Boston Red Sox offseason reviewed

It was an offseason of huge roster turnover for the Boston Red Sox, as several familiar faces departed and a batch of new ones were brought in to replace them. But the biggest splash of the winter was signing their star third baseman to a massive extension that will likely keep him in Boston for the rest of his career.

Major league signings:

• OF Masataka Yoshida: five years, $90M, plus $15.375M payment to Orix Buffaloes
• RHP Kenley Jansen: two years, $32M
• IF Justin Turner: two years, $21.7M, Turner can opt out after 2023
• RHP Chris Martin: two years, $17.5M
• RHP Corey Kluber: one year, $10M, includes club option for 2024
• OF Adam Duvall: one year, $7M
• LHP Joely Rodríguez: one year, $2M, includes buyout of 2024 club option
• IF Yu Chang: one year, $850K (remains controllable through 2025)

2023 spending: $72.15M
Total spending: $196.425M

Option decisions:

• SS Xander Bogaerts opted out of three years and $60M remaining on contract
• LHP James Paxton exercised $4M player option after club declined two-year, $26M club option
• Club declined $12M mutual option for OF Tommy Pham

Trades and claims:

• Claimed C Caleb Hamilton off waivers from Twins, later outrighted
• Claimed RHP Jake Reed off waivers from Orioles, later lost off waivers to Dodgers
• Traded right-hander Easton McGee to Mariners for cash considerations
• Acquired IF Hoy Park from Pirates for LHP Inmer Lobo, Park later traded to Braves for cash considerations
• Acquired RHP Wyatt Mills from Royals for RHP Jacob Wallace
• Traded LHP Darwinzon Hernández to Orioles for cash considerations
• Traded RHP Connor Seabold to Rockies for PTBNL or cash
• Traded LHP Josh Taylor to Royals for IF Adalberto Mondesí and PTBNL, later named as IF Angel Pierre
• Acquired LHP Richard Bleier from Marlins for RHP Matt Barnes and cash
• Acquired RHP Theo Denlinger from White Sox for RHP Franklin German

Extensions:

• 3B Rafael Devers: ten years and $313.5M in new money

Notable minor league signings:

• Raimel Tapia (later selected to 40-man roster), Jorge Alfaro, Narciso Crook, Niko Goodrum, Greg Allen, Ryan Sherriff, Jake Faria, Daniel Palka

Notable losses:

• Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer, Franchy Cordero, Abraham Almonte, Eduard Bazardo, Tyler Danish, Jeter Downs, Darwinzon Hernandez, Easton McGee, Connor Seabold, Matt Barnes, Josh Taylor, Franklin German, Thad Ward, Noah Song

This millennium has been a rollercoaster ride for the Red Sox, who’ve won four World Series titles but also finished last in the AL East five times. That’s been true in recent years as well. After that fourth title in 2018, ownership seemed determined to cut payroll, which eventually led to Mookie Betts and David Price getting traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. That preceded one of those last-place finishes in 2020. Though the club shocked with a postseason berth in 2021, they were back down in the basement in 2022.

It seemed possible that an offseason of big changes was in store after that disappointing campaign. A decent chunk of the roster was headed for free agency, with the rotation set to lose Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill. Slugger J.D. Martinez was also on the verge of departing after five years in Boston. But the most notable potential loss was Xander Bogaerts, who had been the club’s shortstop for the previous decade, helping them win two championships and emerging as one of the better players in the league.

Bogaerts had already agreed to one extension with the Sox back in April 2019, a six-year, $120M deal that ran through 2025. However, it contained an opt-out provision for the shortstop after 2022, at which point he would have three years and $60M remaining on it. Given his tremendous talent, he would easily be able to top that on the open market, making the decision to opt-out an easy one. The club reportedly made a cursory attempt to extend Bogaerts by adding one year and $30M to his existing deal last spring, but that still didn’t come close to his true worth.

