Braves vs. Dodgers MLB +527 parlay picks for 'Sunday Night Baseball'

Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110, FanDuel)

Mookie Betts has a lot of history with Charlie Morton, and he's had great success against him. Betts is 13-42 lifetime against Morton, which is good for a .310 batting average. Morton has undoubtedly declined in 2024 and has allowed hard contact. His strikeout rate has slightly decreased, and his xERA entering tonight is 4.51.

Mookie has a .372 xWOBA in 2024, and his elite chase and whiff rates are why he is one of the best hitters in baseball. He also possesses a .430 xSLG against the fastball and curveball, pitches that Morton primarily relies on.

Betts is 5-for-23 as of late but is batting over .300 in the last couple of weeks. Morton is an actual gas can at this point in his career, and there is a good chance the Dodgers' offense will be able to take advantage of that.

Mookie should play a pivotal role in that, so I like him to rack up at least one extra-base hit tonight.

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, FanDuel)

It has not been the warmest homecoming for Freddie Freeman, still beloved by the Atlanta Braves faithful. The future Hall-of-Famer is slumping lately, but he draws a terrific matchup against Morton tonight.

Freeman is batting a robust .478 against Morton in the past, racking up 11 hits in 23 plate appearances. Seven of those 11 hits include an extra-base hit. Freeman has dominated right-handed pitching in 2024, batting .301 against them all season. Fifteen of his 21 HRs have come against right-handers.

Freeman is batting an uncharacteristic 280, but the metrics suggest he has much good fortune coming his way down the stretch. He should exploit the terrific matchup against Morton and take advantage of their history against one another.

Dodgers Alternate Run Line F5 Innings -0.5 (+118, FanDuel)

The Dodgers need to stop the bleeding tonight, and they have a terrific offense matchup working in their favor. The Dodgers currently possess a 3.5-game lead in the NL West, which could evaporate quickly if they do not pull it together.

Besides the excellent numbers against Morton, the Dodgers bats are due to wake up. They've been silenced thus far in Atlanta, and they get the opportunity to take advantage of Morton's 4.51 xERA.

Freeman, Betts, and Hernandez are only batting over .300 against Morton. Shohei Ohtani is 1-for-9 against Morton, but I would not worry about that too much.

The point is, I expect the front of the Dodgers lineup to get at least two turns each against Morton through the first five innings, possibly even three if the offense is cooking. I am worried about Walker Buehler tonight, who enters the start with a 5.19 xERA.

But the Atlanta bats are bound to cool off a tad, and the Dodgers' offense should provide plenty of runs in case of a Buehler implosion. I will take the chance and lay half-a-run with an alternate Dodgers F5 run line tonight.

About the Author

John Feltman is a college football and college basketball writer for The Action Network. He is also a middle school ELA teacher, plaguing his students' minds with the world of sports. He often uses his free periods at school to write and handicap the week's games. Feltman is also a movie junkie, reader and poker player, but most of all, he is a Dallas Cowboys fan. He has not missed a televised game since he was 10 years old. 

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