Can Diamondbacks' Brandon Pfaadt Overcome this Brutal Challenge?

The Arizona Diamondbacks will have a chance to sweep their three-game series with the Colorado Rockies in their Sunday finale at Coors Field after winning the first two. First pitch is set for an early 12:10 p.m. Arizona time.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies Pitching Matchup

RHP Brandon Pfaadt (5.38 ERA) vs RHP Antonio Senzatela (6.72 ERA)

Brandon Pfaadt is at a crossroads in his 2025 season. The Diamondbacks need him to be much more successful, and consistently so, down the stretch. Pfaadt has undeniably delivered better results in his previous two starts, but the eye test has still left much to be desired.

He's allowed just two earned runs in both of his previous starts. However, many of his outs have been loud, and he threw just over 50% of his pitches for strikes his last time out — while somehow hitting three batters.

Pfaadt's hard-hit rate is 51.4%. His average exit velocity against is 92.6 MPH. These figures are both in the bottom 2% of MLB, and he hasn't picked up chases nor whiffs at even an average rate.

And as bad as his 5.38 ERA has been, his peripherals tell an even uglier tale. His expected ERA is 7.18, and the expected batting average against him is .328 — both first-percentile numbers per Statcast.

With that in mind, consider Coors Field, a hitter's paradise. Hard contact is known to leave Denver's confines at a high rate, and offers a low margin for error to fly-ball pitchers, especially arms like Pfaadt, who has been "lucky" to get hard-hit outs.

It's not that the Rockies are a formidable opponent by MLB standards, but they are a free-swinging club in a dangerous ballpark. Pfaadt will need the best command of his season to escape without an ugly box score, and will need to find a way to turn his stuff into swing-and-miss. If he doesn't, Sunday afternoon could get ugly.

For Rockies right-hander Antonio Senzatela, it may be his 15th start. Colorado may opt for an opener, but Senzatela will get the bulk.

Even accounting for Coors Field, he has not been an effective arm for Colorado. Senzatela throws a mid-90s four-seam, with a slider and curve serving as his primary put-away pitches. He also throws a changeup and sinker on occasion.

He's struck out just 4.44 batters per nine innings, and has been very susceptible to hard contact. He does have an above-average 47.9% ground ball rate, which could be trouble if Arizona's hitters are over-agressive.

The D-backs have seen Senzatela quite a bit in his Rockies career. He's 3-9 against Arizona with a 5.73 ERA.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies Lineups

(Check back later for lineups.)

Diamondbacks vs Rockies Bullpens

Manager Torey Lovullo was forced to turn to three of his high-leverage arms in Saturday's win. Ryan Thompson, Jalen Beeks and Shelby Miller each pitched scoreless innings. Though Beeks only threw 7 pitches, his outing was the second in as many days, and he'll likely be down.

Juan Morillo, Kyle Backhus and Kevin Ginkel each pitched Friday, and Tayler Scott hasn't thrown since Wednesday — that group may be asked to cover significant ground if Pfaadt can't deliver a lengthy start.