Bogaerts triggered his opt-out, becoming a free agent and part of the “big four” shortstops alongside Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. MLBTR predicted Bogaerts could secure $189M over seven years, more than double the four years and $90M the Red Sox were effectively offering with that extension. Bogaerts proved to be quite popular, garnering interest from teams like the Cubs, Twins, Blue Jays and others. The Red Sox apparently made an effort to bring him back, but he ultimately signed with the Padres for $280M over 11 years, blowing past what he left on the table in Boston and most predictions. It was also well beyond the last-ditch effort of the Red Sox, which was reportedly in the $160M range.

This left many of the club’s fans in a worrisome position. They had now watched two superstars depart in a short amount of time, with the Betts trade and now Bogaerts. On top of that, a third domino seemed ready to fall in the not-too-distant future, as Rafael Devers was slated for free agency after 2023. Given the way things played out with the first two players, it would have been fair to dread that the same would play out again with the third baseman. But the Sox didn’t want that to happen, so they made sure to lock Devers up, eventually signing him to a massive extension that runs through 2033. The two sides had already agreed to an arbitration-avoiding contract for 2023, so this technically added ten more years and $313.5M, one of the largest contracts in MLB history. Devers will turn 37 just as that contract is winding down, so it’s entirely possible that he eventually spends his entire career in Boston.

While those Bogaerts and Devers storylines were playing out, the Sox were very busy elsewhere on the roster. They made another meaningful splash by adding NPB star Masataka Yoshida. The club is evidently quite enamored of the outfielder, as their contract went well beyond most projections and led to criticism after the final numbers were revealed. The $90M guarantee also results in a $15.375M posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes, bringing Boston’s total commitment to $105.375M. There’s little doubt that Yoshida can hit, as he produced a .326/.419/.538 batting line during his time in Japan. But there are questions about whether his contact-over-power style will play in North America. His defense is also a weak point, as he only played 39 games in the outfield last year, spending the rest as the designated hitter. Fenway Park is perhaps a good landing spot for him, given the small range in front of the Green Monster in left, but it’s still a gamble.

The Sox clearly felt it was necessary to bolster a lineup that had lost both Bogaerts and Martinez. Yoshida will hopefully help some, but they also brought in Justin Turner. Since Martinez signed with the Dodgers, he and Turner have effectively swapped places. For Boston, they’re getting a player with a bit more versatility since Martinez has been taking the field less and less, serving as the designated hitter only in 2022. Turner will likely be in that role a lot, but he can at least take a corner infield spot on occasion. However, he’s also three years older and is coming off an inconsistent season where he slumped at the beginning but finished on a hot streak.

The rotation also needed addressing, with the aforementioned losses of Eovaldi, Hill and Wacha. The Sox did make one move to cover for those losses, bringing in Corey Kluber on a modest one-year, $10M deal plus incentives. The two-time Cy Young winner lost most of 2019 and 2020 due to injuries but has been healthier of late. He made 16 starts for the Yankees in 2021 and then 31 for the Rays last year. His 4.34 ERA wasn’t exactly a match for his previous career highs, though he showed he can pitch well enough in the “crafty veteran” phase of his career now that his previous power arsenal is diminished.

That turned out to be the lone move to address the rotation, as it seems the Sox will largely rely on in-house improvements there. A return to form from Chris Sale would be a big one, as he’s hardly pitched over the past three years due to various injuries. It’s a similar situation for James Paxton, who didn’t pitch at all last year and triggered a player option to stick in Boston for 2023. He’s already on the injured list this year due to a hamstring strain but will hopefully be back before too long. It’s also hoped that younger pitchers can take steps forward. Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have each done some starting and some bullpen work but neither has been fully established as a proper big-league starter. 2023 figures to be a test case for both, though Whitlock is on the injured list for now while still ramping up from last year’s hip surgery. Brayan Bello was a highly-touted prospect who made his debut last year. His 4.71 ERA wasn’t amazing but he did get grounders at a solid 55.7% rate. Like Whitlock and Houck, this year should afford him the chance to prove himself as a viable starter, though he’s also starting the season on the IL due to some forearm tightness.

