Blue Jays vs. Yankees: ALDS Preview

Starting Pitching Matchups

*Not official at time of publication

Game 1: Kevin Gausman vs. Will Warren

• Kevin Gausman (TOR): 32 GS, 10-11, 3.59 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 24.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 4.1 fWAR
• Will Warren (NYY): 33 GS, 9-8, 4.44 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 24.1 K%, 9.1 BB%, 2.1 fWAR

Toronto will have their undisputed ace in Kevin Gausman on the bump to start off the ALDS, and the Yankees will likely hand the ball to rookie sensation Will Warren, who’s made 33 starts this season. This is a battle of Toronto’s top arm against the Yankee’s No. 4 pitcher in what will surely be an exciting start to the series.

Gausman has a career 6.91 ERA in the postseason over 25.2 innings with a 3.63 FIP, and as a Blue Jay he’s posted a 6.52 ERA in two career starts, so he’s had his fair share of struggles in the playoffs. Warren has only made one start against the Blue Jays, which came in Toronto on July 2nd this year, and he only went 4.0 innings of 8-run ball while allowing 10 hits and four walks.

Gausman has a career 3.67 ERA against the Yankees but has allowed 10 home runs to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, so as much as he’s brought his A-game against the Yankees in his career, those two sluggers have had his number. That being said, they only make up two spots in the Yankees’ lineup.

Warren’s inflated walk rate and decent strikeout rate might not grade out too well against the Blue Jays, who boast the league’s best strikeout rate at just 17.8% and lead the league in batting average (.265) and on-base percentage (.333). Gausman will need his best stuff to be on point in this game, as the rest of the series will hinge on his ability to shut down the Yankees in the debut game of the matchup.

That being said, the advantage in this game is squarely in the Blue Jays’ favour in terms of starting pitching, as Kevin Gausman having yet another strong start against the Yankees would give Toronto a great chance to win.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Game 2: Shane Bieber vs. Max Fried

• Shane Bieber (TOR): 7 GS, 4-2, 3.57 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 23.3 K%, 4.4 BB%, 0.3 fWAR
• Max Fried (NYY): 32 GS, 19-5, 2.86 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 23.6 K%, 6.4 BB%, 4.8 fWAR

New York’s ace Max Fried will be taking the mound in Game 2 in Toronto for the first time since July in which he had two tough outings at the Rogers Centre. Canada’s eyes won’t be on Fried as much as they’ll be on Shane Bieber, however, as the right-hander will make his eighth MLB start since returning from Tommy John surgery.

Fried has a career 2.70 ERA against the Blue Jays and a 4.07 ERA as a Yankee against the Jays, but the biggest thing to focus on is his inability to strike Toronto batters out. His 4.4 K/9 rate in four outings against the Jays this season pales in comparison to his 8.7 K/9 across the entirety of the 2025 season, so there’s going to be a lot of balls put in play against the Yankees in his outings this series.

New York’s defense has been somewhat sketchy down the stretch but has locked it down in the Wild Card Series so this should be an interesting aspect to focus on. Toronto’s superiority on the defensive side should be a determining factor in the series, and if the Jays can put pressure on the Yankee defense, they’ll have a strong chance at winning the series.

Fried, however, has been in Cy Young contention all season long and has been one of the American League’s most dominant pitchers. He’s been the frontrunner for a 94-win Yankees team that just beat their division rival Boston Red Sox in a three-game Wild Card set, and Fried himself turned in a masterful performance in Game 1 (6.1 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K).

While it’s very possible that Bieber could out-duel Fried if the Jays are able to get the jump on the left-hander, chances are that the odds are in the Yankees’ favour in this matchup.

Advantage: Yankees

Game 3: Trey Yesavage vs. Carlos Rodón

• Trey Yesavage (TOR): 3 GS, 1-0, 3.21 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 25.8 K%, 11.3 BB%, 0.4 fWAR
• Carlos Rodón (NYY): 33 GS, 18-9, 3.09 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 25.7 K%, 9.3 BB%, 3.2 fWAR

Game 3 will bring a complex matchup between Trey Yesavage and Carlós Rodon as Toronto’s starter is just starting his bright MLB career while the Yankees’ hurler is right in his prime. Some might find it risky to throw Yesavage into the bright lights of Yankee Stadium in October for his fourth career start, but it’s worth getting veterans like Gausman and Bieber starts at home to hopefully take an early series lead.

Yesavage has a 3.21 ERA across his first three MLB starts and has yet to face the Yankees, so it’s somewhat up in the air whether New York will have his number or not in this game. Carlos Rodón, on the other hand, has pitched nine games against the Jays in his career to the tune of a 4.72 ERA and five games with a 6.66 ERA as a Yankee against Toronto. Because of his start in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, he’ll only get one start in the ALDS but it could prove the most important.

