Braves Matt Olson Looking Closer To All-Star Self As Of Late

Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson is looking good lately. There are corners of Braves Country who don't want to hear that, but that's the case. While the numbers are nowhere near what we saw of him during his All-Star season in 2023, some metrics indicate he's back to that level and even improved in some areas.

First, we'll look at some of the more traditional stats to show that he's trending in the right direction. Over his last 20 games, Olson is batting .263 with a .553 slugging percentage and a .878 OPS. He's also hit six home runs and driven in 11 RBIs during that time. If can average this pace across the rest of the season, he would finish with 44 home runs and 94 RBIs.

Again, these are not near his 54 home runs, 139 RBIs and the .993 OPS that he had a couple seasons ago, but he's certainly back to be the reliable big bat in the heart of the Braves order.

The advanced metrics show that he's seeing the ball as good as ever and perhaps those numebrs could get even closer to what some have grown to expect from him for that reason. According to Baseball Savant, Olson is setting career highs in barrel rate (18.6%), hard-hit rate (56.6%) and exit velocity (94.7). The latter two stats are in the 2% and top 4% in all of MLB.

On top of that, his walk rate (14.4%) is back up to where it was in 2023 and his strikeout rate is a tick below where it was then (23.1% vs 23.2%). What seem like marginal differences have let to much stronger results.

If all of these numbers are the similar or better, somthing has to be off that's resulting in lesser results. That stat is pretty easy to find. He still has a significantly lower batting average on balls in play compared to his All-Star season. It's actually lower than last year too.

• 2023: .302 BABIP 
• 2024: .293 BABIP 
• 2025: .269 BABIP

Even then, that shouldn't be a big concern. That stat has a major luck factor to it. Based on his expected metrics, luck has still been a problem for Olson. His expected average for the season is .254 and his expected slugging is .548. These are actually rather close to his 2023 metrics (.264 xAVG and .558 xSLG).

Turns out he had all the luck he needed a couple years ago and can't luck into anything season.

It's easy to look at how a certain first baseman is doing on the West Coast and understandably be unsatisfied. However, the Braves have a first baseman who's seeing the ball better than nearly anybody in the league. There's nothing there to scoff at.

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