The bullpen was seemingly more of a focus than the rotation, which is understandable given the club’s relievers had a 4.59 ERA last year, placing them 26th in the league in that category. The Sox made a pair of sizeable investments to bring in two very good relievers. Kenley Jansen got two years and $32M while Chris Martin got $17.5M over the same two-year span. Jansen has been one of the best closers in baseball for over a decade now, while Martin has somewhat quietly been excellent himself in recent years. Southpaw Joely Rodriguez was also brought aboard on a much more modest deal, though he’s currently on the shelf due to an oblique strain.

In addition to those signings, there was much shuffling of chairs. Matt Strahm became a free agent while Matt Barnes, Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernandez, Franklin German and Easton McGee were all shipped out in various trades. Richard Bleier came the other way in the Barnes deal while the club also acquired Wyatt Mills. Time will tell whether that game of musical chairs was helpful, but the additions of Jansen and Martin should bolster the group.

Most of these moves happened before the calendar flipped over to 2023 and the roster was starting to come together, but the club got some bad news that led to numerous domino effects. It was reported in January that Trevor Story had an internal brace procedure on his right elbow. That’s a modified version of Tommy John that generally has a lesser recovery time, but only slightly. Story could make a late return but will miss most of 2023. Signed to a six-year deal going into 2022, it seems like the plan all along was to have Story play second base for one year and then move over to shortstop once Bogaerts left. That plan is now on hold and the Sox had to pivot over the last month or so before spring training.

It would eventually come to be realized that the post-Story plan is to have Enrique Hernández come in from center field to take over at short. He played in 100 games at shortstop coming into 2023 but they were scattered over many seasons in his role as a utility player as he’d never had a full-time gig there. To cover the vacated center field position, they signed Adam Duvall and Raimel Tapia, each of whom had just 75 games played at that position coming into the season. Christian Arroyo will be taking over at second. That’s his primary position but he’s primarily been a bench player in the majors, never topping 87 games played in a season. His defense at the keystone is graded well but he hasn’t really shown the ability to be much more than a league-average hitter in his career.

The fallout from Story’s injury leaves the club with fairly unproven options at three up-the-middle positions. That’s true behind the plate as well, where they will be without Christian Vázquez for the first time in years. He was traded to the Astros at last year’s deadline and then signed with the Twins in free agency. The club opened this year with just a pair of backstops on their roster in Reese McGuire and Connor Wong. The latter opened the season with 33 games of major league experience. McGuire has 230 career games but mostly in a backup role, as last year’s 89 games are a career-high. Jorge Alfaro was brought aboard via a minor-league deal but has yet to crack the roster.

There’s also going to be an unproven option at first base, though one with much more reason for excitement. Triston Casas debuted late in 2022 and hit five home runs in 27 games while walking in 20% of his trips to the plate. Casas is one of the top prospects in the league, and the Sox were confident enough in letting him take over the position that they released Eric Hosmer. Hosmer had been acquired from the Padres at last year’s deadline, with the Friars eating all his salary and sending a couple of prospects to Boston. It cost the Red Sox nothing to let him go, though it still acted as a vote of confidence in Casas.

All in all, there’s plenty of talent on the roster but also plenty of uncertainty. The four up-the-middle positions are all being covered by guys with question marks around their viability, which are left field and first base manned by rookies. There are reasons to doubt Alex Verdugo in right field, as well as his performance, which has tailed off in each of the past two seasons. Then there’s the rotation, which is counting on a lot of bounce-backs and step-forwards.

The silver lining of all this roster turnover is that the Sox will get a parting gift from Bogaerts and Eovaldi, as both players turned down qualifying offers before signing elsewhere. However, even in that case, the silver isn’t quite as shiny as it could have been. The Sox did some selling at the deadline last year, including the aforementioned Vázquez trade, but ultimately stopped short of a true selloff. Partially as a result of that, they ended up about $4.5MM over the luxury tax line. That only led to about $900K in taxes but it diminishes what they will receive for the departure of Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Their return would have been one extra draft pick per player just before the third round of the upcoming draft, but those will now be moved to after the fourth round, a drop of over 60 spots. The club seems to be in a good position to reset its luxury tax status this year, as its CBT number is currently at $221M, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of this year’s lowest threshold of $233M.