Braves could really use one of Austin Riley’s patented summer heaters

Everyone not named Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson has been absolutely brutal offensively for the Braves over the last month or so, and it would be the perfect time for one of those patented summer heaters from Austin Riley.

There are plenty of other disappointing performers that Atlanta needs to be better. Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies have been horrendous, and the Braves are expecting much more from them. However, that’s not the case for guys like Nick Allen, Alex Verdugo, and Eli White, who shouldn’t be counted on nearly as much as the Braves All-Stars.

Austin Riley is the highest-paid player in franchise history. It’s that cut and dry. Expectations are different for him, and the Braves aren’t getting enough from their third baseman.

It’s not like Riley isn’t seeing the ball. He owns a .272 average, which is right in line with his career average. Where he’s struggling is slugging. Riley’s .429 slugging percentage is the lowest mark of his entire career since becoming a full-time starter.

From 2021-23, Riley slugged more than 100 points higher than his current slugging percentage. On the season, it’s resulted in an OPS+ that is only 8% above league average. It’s a good season, no doubt, but it’s not what the Braves need from Riley.

They expect an MVP candidate. They expect a hitter to strike fear into opposing pitchers every time he steps into the batter’s box. They expect an OPS that is anywhere from 30-40% above league average. Austin Riley hasn’t been good enough, and I think he would even say that.

Thankfully, his favorite month is coming up. We always say when the summer months heat up, so does Austin Riley, and the splits back it up. June has been quite rainy here in Georgia, but the heat is here. We are experiencing the first heat wave of the summer, which would indicate that Austin Riley is about to go nuclear.

Don’t believe me? Well, the hottest months in Georgia are July and August, with average temperatures of 88 and 87 degrees, which just so happen to coincide with Austin Riley’s most productive months.

Across his entire career, Riley owns an impressive .867 OPS in the month of August, and in the hottest month of the year, Austin Riley is Barry Bonds. For his career in the month of July, Riley owns a .955 OPS.

It doesn’t make much sense, but there’s enough data to believe Austin Riley’s heater is coming. It’s only a matter of time, and the Braves need it more than ever. Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr. can only carry the offense for so long.