Blue Jays trade deadline target: Joe Ryan

Ryan throws a six-pitch mix, anchored by a four-seam fastball that he throws 52 per cent of the time and grades out as the best pitch in baseball with a plus-21 run value per Statcast. While the pitch has slightly below average velocity (93.5 m.p.h.) and induced vertical break (13.5 inches), his 113 location+ with the four-seam (a count and pitch type-adjusted measure of a pitcher’s ability to locate) ranks third among starters.  

He only throws a curveball two per cent of the time, but his other four secondary offerings – a sweeper, splitter, sinker and slider – all have between 13 and eight per cent usage. His sweeper has 20 inches of horizontal break and the highest whiff rate of his repertoire at 37 per cent, while his sinker has the highest putaway percentage at 24.  

Contract situation

With two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before he becomes a free agent in 2028, the cost for Ryan would undoubtedly be enormous.

Yet the enduring argument is that the hope is for prospects to turn out as impact big leaguers like Ryan. Given that the Blue Jays are well-positioned to win their division for the first time since 2015 and get a bye to the ALDS for the first time since the current postseason format was introduced in 2022, they are deserving of a true high-end starter to push them over the top.  

Ryan is earning $3 million in salary this season and would certainly be due for a raise in arbitration in 2026.  

How does Ryan help the Blue Jays? 

Ryan would immediately slot in as the Blue Jays’ go-to arm in the rotation, and while that could change depending on both his and Gausman’s performance down the stretch, having those two lined up to start games one and two of a postseason series inspires confidence.  

Bassitt and Berrios, while serviceable and potential options as playoff starters, have been inconsistent and prone to bad luck on balls in play. Berrios, in particular, has concerning underlying numbers.

Acquiring Ryan, a controllable starter in his prime, would cost a ton. When the Blue Jays made a trade with the Twins for Berrios in 2021, Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin went the other way – both top 100 prospects at the time. Berrios also had one less year of control, and Ryan is better. But the Blue Jays also have 95.5% odds to make the playoffs, and 7.2% odds to win the World Series (per FanGraphs). Plus, Toronto wouldn’t be trading top prospects for rental, as Ryan would be a stalwart member of the rotation for at least two more full seasons.