Brewers vs Yankees Prediction, Pick, Odds for Thursday, March 27

The New York Yankees host the Milwaukee Brewers on MLB Opening Day on Thursday, March 27. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN and MLB.TV.

Fresh off a run to the World Series, the Yankees enter the 2025 season with a new look. Juan Soto departed for the New York Mets in free agency, but the Yankees pivoted by adding the likes of Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, and Paul Goldschmidt. The Brewers and Yankees actually did business with each other over the offseason, as New York acquired ace reliever Devin Williams for Nestor Cortes.

Find my Brewers vs Yankees prediction and prop picks in my Opening Day preview for Thursday, March 27, below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.

• Brewers vs Yankees picks: Brewers ML +130 up to +125

My Brewers vs Yankees best bet is on Milwaukee moneyline +130 via DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Brewers vs Yankees Odds

Tony Sartori’s Brewers vs Yankees Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers’ ace Freddy Peralta takes the mound on Opening Day, and he is my primary reason for backing the underdogs at +130. Milwaukee possesses the starting pitching edge in this contest, considering Peralta is one of the stronger pitchers in the league.

Peralta has finished with an ERA in the 3.00s in each of the past five seasons. Last year, the right-hander posted an 11-9 record with a 3.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.

He finished the 2024 season in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate.

Following Peralta is one of the best relief staffs in baseball. While the loss of Devin Williams will certainly factor into some regression, the rest of the bullpen remains extremely strong.

Last season, the Brewers’ relief staff ranked in the top 10 in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WAR.

The New York Yankees’ advantage in this game is their bats. However, there are a couple of reasons why I believe that gap doesn’t justify the price tag on the Yankees moneyline.

First, the New York lineup is missing a few pieces: Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu. Second, Milwaukee’s lineup should be able to keep up in this matchup, considering it is going against left-hander Carlos Rodón.

Last season, Rodón ranked in the bottom half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.

As mentioned above, Williams’ leaving the Brewers’ bullpen and joining the Yankees weakens the former while strengthening the latter. However, there’s still a strong argument to be made that Milwaukee possesses the stronger relief staff.

Last season, New York’s bullpen ranked lower than the Brewers’ in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WAR.

Brewers vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis

There is no denying Peralta is a stronger pitcher than Rodón, which in itself is reason enough to justify taking a shot on Milwaukee at +130. Even if you counter with New York’s stronger lineup, the Brewers’ relief pitching is a wash at worst.

Therefore, it’s hard to argue Milwaukee deserves to be returning +130, other than the fact that it’s playing on the road in this Opening Day matchup. That alone is not worth the -155 price tag on New York.

Pick: Brewers ML +130

Moneyline

As mentioned, I’m betting Brewers ML at +130 up to +125.

Run Line (Spread)

I also like the Brewers to cover, but I don’t want to lay -166 to pay for the insurance if they lose by exactly one run.

Over/Under

I lean towards Under 8 at -115, considering both bullpens figure to be strong this season. With that said, I would rather just back Milwaukee at +130.

Brewers vs Yankees Parlay

• Brewers ML
• Joey Ortiz to record a hit
• Rhys Hoskins to record a hit

Parlay Odds: +460

If we are backing Milwaukee to win this game, it will need to record some hits in the process. Joey Ortiz is 1-2 in his career against Rodón with a double, while Rhys Hoskins boasts a .333 BA and .778 SLG through nine plate appearances against the left-hander.

Brewers vs Yankees Betting Trends