Blue Jays: Examining the game plan for Max Scherzer in Game 4 of the ALCS

Scherzer needs a successful outing to set up the relievers

There’s no doubt that Scherzer likely won’t go too far into the ballgame; this may be a master plan for manager John Schneider.

The right-handed starter may be kept close to the 70 pitch area depending on how he is dealing, so getting three innings from him would be the minimum, while getting anything more would be a bonus (especially given his first-inning struggles). Game 4 in this series was set up to be more of a bullpen day. With a proven starter ready to go, Scherzer could eat a minimum of three to five innings if all goes well before handing things off. 

This could make room for Chris Bassitt, who can see an inning or two, as well as the rest of the bullpen. This may also ensure that each previous starter gets the rest they need to bounce back for their next start or in an emergency relief appearance. 

Pitch sequencing, location, and execution will be key in a clean outing

Scherzer has been in the league for a while; therefore, his repertoire has been studied, and the intelligence is public knowledge. Hiding his junk options may not be needed in three innings of work; in fact, he’ll need his junk.

Scherzer’s fastball has been up to an average of 93.6 mph, which is not a blow-away heater, and is edible in the zone for most hitters. His best-rated put-away pitch is his slider, with a 23.1% put-away rate. His slider has the lowest batting average against this season, sitting at .240. The slider curveball, and changeup will be his bread and butter; his command needs to be on, especially with the fastball. 

For Scherzer to survive, his pitches need to work, and they need to be executed so he avoids the home runs that have dogged him this season. He will get the added benefit of pitching in a pitcher-friendly park this time around, but ground-outs will be his best friends, hoping to keep his pitch-count low, and allowing his defence to assist. 

Approach to Mariners’ bats will be pertinent 

At this point, we understand that the Mariners can shoot the ball all over the field and into the stands. Cal Raleigh is an obvious example of a guy that you work around, even if it’s an unintentional ball four (within the given circumstances). The right-on-left matchup with Raleigh and Scherzer could be dangerous. There is no need to be fancy with Raleigh, nor test the first pitch down the pipe fastball. He needs to stay out of the wheelhouse of the Mariners’ backstop, working him low and in, or low and away; cuffing his hands may be the best course of action. 

The other problematic bat in the Mariners lineup is Julio Rodriguez. He usually hits third in the order and looks for early fastballs. There’s no need to state the obvious here, but staying away from middle-middle, or middle-in above the knees, is wise. Rodriguez has quick hands and can easily make the game sway in the Mariners’ favour. Jorge Polanco is another stick that he needs to work below the knees, staying out of the wheelhouse. Polanco is clutch on both sides of the plate, and he will burn you with runners on base. Polanco can work up the middle, especially in the hole near shortstop, and he can create launch. 

Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena are similar in approach as well; both batters are aggressive and will barrel it up hard on a line or with some air over the wall. Scherzer also wants to be mindful of these two gentlemen on base; controlling the running game early will be necessary, should base runners exist, especially with Naylor and Arozarena.