Blue Jays Offseason Sets Them Up For a Winning Season

The Toronto Blue Jays sure have had an adventurous offseason to say the least.  A couple of fan favorites in Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were traded away and a few new faces were brought in.  While each individual transaction can be analyzed and debated, the overall product is ultimately what matters.  This article will focus on the final product heading into spring training and if this is a group that can compete for a World Series championship in 2023 and beyond.

The Jays ended last year with 92 regular season wins and unfortunately didn’t add any more in the playoffs.  They had a world class offense, solid starting rotation, and good but not spectacular bullpen.  The outfield defense was a question mark (to be polite) as was Bo Bichette‘s defense at shortstop.  Defense at the bases was very good, as was catcher.  The front office’s stated goals were to add versatility to the offense (largely in the way of left handedness), add swing and miss to the bullpen, replace the departing Ross Stripling and above all else improve run prevention (ie. outfield defense).

While it took some time and much fan anxiety to see the final product, the front office basically addressed every issue and have put together a more complete team, including much needed improved organizational depth.   To be fair, some people look at a baseball team as a collection of individual players and compare outgoing players and their stats to the incoming player and their stats.  I do not look at a baseball team this way.  I look at a baseball team more like a birthday cake or fine sports car.  Do all the ingredients / parts combine to result in a beautiful final product.   I know this is kind of hokey, but I think it is a good analogy.

Regarding the offence, not focusing on statistics, the Jays lost two middle of the order right handed bats, and replaced them with two middle of the order left handed bats in Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt.  They also added a complimentary lefthanded bat in Kevin Keirmaier.  Especially when you factor in the speed element of Varsho and Keirmaier and the more balance the three new lefthanders bring to the lineup, the Jays offence should be as good or better than last year.  This is before one considers the likely improvement to come from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

As far as the defense goes, the Jays are a totally different team.  While one would expect some continued improvement from the hardworking and dedicated Bo Bichette, the real difference is in the outfield where all three positions are significantly upgraded.  In right field the Jays now have former center fielder George Springer taking over for the sometimes lackadaisical efforts of Teoscar Hernandez.  In center field one of the best defensive center fielders of this generation in Kevin Keirmaier replaces Springer.  And in left field,  the extraordinary defensive skills of Daulton Varsho replaces the defensively challenged Gurriel Jr.  Not only will this outfield trio prevent runs for this team, but just as importantly, by making all the plays, they will save pitches for the starting pitchers, allowing them to go deeper into games, thus avoiding some middle relief usage which is usually by definition the worst or more inconsistent pitchers on any team.

On the pitching side, the main return in the Hernandez trade brings in Erik Swanson who could close for many teams.  His elite swing and miss stuff is just what this bullpen needs and what every Jays fan has been crying for.  Add in a full year of Anthony Bass, a healthy Nate Pearson (fingers crossed) the up and coming Yosver Zulueta, the potential of Zach Pop, and either Mitch White or Yusei Kikuchi (whomever doesn’t make the starting rotation) and the Jays finally have the bullpen depth needed to maneuver a long 162 game schedule.

On the rotation side, newcomer Chris Bassitt should easily replace Ross Stripling in the fourth spot.  In Kikuchi and White the Jays have two fine candidates for the fifth spot, Jose Berrios should be closer to his career norms which should offset a slight decline from Alek Manoah (really, only the likes of Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez can be expected to repeat a 2.24 ERA).  Kevin Gausman should be able to repeat his very good performance from last year.  In addition to this group, there is actually some depth, in the likes of either Kikuchi or White, Zack Thompson, Trent Thornton, Thomas Hatch, Casey Lawrence, Drew Hutchison and prospects Hayden Juenger and Ricky Tiedemann.

In addition to the on-field improvements outlined above the Jays front office also seems to have made efforts to improve the ‘culture’ of the team.  Out are the sometimes lackadaisical Teoscar and Lourdes, in are the winning attitudes of Keirmaier and Belt.  Don Mattingly wasn’t brought in to play with sunflower seeds or to tailor home run jackets, he was brought in to support John Schneider in developing a professional, winning culture in the clubhouse and on the bench.

And finally, for those lamenting the loss of top prospect Gabriel Moreno, consider that in order to acquire the likes if Varsho in a trade it was always likely he or Alejandro Kirk had to go the other way.  Well the Jays would have had Moreno for six years, including a year or two of MLB acclimation.  By keeping Kirk, the Jays have four years of an elite bat to share the catching duties with Danny Jansen (at least for the two years the Jays will have Jansen).  For a win now team, keeping four years of Kirk (with Jansen) at the expense of six years of Moreno is a no brainer.

So, in the final analysis, the Jays are a much better and more complete team than the one that finished last year.  The defense is much better, the offence is just as good and likely better when you consider the additional diversity and speed, the rotation is just as good and definitely deeper, the bullpen added a potential closer without a substantial subtraction.  On top of all this, the the Jays improved the long term outlook of the franchise by trading Hernandez and Gurriel Jr. a year before free agency and getting multiple players with years of control that should actually help the team this year and years into the future.  And they did all of the above without trading any prospects of note, other than Moreno who is redundant due to the presence of Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen.

More than any team since 2016, this is Blue Jays team that I can get behind and expect to contend for a World Series title, and maybe the best part is that the window of contention should be open for a good long while!

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