The Blue Jays have made another contract offer to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., reports Buster Olney of ESPN. No specifics of the offer have been publicly reported but Olney says a gap remains between the two sides.
The will-they-won’t-they between the Jays and Guerrero has been playing out for years now, but with a special focus on the drama this winter. Guerrero is now slated for free agency after the 2025 season, which begins Thursday for the Jays. It’s common for players to set Opening Day as a deadline in contract talks, to avoid distractions during the season. Guerrero initially went a step further and set a deadline of Feb. 18, the opening of spring training.
That day came and went without a deal getting done, though Guerrero subsequently said he would keep the door open if the Jays wanted to come back to the table. Reportedly, Guerrero’s asking price was a deal of at least 14 years and worth $500M. The Jays reportedly did make him an offer in February with a sticker price of $500M, but with deferrals that would knock the net present value down to the $400-450M range. Guerrero is said to be open to deferrals generally but would still like the NPV to get to that $500M line.
In a sense, that $50-100M gap is not large. For a deal of that length, that’s about $3.5M to $7M annually. In an annual baseball budget, that’s what clubs spend on a veteran reliever or a backup catcher. That would appear to be a bridgeable gap. That’s perhaps especially true when looking at the broader picture. Guerrero has been the face of the franchise for many years now. The Jays have tried to sign other marquee players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki but without success.
The regime of president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins has seemingly left a large segment of the fanbase discontent. There has been a lot of regular season success in recent years but the Jays have been swept in all of their most recent playoff appearances. Many things went wrong in 2024, which exacerbated the frustration.
Letting Guerrero walk for a relatively small financial gap would likely be unwelcome from a public relations perspective, whereas getting a deal done on Opening Day could theoretically provide a nice boost to fan morale.
The front office seems to view the situation as one that can be resolved. Shapiro recently expressed confidence that a deal would get done, either an extension or later in free agency. That was an unusual bit of candor, since front office types usually duck questions about ongoing negotiations. Atkins made somewhat similar comments Wednesday, per Hazel Mae of Sportsnet and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com.
Presumably, this new offer from the Jays has moved closer to Guerrero’s asking price. Though as mentioned, no details have been publicly reported. A deal in this range would be fairly unprecedented, for the Jays or any other club.
As of a few months ago, no player had received a contract with an NPV at $500M or higher. At the start of the 2024-25 offseason, the largest deal on record was Ohtani’s ten-year, $700M pact with the Dodgers. Thanks to the heavy deferrals in that deal, Major League Baseball calculated the AAV as $46.06M with the MLBPA at $43.78M, meaning the NPV on the deal was roughly $437-460M. Even those reduced numbers were all records, in terms of largest guarantee and largest AAV ever.
Each of those numbers is now a distant second, thanks to Soto’s deal. He got $765M over 15 years with no deferrals, meaning his net present value shattered Ohtani’s. The AAV on that is $51M, which also went notably beyond Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted AAV.
A hypothetical deal worth $500M over 14 years would be a $35.7M AAV. That would be well below Soto and Ohtani but still put Guerrero in the top 15 of all contracts by AAV, ahead of players like Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts. The total guarantee would be second all-time, when adjusting Ohtani’s down.
Guerrero hasn’t been quite as elite as Ohtani or Soto but still has a strong track record for a player his age. Many top prospects don’t reach the majors until their mid-20s but Guerrero just turned 26 earlier this month, which is a huge part of his earning power. He already has 819 games under his belt with 160 home runs, a .288/.363/.500 batting line and 137 wRC+. He was even better than that in both 2021 and 2024. Though he dipped a bit in the two seasons in between, he hit .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ last year. He’s not an especially strong defender at first but he has accomplished a lot with the bat already. If he and the Jays can’t work out a new deal, he will be one of the top free agents of next year’s class.
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Lucas Giolito is tired of hearing from angry sports bettors, and the Boston Red Sox pitcher says he recently spoke with MLB commissioner Rob Manfred about his concerns. During an episode of Rob Bradford's "Baseball Isn't Boring" podcast that was released on Monday, Giolito spoke about what he described as a growing problem with angry gamblers issuing threats to players. The right-hander said he has received countless messages from fans who placed wagers on him and lost, even when he pitches well. "I'm getting messages after every game," Giolito said, via Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek. "Even games where I pitched well, where they're mad at me because I hit the strikeout over instead of being under; prop bets, all these crazy things. People put hundreds of dollars on it. They don't have a lot of money but they're gambling it anyway because it's a disease. They freak out." Giolito added that there is only so much players can do in terms of blocking and reporting people on social media. He said his girlfriend has even received "nasty" messages from fans and that he asked Manfred what would need to happen for MLB to take serious action. "You can go private on social media. You can block accounts. It only goes so far. One thing I said to Rob was, 'Is it gonna take a player getting assaulted in front of their apartment building by some disgruntled that lost a bet for real action to be taken?'" Giolito said. As sports betting has been legalized across more states, the number of fans wagering has rapidly grown. Giolito alluded to prop bets such as over/unders on strikeouts, which are popular among casual gamblers. Giolito certainly is not the first professional athlete to raise concerns about disgruntled bettors. Scottie Scheffler recently revealed a change he had to make because of the actions of those who placed bets on him. As for what Manfred, MLB or any other sports organization can do about it, that remains to be seen.
