Bregman vs. Bichette: Who Fits the Red Sox Better?

The Boston Red Sox finally bolstered their lineup Sunday night by acquiring first baseman Willson Contreras from the St. Louis Cardinals.

In an offseason dedicated to reshaping its pitching staff, Boston neglected the lineup for nearly six weeks. As a consequence, the team missed out on Pete Alonso (BAL) or a reunion with 2021 fan favorite Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — each went on to sign five-year deals elsewhere.

But with Contreras, the Red Sox identity on offense begins to take shape. Some issues remain, namely the outfield logjam, but they can finally pencil in production at a position of great need. Last season, their first baseman posted an 86 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR, each bottom five in the league. Additionally, they got bottom 10 production on defense, with -9 defensive runs saved and -6 outs above average.

Entering the offseason, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow was very transparent in what the lineup needed: Impact in the heart of the order and to drastically cut down on strikeouts.

They were already a bat short before outfielder Roman Anthony got hurt in September, so they were two bats short by the time they reached their Wild Card Round matchup with the New York Yankees. You could argue, with injuries to Alex Bregman and Wilyer Abreu, they were even three bats short.

Now that Contreras is in the building though, what’s next for the Red Sox? The 33-year-old improves the power production in the heart of the order but does precious little to improve upon strikeout issues.

Let’s take a look at the top two remaining position player fits on the free agent market.

Alex Bregman

Most people’s minds went to re-signing Bregman instantly after the Contreras deal was announced.

We know what Bregman looks like in Boston; he emerged as an early-season MVP candidate before hurting his quad in May. Even through July, he was elite, posting a 151 wRC+ with a fifth place-tying 2.8 fWAR in just 64 games.

While his 2025 regular season ended poorly, he produced in the team’s three postseason games. In 13 plate appearances, he went 3-for-10 with a double, an RBI, and three walks. Was it elite-level production? No. But outside of Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida, nobody else contributed much to the Red Sox offense in that series.

So much of Bregman’s value comes from intangibles. Often lauded as an emotional leader during his time with the Houston Astros, that reputation followed him to Boston. While out, it seemed he was always talking to a young player. If not a rookie, he was sitting right next to manager Alex Cora.

Becoming an extension of the coaching staff was something Red Sox fans hadn’t seen much of since J.D. Martinez departed after 2022. In a short time, Bregman brought back that level of endearment in addition to production.

The main problem with intangibles, however, is putting a price on them. Yes, 2025 Bregman fit Boston almost perfectly — only almost because the organization jettisoned Rafael Devers in the process — but does 2026 and beyond Bregman fit just as well?

He turns 32 just after Opening Day, and the Red Sox often are reluctant to commit long-term to players his age. While he had a 125 wRC+ with great bat-to-ball and command of the strike zone, that dreaded age of 34 strikes in Year 3.

Bo Bichette

Bo Bichette profiles a similar game to Bregman, he’s just nearly four years younger. Both players are hit-over-power profiles, but don’t take that for granted as an opposing pitcher. As we saw in World Series Game 7, Bichette can hit a ball into orbit at a moment’s notice.

While true sluggers do more damage traditionally, hitters like Bichette are almost more terrifying to face. His red flags as a hitter are he doesn’t walk much, in large part to a 12th percentile chase rate. Yet, that comes with a 99th percentile expected batting average, 83rd percentile whiff, and 86th percentile strikeout rate.

Those high-chase, high-contact profiles are often susceptible to batted ball luck. But Bichette has four seasons of at least 50 extra-base hits.

Where he becomes less of a fit for Boston is his inability to pull the ball in the air. Last season, he posted a 13.2% Pull Air rate. Now, he did go up-the-middle more, which is something Red Sox coaches identified as critical components of in-house options like Story and Jarren Duran. But the name of the game today is pulling the ball in the air.

Can he continue to craft his swing and tailor it Fenway Park? Perhaps. But as he remains a free agent, that hole in his game looms large.

Not to mention, where Bregman is a top-flight defender at third base, Bichette is a bottom-tier defender at shortstop. It’s likely signing in Boston locks him into a position change, but we only have a five-game sample of him playing second base. Who knows how he holds up at the position over a 162-game season.

Why Bichette Makes More Sense

With the Toronto Blue Jays also being in on both free agents, the Red Sox have an opportunity to force the issue by getting aggressive.

What made the Jays so exciting a story in 2025 was the dominance of its homegrown talent in Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., both of whom entering the prime of their careers.

In poaching Bichette, Boston kills two birds with one stone. Bird No. 1, they add a very high-floor bat who’s in his late 20s and conceivably hits in the top third of the lineup behind Anthony for years to come. Bird No. 2, signing him could conceivably force the Jays to sign Bregman.

That pseudo-trade would take some serious getting used to. However, for the Red Sox, that swap in a way shortens Toronto’s window. They have clear reservations about how Bregman will age, otherwise they’d have been in hotter pursuit of him last winter, and on a longer-term deal. While them having reservations doesn’t guarantee regression, Father Time is undefeated for a reason.

Bringing back Bregman gives the Red Sox an infield of three guys at least 32 years old; Bichette gives them two under 30.

Four years isn’t an insignificant number, either. It’s not like Bichette is 30 and you’re balancing five years starting at 32 with seven starting at 30. Even if both follow identical aging curves, Bichette’s still got four years of catching up to present-day Bregman.

Sometimes guys are just analytical outliers. Even with penciling a position change for Bichette, his bat is viable. Outside of an injury-riddled 2024, his floor as a full-time big-leaguer is a 122 wRC+ with nearly 4.0 fWAR. Sure, he doesn’t pull the ball in the air, but he’s great at playing to his strengths.