Can Alek Thomas Lock Down the D-backs’ Center Field Job in 2025?

Alek Thomas has been given a runway to take over the center field position for the Diamondbacks. On the surface, it appears he's making good on that opportunity. He's slashing .287/.331/.383 with seven doubles and two triples. His .713 OPS and 99 wRC+ would be career highs if he can maintain those numbers.

It's an uptick in production from what he's historically provided in his career. Entering the 2025 season, he's been a .226 hitter with a .659 OPS and a 73 OPS+. He lost his starting center field job to Jake McCarthy at the end of the 2024 season, although he has an opportunity to put a stranglehold on it this season.

Thomas was a top-20 prospect at the time of his debut, demolishing minor league pitchers, but the bat has not performed to expectations in the major leagues. The Diamondbacks have been patient with the 25-year-old, with the expectation that he'll tighten his approach and improve his offense. He's been sent down to Triple-A Reno to work on his swing and approach in each of the last two seasons.

Teams are willing to give up some offense to have a strong defender in center field. In 2025, the average center fielder is putting up a .244/.307/.386 slash, good for a 93 wRC+. In comparison, Thomas is performing better than the average center fielder offensively, which is a good sign for keeping his job.

However, his defense has taken a step backward since the start of the 2024 season. In his first two seasons, Thomas was worth +12 defensive runs saved and +13 outs above average, as he was named a finalist for the Gold Glove in center field for both 2022 and 2023. Since 2024, when he suffered a hamstring injury, he's been at -3 DRS and -2 OAA. With the defensive gap between him and McCarthy gone, Thomas will have to provide more value with the bat to keep the center field job.

There have been flashes of him showing more power, but he hasn't consistently been able to tap into that due to a poor batted ball profile. It's not a question of his ability to hit the ball hard, as both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate sit at 92.7 MPH and 43.3%, sitting in the 89th and 50th percentile among major league hitters. However, his ground ball rate still sits at an extremely high rate of 58.9%.

The ground ball rate remains the key issue holding him back as a hitter. His ability to hit the ball in the air will determine his ceiling as a hitter. Because of the exit velocity he can generate, getting the ball in the air more often will improve his ability to slug the baseball.

Breaking down his struggles slugging the baseball, the issue is the inability to pull the ball in the air. 75% of his pulled contact is on the ground and only 24.3% of his air contact is pulled. That's not a sustainable rate for producing consistent power, especially when Chase Field can be one of the toughest places to hit one out to center and the opposite field. It's also why he has zero home runs on the season despite a solid barrel rate of 7.8% per batted ball.

There are other concerns about his approach at the plate this season. Thomas hasn't necessarily been patient, sporting a 31.0% chase rate and a 27.5% whiff rate. That has translated to a microscopic 4.0% walk rate. He had gone 77 plate appearances between walks between April 17 and May 14.

The walk rate is an issue of its own but isn't a disqualifier if he can improve the batted ball contact. Improving the quality of contact will also translate to consistently higher batting averages and on-base percentages moving forward. Also, a stronger threat at the plate will be pitched more carefully, as teams will be less eager to challenge Thomas if he can do more damage when he makes contact.

The key for Thomas to establish himself as the everyday center fielder, or at least against right-handed pitchers, will be to improve his batted ball quality. The reason the team has been patient with him in center field is because of his higher offensive ceiling than McCarthy's. With 313 games and 1041 plate appearances, it's time for him to reward the team's patience and have the offensive breakout season he desperately needs.