Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros prediction, pick, MLB odds for Wed. 8/21

Tony Sartori’s Red Sox vs Astros Preview

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Trust in the Bats

While it has been a turbulent campaign for Criswell, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming. The right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Regardless of how much of this expected positive regression comes to fruition on Wednesday, Criswell should receive plenty of run support. Boston ranks in the top six of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

This dominance at the plate is likely to continue against Verlander. Through 25 combined career plate appearances against the future HOF'er, this current Red Sox lineup boasts a .273 BA, .591 SLG and .371 wOBA.

Houston Astros Betting Preview: Verlander's Return Set to Be Spoiled?

Verlander returns to an MLB mound for the first time in over two months due to a neck injury. First of all, a 41-year-old pitcher with a neck injury coming off a two-month absence is about as big of a red flag as you can get.

However, even if that weren't the case, Verlander would still probably be a good fade candidate based on his performance before the neck injury. The right-hander struggled with racking up strikeouts while subsequently allowing a lot of barreled baseballs.

That combination is usually an issue against a power-hitting team like Boston. Following Verlander is a bullpen that ranks 20th in FIP, which is important to note given that the right-hander will likely be on a short leash.

Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis

Houston also possesses a strong lineup, which is part of the reason why this line is set at its current mark. With that said, the Red Sox outrank the Astros in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

Verlander's surface-level stats are also stronger than Criswell's, another reason why Houston is favored. However, I want to capitalize on Criswell's expected positive regression.

He outranks Verlander in xERA, walk rate, barrel rate, FIP and xFIP. Given these variables, I believe it is worth taking a shot on the underdog in this matchup at +125.

Red Sox vs Astros Pick: Red Sox ML (+125 at bet365 | Play to +120)

Moneyline

Bet the Red Sox on the moneyline.

Run Line (Spread)

Boston +1.5 is certainly the safer play, but I don't want to lay -170 on that spread. Plus, if the Red Sox lose by multiple runs, then we only lose whatever your unit is and not the extra juice.

Over/Under

I'm going to pass on the over/under.

There are too many contradicting variables to attack this market. Criswell is due for positive regression, while Verlander is coming off an extended absence due to a neck injury and is followed by a bullpen that ranks 20th in FIP.

At the same time, both lineups rank in the top half of the league in pretty much every hitting category across the board.