Matthew Stafford's latest injury raises concerns about the depth of the Los Angeles Rams' quarterback room. Stafford suffered a back injury last season, and it's bothering him again at training camp. Rams head coach Sean McVay said the medical concern will force the QB to miss five practices, but it's not season-ending. "He's been throwing, feeling good. It's not necessarily anything that's new. Something that he's dealt with before," the coach told the media. "Going into year 17, we were going to take a modified approach with him, kind of similar to what we did in the offseason program. And so we'll allow him to kind of just work off to the side, on his own, getting himself feeling as good as possible." Stafford's durability has already been waning. The 37-year-old QB missed eight games because of a spine injury and concussion during the 2022 season. The following season, he missed one game because of a right thumb injury. The Rams have a capable backup QB, Jimmy Garoppolo. He has a 43-21 starting record in the regular season in 11 years with the San Francisco 49ers, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots and Rams. Garoppolo, however, is injury-prone. He has battled foot, ankle, knee and shoulder issues over the course of his career. Rams QB Stetson Bennett — a fourth-rounder in the 2023 NFL Draft — has yet to throw a pass in a regular-season game. Plenty of solid free-agent QBs are still available, including one-time Pro Bowler Carson Wentz. He would be a more trustworthy option than Bennett and already knows the Rams' system. The 2016 first-rounder played for the team during the 2023 season. The Rams hope to win their third Super Bowl after consecutive playoff appearances. Injuries at the most important position could derail their aspirations. McVay doesn't seem too concerned about Stafford's health, but L.A. should still consider adding another QB as a precaution.
The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to explore ways to upgrade the roster following Mitch Marner's departure in free agency. The Leafs front office has been trying to fill in the gaps along the roster, and they have been searching on the trade front. One name that has been heavily connected to the Maple Leafs in recent weeks is Calgary Flames star Nazem Kadri. Kadri could replace Marner very well in the lineup, but it seems that a deal could be complicated to complete. According to NHL insider Nick Kypreos of SportsNet, Toronto has tried to land Kadri multiple times this summer, only to be rebuffed each time. Kypreos believes that a deal involving Kadri returning to the Maple Leafs could be unlikely at this point in the summer. Last season, Kadri posted 35 goals and 32 assists for the Flames. His presence has been steady on the ice for years, and Calgary could probably get a lot on the trade market for him. The Maple Leafs will likely continue to explore ways to pry Kadri from the Flames. But Calgary likely won't trade him unless it receives an offer that it deems too good to be true. But Kadri is the leader of this team, and he was the best player for them last season. Toronto doesn't have a lot of tradable assets to work with, which could be what is holding things up between the two sides. The veteran could give Toronto a nice boost, but unless the Maple Leafs up the offer, he isn't returning to town.
There is an expectation that Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is going to take a big leap forward in Year 2 of his career. He is not only looking for a big step forward, he is looking to re-write the Bears' franchise record books. Williams said on Tuesday that one of his goals for this season is to become the first 4,000-yard passer in Bears history, while also completing more than 70% of his passes. “Obviously I have self goals, and that’s being the first 4,000-yard passer in Bears history.” Williams said. “That’s a goal of mine. Seventy percent completion helps the team, keeps us on the field, puts us in better positions, and then other than that just trying to go down and score the most points that we can with each drive that we have. That’s kinda my self goal and obviously, other than that, you gotta go win. That’s success for me, that’s success for the team, and that’s all we wish for and all I wish for.” Williams arrived in Chicago with huge expectations prior to the 2024 season after being selected with the No. 1 overall pick. The hope was always that he could finally give the team a franchise quarterback that could put it on a Super Bowl contending level. His rookie season had some ups and downs, but it was easy to see the talent and potential. It was also easy to dream on him if you are a Bears fans given some of the plays he made. He ultimately threw for 3,541 yards, completed 62.5% of his passes and threw 20 touchdown passes to only five interceptions. He is not only entering Year 2 with a full season of NFL play under his belt, the Bears have also surrounded him with playmakers at every position and given him a young, innovative head coach in Ben Johnson. Johnson was one of the masterminds behind the Detroit Lions' offense, and there is an expectation that he can do the same thing with the Bears given the young quarterback and talent around him. The Bears have never had a 4,000-yard passer in franchise history, and Williams certainly seems to have a strong chance of achieving it. If not this season, then certainly at some point in his career. The single-season franchise record is 3,838 yards set by Erik Kramer during the 1995 season. If Williams can get 4,000 yards and complete of 70% of his passes — as he wants to do — there is a good chance the Bears offense would be one of the best in football. It would also probably mean they win way more than the five games they did during the 2024 season.