Rodón getting the first home game for the Yankees in this series is incredibly important, as he’s had some of his best games this season at Yankee Stadium and could seriously shift the momentum in Game 3. In 15 home starts this season, Rodón has a 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.882. Batters are slashing just .154/.244/.288 against him in these starts, so it’d be no surprise for him to absolutely shove in this outing.

What Yesavage doesn’t have in MLB experience he makes up for in raw talent on the mount, boasting one of the league’s most impressive fastball-splitter mixes with a tight and hard slider to go along with them. He may only have three big league games under his belt, but maybe this is the stage for him to really make himself known across the league.

As much as Yesavage has a lot to prove and might be able to out-duel Rodón, you can’t bet against a pitcher with a 3.09 ERA who will finish in the top-5 in AL Cy Young voting this season in a game where he has home-field advantage.

Advantage: Yankees

Game 4 (If Needed): Max Scherzer vs. Cam Schlittler

• Max Scherzer: 17 GS, 5-5, 5.19 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 22.9 K%, 6.4 BB%, 0.4 fWAR
• Cam Schlittler (NYY): 14 GS, 4-3, 2.96 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 27.6 K%, 10.2 BB%, 1.3 fWAR

This Game 4 matchup would certainly be an intriguing one, pitting a future Hall of Famer against a flame-throwing rookie. Aside from sharing similar last names, Max Scherzer and Cam Schlittler might share a mound in this series. This wouldn’t be the first time these two have opposed one another, however, as on July 22nd in Toronto Schlittler and the Yankees out-dueled Scherzer and the Blue Jays en route to a 5-4 Yankee victory.

Scherzer has certainly had his issues this season with consistency, allowing four or more runs in five of his last six appearances for the Jays down the stretch. Schlittler, on the other hand, is coming off what is undoubtedly the best performance of his young career in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox, going 8 shutout innings with 12 strikeouts – the most in in a pitching debut in Yankees history.

Scherzer has a career 4.59 ERA against the Yankees and Schlittler has posted a mark of 8.10 in his two career outings against Toronto, so it’ll be a matchup of pitchers trying to prove themselves for different reasons against their opponents. While Schlittler has already shown his ability to go deep into games in 2025 and in his Wild Card Series start, Scherzer has struggled to even get through the first inning at times this season (12.96 season ERA in the first inning).

Given the fact that one of these teams would hold a 2-1 series lead prior to this game occurring, the Yankees and Cam Schlittler have the better odds to shut down an offense and take home a win as opposed to Max Scherzer at the age of 41.

Advantage: Yankees

Game 5 (If Needed): Kevin Gausman vs. Max Fried

This matchup would epitomize the best of both pitching staffs in a battle of the aces to end the series. Gausman and Fried are both making their second appearances of the series and this will undoubtedly be a pitching masterclass from both sides.

Both pitchers have great career numbers against each other’s teams (Gausman 3.67: career ERA vs. NYY, Fried: 2.70 career ERA vs. TOR) and a win-or-go-home Game 5 in this series matchup would only be poetic considering the back-and-forth tensions between these teams throughout the 2025 season. Gausman and Fried have duelled with one another twice this season, Toronto and New York taking one win each.

They matched up against each other on July 1 in the Rogers Centre for a Canada Day matchup in what would become the igniting moment for the Jays’ quest for the AL East crown. Fried gave up four runs and gave up home runs to Andrés Giménez and George Springer in what would become a 12-5 trouncing at the hands of the Jays. In their April 27th faceoff, Gausman took the brunt of Toronto’s loss by giving up six runs and five walks across just 2.2 innings of work.

Suffice to say, this will be a very difficult game to predict either way because of the stalwarts taking the mound for both sides. While Fried has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, Gausman has a 3.86 home ERA this season while Fried has a 6.35 ERA across two starts in Toronto this season.

One has to assume that the Blue Jays faithful will make this matchup a very tough outing for Max Fried, and considering how the Jays have hit against him this season in crucial games, Toronto has the upper hand in this matchup. If you’ve ever seen clips of Blue Jays home games from the 2015 ALDS, you’d know that that ballpark might break the sound barrier this time around.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Key Storylines To Watch: Toronto Blue Jays

Bullpen Ready for October?

Toronto’s bullpen struggles earlier in the season have largely faded as the season has progressed, especially thanks to trade deadline acquisitions Seranthony Domínguez (3.00 ERA with TOR) and Louis Varland (2.97 season ERA). Mason Fluharty has sported a 2.41 ERA since July 1st, Brendon Little has struck out a ridiculous amount of batters, and Jeff Hoffman has really found his stride (0.84 September ERA).

