as a freshman at Virginia Tech in 2022, dominating ACC competition to the tune of a 10-2 record and 3.30 ERA. But 2023 wasn't as fruitful, with the groundball artist (>55% in college) struggling as injuries decimated the Hokies defense, ending up with a 5.80 ERA. 

Despite the struggles, Atlanta drafted the sophomore Hackenberg in the 2nd round last summer, going overslot to add him to the class. 

And some predictions think that was a smart move by the Braves. 

Bleacher Report, offering their "breakout prospect" predictions for 2024, singled out Hackenberg as the prospect in Atlanta's system most poised to climb up the rankings. 

Author Joel Reuter had this to say about Hackenberg:

Hackenberg was one of the best freshman pitchers in the country in 2022 when he finished 10-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 92.2 innings for a Virginia Tech team that reached the Super Regionals. He struggled to a 5.80 ERA with 113 hits allowed in 85.1 innings as a draft-eligible sophomore, but the Braves liked his upside enough to take him in the second round. His sinker-slider, pitch-to-contact approach means a few minor tweaks could get him back on track quickly.

The tweaks Reuter refers to are mostly to the consistency of the slider's shape and establishing the changeup. Hackenberg dominated his pro debut, pitching 5.2 innings for Single-A Augusta (across two starts) with three hits and no earned runs, walking two and striking out twelve. 

But Hackenberg's final start of the year, at AA Mississippi in the season's final week, wasn't nearly as fruitful: only two-thirds of an inning with one run allowed on no hits and four walks, with one strikeout. 

As far as what Hackenberg needs to do to break out in 2023, some of it's related to which affiliate he gets assigned to for 2024: He used three different baseballs last season, between the college baseball, the lower-minors baseball, and the official MLB ball used at AA and higher. If he's assigned to AA and has an opportunity to acclimate to that specific baseball, it'll be easier for him to keep the consistency of his pitches. 

But those pitches, primarily his slider, need to sharpen up a bit, as well. It's mostly a slider, but can sometime morph into more of a slurvy, curveball-looking pitch, resulting in the location varying a bit. It did get better across his two seasons at inducing swing and miss, with his strikeout rate between seasons jumping from 8.4 K/9 in 2022 to 10.4 K/9 in 2023. 

Additionally, Hackenberg doesn't often use his changeup, reserving it mostly for lefthanders. Typically sitting in the upper-80s, if he can get a bit more velocity separation on it from the 92-93 mph fastball (a good target is 10 mph difference between the two) and create a bit more drop, it could elevate the entire arsenal into a true four-pitch mix that can avoid barrels and rack up groundball outs in a hurry. 

And for as much as we talk about Atlanta preferring good athletes when they draft a pitcher, Hackenberg's definitely got the bloodlines to qualify. His brother Adam is a catching prospect for the Chicago White Sox (2021 round 18), with brother Brandon being a first round pick by Major League Soccer in 2021 and the oldest sibling, Christian, being a 2nd round pick as a quarterback by the New York Jets in 2016.

With a good season in 2024, he could quickly establish himself as a workhorse rotation option that can eat innings for the Braves - he pitched more than 92 innings in 2022, and 91.2 last season between college and the minors. 

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This article first appeared on Atlanta Braves on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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