Caleb Durbin’s Hot June Shows He Just Needed Time

Durbin’s turnaround is unique, in that it was so hard to predict. Durbin’s expected stats during these struggles did him no favors.

While his wRC+ before June 10 made him a bottom-five hitter in the league, while his xwOBA made him the 11th-worst hitter in the league. It’s an improvement, but not one that’s likely to inspire fans with hope for change.

The numbers backing up Durbin’s game to some degree were his batted-ball metrics. While still sitting around the 20th percentile of players, Durbin did have a hard-hit percentage at 29.9% and a line-drive rate at 17.5%. This means he was making good contact at times and seeing a few more loud outs than the average ballplayer.

In many ways, Durbin merely needed time to adjust. You can call it the Boston media or the change of scenery, but it is the second year in a row where Durbin has struggled early on.

On May 23, 2025, Durbin had an OPS of just .524 with the Brewers. This isn’t some new phenomenon for the young third baseman, but perhaps a pattern of early-season slumps.

Durbin’s Defense Kept Him in the Lineup

When Durbin struggled so mightily, it was easy for any baseball fan to ask, “Why is he still in the starting lineup?”

Well, one factor is the lack of backup options in the lineup. Trevor Story’s injury forced Marcelo Mayer to play shortstop, and with second base duties split between Monasterio, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Nick Sogard, it was hard to find consistent time for anyone but Durbin at third.

The other factor that made it tricky to keep Durbin out of the lineup was his defense. Durbin has +10 defensive runs saved this season, which is the best number among AL third basemen. He trails only two-time Platinum Glover Matt Chapman among all third basemen.

These metrics become more of an anomaly when you consider Durbin’s arm strength, which ranks in just the 28th percentile per Statcast. Despite his strong range, Durbin does not release the ball to first with much velocity. Rather, he is consistent when throwing. Among qualified fielders, only Durbin, Nolan Arenado, and Manny Machado have committed one or fewer throwing errors in 2026.

Boston Media Difficulty

While the presence of home fans hasn’t caused a major change in Durbin’s numbers, it’s worth considering the effects that the local market can have. Even on the road, the pressure of a fanbase can cause changes to a player’s mental game.

When Durbin was slumping through the first week of the season, he told WEEI’s Rob Bradford, “‘That’s Boston, right? You want fans that are poured into it. When you’re not going good, when it’s bad, you’re beating yourself up more than anything. You definitely don’t take it personally. It’s honestly a good thing because you want the fans to be on you, and that’s what makes Boston special.”

There are certainly players who struggle to acclimate to a market as large as Boston and succeed more among smaller fan bases. Daniel Bard is a classic example of this, where he developed the yips in Boston and opted to play for Colorado when he made a comeback seven years later.

That being said, it’s hard to paint Durbin as one of these cases. Sure, he struggled more in Boston than he ever had with Milwaukee. But when he was the worst hitter in the league, his numbers were better in Fenway. During this recent hot stretch, his numbers on the road exceed those at home.

Durbin has admitted that Boston fans are harder on their players, but that hasn’t been reflected in his numbers throughout the first few months in Boston and Milwaukee, respectively. Red Sox fans learned in June that Durbin needed some time to adjust. Since then, he’s been perhaps the most important piece in the Red Sox lineup.

All stats were taken prior to play on July 6.