Braves option pair of right-handers to Triple-A

The Atlanta Braves announced today that right-handers Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder have been optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett. The club now has 50 players in camp.

The club is going into the season with four of its five rotation spots spoken for, with Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton firmly cemented. The only question was who would get the fifth spot. Anderson and Elder seemed like the frontrunners for such a job since they have some major league experience and are currently holding down spots on the 40-man roster. With players like Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard dealing with injuries, that seemed to only work in their favor. However, it seems that strong spring performances from Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd may have changed the calculus.

Anderson, 25 in May, seemed like a key member of the rotation at this time a year ago. Over 2020 and 2021, he tossed 160 2/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 49.9% ground ball rate. Based on the fact that he was the third-overall pick in 2016 and a highly-touted prospect, there was every reason to suspect he would just continue on that kind of trajectory for years to come. Unfortunately, he took a big step back last season, posting an ERA of 5.00 with all of his rate stats going in the wrong direction. He got sent down to the minors and was later recalled, but finished the year on the injured list. Though his stock was down after that rough season, many still expected the club to give him another shot here in 2023. The results haven’t been especially strong here in spring so far, as he’s registered a 6.14 ERA in 7 1/3 innings.

In the case of Elder, 24 in May, he has less major league experience, just 54 innings last year. But he posted a solid 3.17 ERA in that time, continuing his groundball-heavy approach from the minors. 49.3% of balls in play allowed in the majors were on the ground, and he had slightly better rates on the farm. But like Anderson, he’s had a rough spring, posting a 6.17 ERA in 11 2/3 innings.

Shuster, 24, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2020 draft and has been pushing his way up the minor league ladder since then. He tossed 90 2/3 innings in Double-A last year with a 2.78 ERA, but that jumped to a 4.25 ERA in 48 2/3 innings at Triple-A. He also saw his strikeout rate drop from 30% at Double-A to 19.4% at Triple-A. Coming into 2023, he was still considered one of the club’s top prospects, though it didn’t seem as though he was kicking the door down. But in 8 2/3 spring innings so far, he has a tiny ERA of 1.04, striking out nine batters while issuing just a single walk and allowing just a pair of hits.

Dodd, 25 in June, was selected in the third round of the 2021 draft and jumped three levels last year. Going from Class-A Advanced to Double-A and Triple-A, he tossed 142 innings on the year with a 3.36 ERA. He struck out 26% of batters faced and walked just 5.3%. He’s also had a strong showing here in camp, tossing 8 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 11 against no walks and five hits.

Clubs will occasionally start a season with a four-man rotation, as the early parts of the schedule will sometimes have extra off days that negate the need for a fifth. That doesn’t seem to be the case for Atlanta, as they have just two days off in the month of April, playing in 12 straight days to start the month and then a 17-day stretch without a day off that covers the end of the month and the start of May. They will certainly need someone to take the ball alongside their front four in that time.

Neither Shuster nor Dodd is currently on the 40-man roster. If one of them is eventually called upon to join the Opening Day rotation, the club will need to make a move to get them a spot. That should be fairly easy, however, as both Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek are expected to miss most or all of this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery late last year. They will be moved to the 60-day injured list at some point and won’t count against the club’s roster number. There’s still a couple of weeks until the opener and the club could always change its plans, but it seems that signs are pointing to a surprise ending to the club’s rotation battle.