Blue Jays 40-man Roster Review: Alek Manoah eyes an August return from Tommy John surgery

Just two years ago, Alek Manoah was one of the best starting pitchers in the league.

This is Blue Jays Nation’s annual 40-man Roster Review, where we look at the players on the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster. We’ll look at how the player performed in 2024, his season projections for the 2025 season, and any storylines heading into this coming season. In this article, we’ll look at Alek Manoah.

The Toronto Blue Jays selected Alex Manoah 11th overall in the 2019 draft. In parts of two seasons of minor league action, he pitched just 35 innings before receiving a call-up to the Blue Jays in 2021. That season, he finished with a 3.22 ERA and a 3.80 FIP in 111.2 innings pitched, with a 27.7 K% and an 8.7 BB% to finish eighth in American League Rookie of the Year voting.

Manoah’s magnum opus of his career, at least so far, was in 2022, where he finished with a 2.24 ERA and a 3.35 FIP in 196.2, with a 22.9 K% and a 6.5 BB% to finish third in American League Cy Young voting.

And then 2023 happened, as Manoah finished with a 5.87 ERA and a 6.01 FIP in 87.1 innings pitched, with a 19 K% and a 14.2 BB%. The right-handed pitcher was optioned twice and was even hit around in his only Florida Complex League start, giving up 11 earned runs in 2.2 innings pitched.

Manoah started the 2024 season on the Injured List, but pitched well upon returning, as he posted a 3.70 ERA and a 5.18 FIP in 24.1 innings pitched with a 25.2 K% and a 7.8 BB%. The 2024 season included back-to-back starts where Manoah pitched seven innings without giving up an earned run, a very encouraging sign. Unfortunately, his final start on May 31 ended with him leaving due to injury, later receiving Tommy John surgery.

That surgery came in mid-June and according to Manoah himself, he’s targeting an August return to the big leagues. Fangraphs’ Steamer projects he’ll have a 4.43 ERA and a 4.46 FIP in 18 innings pitched, while OOPSY has him posting a 4.19 ERA and a 4.42 FIP in 19 innings pitched. Of the three projection models, ATC has him pitching four outings for 24 innings pitched, with a 4.45 ERA and a 4.65 FIP. In all three of the models, he has a K% of around 21.5% and a BB% of around 9%.

There’s a clear storyline surrounding Manoah when he returns. Can he return to the form he had in 2022 that he showed in his limited action in 2024, or will his 2025 season be similar to his 2023? If the answer is the former, the Jays will get a front-line rotation starter, sort of like a trade deadline acquisition. Whether that will be a meaningful addition is yet to be seen.