Brendan Donovan Continues To Prove He’s Criminally Underrated

Above is his spray chart from last season. Beautiful. While the power all came from the pull side, Donovan was able to take any pitch and find the open field. Fastballs? A .270 average. Breaking balls? Sure, .264 average. Off-speed? No problem, .325 average.

We aren’t talking about a platoon player inflating his numbers by only facing right-handed pitchers, either. Donovan plays against lefties and has fared admirably with a .260/.341/.339 slash line. Those aren’t exactly All-Star level numbers, but they’re enough to keep him in the lineup and allow him to continue to move around when other lefties grab a seat with a southpaw on the mound.

With such an advanced approach and a zone contact rate over 90%, Donovan was a proven pure hitter. The next step he needed to take would be finding ways to add a little more power to his game without losing what got him to this point. In 2025, we are starting to see just that.

2025: Donovan’s Statement Year?

While Donovan will likely never advance to being a true power hitter, adding even a little bit of power would take him a long ways.

Although it has only been 26 games, Donovan has racked up three home runs, which puts him on pace to surpass his previous career high of 14. His contact, across the board, has improved without him needing to surrender his high-contact profile:

Donovan is still making contact at an elite rate (10% better than average) while also making louder contact. He’s already set a new career high for max exit velocity, while his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, ISO, and barrel rate are at career bests, as well. This is all just a nerdy way to say that Donovan is impacting the baseball more than we have seen throughout his career.

Will this trend continue? Who knows. The pessimist, or maybe realist, will say the past two seasons were similar and it’s more likely that he returns to those numbers. The optimist will say he’s simply learned to tap into more power due to development and attacking more pitches.

And they could be right.

Donovan’s power trend on off-speed pitches, primarily changeups from righties, is more than just a coincidence.

As you can see from the graph above, his slugging percentage on off speed pitches (green line) has steadily improved from year to year. As a lefty bat, you are going to see a high number of change-ups from righties, and Donovan continues to do more and more damage against those pitches.

The league might adjust and opt to throw him fewer changeups, but Donovan pretty much eliminates that option. As someone who works counts the way he does, pitchers have to work through their arsenal and are forced to reach deep in their bag in order to try and find ways to get him out. He’s going to make them throw everything they have to offer.

Ok, well, do the expected stats hold up? Yes. This season, and the two prior, Donovan’s expected slugging has actually been higher than his actual slugging percentage. That’s a good sign, even if it’s not concrete evidence that this trend is 100% here to stay.

Regardless of just how much power there is to unlock, Donovan provides a floor that is about as rock solid as they come. This is not a high-variance player, but quite the opposite. There’s a high level of production that you can count on. He’s going to put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts. As old school as it might sound, having a player like that does come with value.

You can slot him anywhere in the lineup, and the Cardinals have. The only position in the batting order that he has posted lower than a .730 OPS is in the four hole, and these are his career numbers, not some small sample size trick.

An ability to move up and down the lineup while filling in almost anywhere in the field and providing well-above-average offense? Every single team could find a place for Donovan.

Final Thoughts

St. Louis has spent the better part of a year in a confusing spot.

Poor play, changes in the organization, the “will they or won’t they?” enter a rebuild question, and so on. Their direction (I’m not even comfortable calling it that) remains unclear. Paul Goldschmidt walked in free agency, but Nolan Arenado wasn’t traded. Hell, no one was traded. And, no one was really added.

Despite the confusion or delusion around this team, Donovan has been a consistent contributor. Someone fans have grown to love and managers adore. No matter the task, he’s up for it.

If the Cardinals do decide to rebuild, Donovan would be a very attractive trade piece. Or, he could be seen as part of the core that helps lead St. Louis back in future years.

Although much is uncertain, one thing I know is that Brendan Donovan deserves more praise and recognition.