Braydon Fisher will be Toronto’s dark horse in their bullpen with his 1.59 ERA across 11 September appearances. Although not a qualified pitcher due to his 50-inning workload in his rookie season, Fisher has dazzled on the mound, allowing an earned run in only one of his first 22 career outings. He’s faced the Yankees five times this season and he could be the key to Toronto surpassing their division rival.

Depth pieces in Toronto’s bullpen like Ryan Borucki, Tommy Nance, and Yariel Rodríguez have spearheaded the Blue Jays to wins in which the team didn’t bring the best offense to the table. Speaking of, if Toronto is able to put five runs on the board in any given game, odds are they’re going to lock it down.

5 is the Magic Number

The 2025 Blue Jays are 71-4 when scoring five or more runs. No, this isn’t a typo, they’re that good at locking down games when they get a decent amount of run support. They are one of six teams this season to score ≥5 runs in ≥75 games in 2025 and have by far the best record in these games.

While it’s simply not realistic to assume that any offense would be able to consistently score five runs per game against this strong Yankees pitching staff, the 2025 Blue Jays are certainly the last team you’d want to fall into a hole against. Their .947 winning percentage in these games trumps any other team by a wide margin and reaching this mark consistently could spell the end of the Yankees’ season if Toronto’s offense can muster it.

The Yankees are an understandable 13-43 when surrendering at least five runs in a game this season, so Toronto will have to do their best to either get to New York’s starters or beat up on Yankee relievers. Toronto’s bullpen has had a 3.42 ERA (9th-best in MLB) in September while the Yankees’ pen had a 5.13 ERA (27th-best in MLB), so it’s the perfect time for Toronto to try to reach the holy 5-run threshold.

Key Storylines To Watch: New York Yankees

Aaron Judge’s Postseason Legacy

Judge has come under great criticism for his lack of career success in the postseason, as this is one of the hallmarks of a Yankee captain and legend in the team’s history. Aaron Judge is slashing .215/.323/.452 in 60 career postseason games, which might not be bad for any other player but is far below Yankee fans’ expectations for their captain.

Aside from his bobble of a base-hit to center field in Game 5 of the 2024 World Series in what would become an infamous inning for the Yankees, Judge has had what could be called a ‘meh’ postseason career thus far and a great performance in this series could completely change that.

Judge has a career 1.017 OPS against the Toronto Blue Jays and is hitting .300/.420/.597 across 133 games against the Jays, so if there’s any time for him to completely show out at the plate it’s this ALDS against the Yankee’s division rival.

Strong Defense Is Necessary

Over the course of the last month or so of the regular season, the Yankees were laughing stocks across the baseball world for their many gaffs and errors in the field, but they need to make sure they’re immaculate with the glove in this series.

Already having witnessed the 2024 World Series slip away from their grasp due to sloppy defensive mishaps in Game 5 of the series, shortstop Anthony Volpe has been the target of teasing due to his many errors this season. His 19 errors are the fourth-most in MLB this season and he simply needs to be better in the important games this October.

New York has the pitching to win this series and the offense to win this series, but do they have the defense to keep themselves in this series? If they’re able to fire on all cylinders on both sides of the baseball, the Yankees should pose a serious threat to the Blue Jays on paper. Unfortunately for them, the game is played on grass and not paper – the Yankees are on a quest fuelled by redemption for last year and this is just one rung in the ladder that they need to climb to get there.

Prediction

Blue Jays in 5

Despite the fact that the New York Yankees clearly hold the high hand in the starting pitcher matchups between these two teams, the Toronto Blue Jays have consistently proven themselves throughout the 2025 season to be one of the league’s best teams. While they’ve come up short in several attempts since back-to-back ALCS appearances in 2015 and 2016, this is by far their best opportunity yet.

The Yankees, while also being one of the most successful teams in baseball this season, have had plenty of rough patches throughout the year that had them lagging behind the Jays until their big push for the division title over the final week of the season. Toronto is 8-5 against the Yankees in 2025 and has outscored them by a score of 70-59 in these 13 games.

The real determining factor in deciding this series will come down to the bullpens, as the Jays’ back-end of the bullpen has been absolute lights out down the stretch. While their offense has been inconsistent at times throughout the final two weeks of the regular season, all Toronto needs is a hot week at the plate to dominate this series matchup.

Winning in the playoffs is about being hot at the right time, and it just so happens that Toronto has been playing some pretty good baseball as of late – it’s time that they return to the ALCS and give Blue Jays fans a new team to idolize in place of the 2015 and 2016 rosters.