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Cal Raleigh May Win AL MVP Over Aaron Judge For This Reason
New York Yankees star Aaron Judge. © Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Most of the AL's major awards seem locked up at this point - Tarik Skubal should win Cy Young, Nick Kurtz almost certainly will win the Rookie of the Year honors and Aroldis Chapman seems a shoe-in to be the Mariano Rivera Award recipient.

The biggest race, however, has yet to be decided in the court of public opinion, and it reflects a major trend in the world of baseball, and the weight it puts on historical milestones.

Aaron Judge took home the AL MVP award in 2022 over Shohei Ohtani, largely a result of his record breaking 62 home runs, which effectively erased Ohtani's then-expectedly good dual-threat play (15-9, 2.33 ERA, 4th place Cy Young pitching) in the minds of the BBWAA.

Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh may be following in the Judge playbook with his 2025 season, and him taking home the MVP would have major implications for how future awards are decided.

On Tuesday, Raleigh passed Mickey Mantle for most home runs in a single season by a switch hitter, bashing his 55th and 56th home runs of the season against Kansas City. With No. 56, he now has tied Ken Griffey Jr. for the Mariners' all-time mark.

Raleigh's new accolade is one of many already this season. The 28-year-old already passed Salvador Perez for the most home runs in a season by a catcher, and is now the only player in MLB history to hit 20+ home runs from each side of the plate in a single season.

Oh, and he's doing all that while playing the most demanding position on the diamond, and doing so with an 87th percentile framing skill and an 81st percentile framing run value, per Savant.

On the other side of the continent, Judge is doing what he does. He's not about to break his own record, but he did just pass Joe DiMaggio on the all-time Yankees home run leaderboard.

With a .326/.451/.676 slash line in 2025, Judge has gone toe-to-toe with his 2024 self, even doing so with a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. He seems destined to post his fourth career season with 50+ home runs, and can easily reach nine wins above replacement (WAR) by season's end.

Even without Juan Soto, Judge is carrying this team from a culture perspective, and leading the Yankees as only a captain can.

Therein lies the question: is Raleigh's objectively sexy season going to lead to more first-place votes than Judge's expected, typical and worn-out formula? Raleigh, the underdog story coming out of nowhere playing for an underdog team, or the guy who's been achieving this same level of excellence for nearly a decade now?

The voters already indicated in 2022 the extreme weight placed on historical achievements, and as we know, Raleigh has plenty. If the voters decide to put that same high level of emphasis on accolades, or look to spice it up a little bit, don't be surprised if they go with Big Dumper. The next few weeks will be very revealing.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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